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龙与象：携手中国，赶超中国
听听印度人说些啥。 （观察者网 杨晗轶、王璐菲/译，原文见最后一页） 在中国主席习近平出访印度之前，外界对此次为期三日的国事访问有着极高的期待，认为两国经贸关系将迎来崭新的时代。刚刚结束的访问果然达到了这样的预期！新当选印度总理的纳伦德拉·莫迪曾许诺将拉动基础设施建设、扩充制造业；而去年就任国家主席的习近平，则致力于深化改革以及对外输出专业知识技术，以应对中国经济增长减速的挑战。此次习近平访印选的时间点可谓完美。 这是中国国家主席八年来首次访问印度，也是印度独立以来的第三次。巧合的是，不仅习近平是中国首位出生于1949年建国后的领导人，莫迪也是首位出生于1947年独立后的印度总统。两人都对各自所在地区乃至全世界抱有良好的政治意愿。中印两国的经济都面临着新挑战，都需要新风貌。 双方领导人表示，为了两国的和平进步，除了确保睦邻友好关系之外，还需建立强大的经济和文化联系。这一表态将“习莫会”推向了顶点。中国五年内将向印度投资200亿美元，虽低于之前媒体热炒的1000亿美元，可能也低于日本有意投向印度的330亿美元，但其手笔显然比过去14年在印投入4亿美元的美国要大得多。 中印两国为亚洲地区树立了新典范。中国和印度两个千百年来相依并存的文明古国，演化为当今两个庞大的经济体，中印之间的合作，将对亚洲地区的经济与地缘政治产生举足轻重的影响。 中印两国人口总计占全世界人口的三分之一。更重要的是，两大经济体都在全球经济中发挥显著的作用。中国出口贸易额占全球出口总额的16.8％（这一数字在三十年前约为1％），远远大于印度所占的1.6％。中印双边贸易总额已攀升至650亿美元，然而印度却面临着巨大的贸易赤字。或许中国在印度的200亿美元投资能帮助后者削减这个赤字。 ![]()
龙与象：在竞争中成长的伙伴 取中国之长，补印度之短 事实上，经过三十年炽热的增长，中国现已是仅次于美国的第二大经济体。中国在经济方面已经领先印度一大步——毕竟，中国于1978年便在邓小平的规划下，启动了经济改革和对外开放；而印度的经济自由化比中国晚了大约十年。 是的，在世界市场上，无论是皮革、纺织品、汽车和汽车零部件，中国与印度是竞争者。自1962年中印边境战争以来，两国偶有小摩擦。此次莫迪邀请中国国家主席访印，除了主动表达善意以及巩固与强大邻国的关系之外，还基于加强印度制造业和基础设施建设的现实考虑。 中国在世界市场能有今天的实力，一个关键的原因是在上世纪80年代，基建等资本密集行业很快就吸引到了外商直接投资，中国利用其庞大的劳动力，打造出世界首屈一指的大规模制造业。反观印度，披着民主外衣，却是自身官僚体系的牺牲品。多年以来，印度未能改善基础设施恶劣的条件，几乎停留在英国殖民者离开时的水平。 ![]()
9月17日，国家主席习近平在古吉拉特邦艾哈迈达巴德会见印度总理莫迪。这是会见前，莫迪在习近平下榻的宾馆前迎接习近平和夫人彭丽媛 此时此刻，印度最迫切需要的便是改善基础设施。供应紧张导致商品和服务价格居高不下。印度还需加速发展制造业。然而，这些进程还缺少灵活的推动者：在政府层面和官僚层面，决策进度缓慢；在银行方面，由于很难判断资产流动性，所以放贷时处处提防。 莫迪曾做出“智能城市”、“子弹头列车”、“经济特区”以及“工业园”等一系列承诺。在不久的将来，中国将帮助印度建设两个工业园：位于古吉拉特邦的输变电设备工业园，以及位于马哈拉施特拉邦的汽车零部件工业园。 双方签署了一系列谅解备忘录以及合作协议，涵盖改善印度铁路系统、进一步向印度开放医药市场、开发外太空、视听产品生产等方面。中国还将向印度公司提供信贷额度。这将为两国以及两国商界开创一个双赢的局面。 对印度来说，关键点在于，莫迪能否成功地推动城市发展和建设出口导向型经济？或者说，印度现在还有可能奋起直追甚至超过中国吗？ 一些分析家认为，印度经济的基数较低，大量有形资产的创造以及趋于年轻的人口，都是促使印度经济增长回到正轨的利好因素。目前，按大多数社会经济指标衡量，无论是人均国内生产总值（GDP）还是汽车保有量；是互联网用户数还是城镇人口；甚至儿童死亡率等方面，中印两国的差距都相当明显。中国年复一年以前不见古人的速度增长，直到几个月前才有所减缓。 世界经济论坛最新发布的全球竞争力排名（衡量国家有多适宜经商的指标）显示，中国的整体竞争力在全球排第28位，印度排第71位。在基础设施和宏观经济环境这两个单项指标上，中国分列第46位和第10位;印度则居第87位和第101位。 中国在2011年前的5年内铺设的铁轨长度，几乎是印度自独立以来67年内铺设的铁轨总长的四倍。这是中国进步的一大里程碑。并且，在国内生产总值（GDP）这一关键指标上，中国还能以7%左右的增长率昂首阔进，而印度却难以突破5%的瓶颈。 印度的不幸并非只在于改革起步较晚，政令阻塞才是导致供应紧张的真正原因。过去几十年中，无数私募股权、合资企业和外商直接投资推动了中印两国的增长，未来预计将有更多资本进入印度。印度当前需要做的，在是土地、环境和法律审批程序上采用“单一窗口模式”快速通过，才能让雄心勃勃的蓝图变成现实。否则，一旦历史重演，政策推行陷入僵局，投资者和国内公司都可能对印度政府假大空的承诺失去信心。 ![]()
9月18日，国家主席习近平在新德里同印度总理莫迪举行会谈。这是会谈后，习近平与莫迪共同会见记者 中国能从印度取什么经？ 视线转向中国。中国虽仍领先于其西面邻国印度，但自身也面临着经济增速放缓的威胁。得益于劳动力廉价、成本低、融资便捷及决策迅速等优势，中国的增长一向靠数字说话。可是今年，腾飞的巨龙失去了扶摇直上的势头，正在力争保住7.5%的年度增长目标。中国的工业生产、出口、石油进口、房地产价格及发电量的增长率都在缩水，成本则在螺旋上升。这令国际市场感到不安，因为中国的贸易对世界经济至关重要。 举几个例子。研究人员指出，中国的汽车出口业正处于2008年全球金融危机以来最差水平。中国的轮胎生产和橡胶使用量减少，亚洲产胶国供应量提升，导致世界市场上橡胶价格下跌。同时，中国正在调整某些领域的政策，例如从支撑棉花价格、堆积库存供给棉纺厂转变为直接补贴棉农，这导致世界市场上棉花价格忽上忽下。 中国应对经济放缓的第一个举措是，央行向五大银行大量注资增加流动性，监管部门也着手整肃违规交易。据报，中国的融资成本正在上升。 此时此刻，中国企业寻找更青嫩的投资牧场就说得通了。中印两国的合作甚至可以着眼于整合中国在计算机硬件与电信方面的实力，以及印度在软件方面的实力。毕竟，在1990年代时，印度国营机械部门在基础设施和有形资产建设方面落后于中国，是印度的私营企业利用计算机软件技术及英语人才的优势，以软件和外包的方式，创造了数百万就业岗位并带来了经济收入。 同样，与东南亚诸国及中国相比，印度在科学研究、小众电子及半导体行业、精密仪器仪表设计、医疗和制药等领域的成就值得夸耀。 此外，印度透明的银行系统及严格的资本市场监管对境外机构投资者前来投资是一种鼓励，中国或许可以从中汲取经验。印度的公司治理和对知识产权的尊重，（哈哈 ）也应成为中国同行仿效的榜样。 新话语，新时代 随着地缘政治问题逐渐得到解决，中印两国互相竞争、携手合作比过去更加势在必行。两国领导人看来也认识到了这一点。习近平说：“‘世界工厂’和‘世界管理后台’的强强联合，将形成最具竞争力的生产基地、最具吸引力的消费市场”；莫迪也抒发了类似的情怀：“印度与中国每一次共同合作、共同成长，都带动了世界发展和经济繁荣。” 两国元首都巧妙地谈及要努力保持边境和平，这对经济发展至关重要。中印签署的合作协议甚至还包括了艺术、文化、电影、文化交流等方面。不要忘了，两国的本土医学各有专长——中国有穴位按摩法、针灸术和太极拳，印度有阿育吠陀长生术和瑜伽。 习近平访印期间，除为公司提供信贷额度以外，中印两国银行业还达成了协作，这是两国金融关系的又一项重要里程碑。 不过，毫无疑问，印度在收入和经济方面的核心指标上与中国的差距还很大。印度人均GDP为1250美元，远远低于中国6700美元的水平，及其他收入更高的发展中国家。汽车拥有量是衡量制造业的关键标准，根据世界各地汽车协会发布的数据，印度的汽车普及率很低，每千人只拥有2.6辆汽车，而中国的千人汽车拥有量为16.2辆，巴西为19.0辆，韩国为30.7辆。 有人认为，中国龙正在失去进攻性，而蹲伏多年的印度虎则已准备好腾空飞跃。不过正如诺贝尔经济学奖得主、哈佛大学经济学教授阿马蒂亚·森多年前所指出的：“把中国和印度看成竞争者是错误的。两国应思考能从对方身上学习什么。从能源资源、大宗商品到商业、艺术、文化，两国都有很大的合作空间。中国与印度如能在这些领域取得进展，或许能为解决两国地缘政治分歧打下基础。” 毕竟，中印之间的文化、政治、宗教、经济交流源远流长，有至少2000多年的历史。中印在新时代联手合作，可以为亚洲注入一股巨大的新力量。 CHINA-INDIA: PARTNERING TO GROW Vatsala Kamat（the columnist is a financial/business writer. At present, also is Consulting Writer for Mint, India） Expectations were running high that, the three-day visit of the Chinese President Xi Jinping to India, will flag off a new era in economic and business relations between the two countries. And it did! For, Narendra Modi, India’s newly elected Prime Minister, it is the pledged to drive infrastructure growth in the country and expand manufacturing. The timing could not have been better. Xi, who also took office last year, is faced with the challenge of a slowdown in China’s growth rate and, is committed to reform and taking Chinese expertise across borders. For India, it is the first visit of the Chinese president in eight years and the third since independence. Coincidentally, while Xi is China’s first leader born after the 1949 revolution, Modi is India’s first Prime Minister born after independence in 1947. Both have strong political good will in their regions and world too. Both countries are faced with new economic challenges. Both need changes in the economic ethos. MEETING OF MINDS: The meeting culminated in both leaders voicing the need to have strong economic and cultural ties, besides secure border relations for peaceful progress. A commitment of US$ 20 billion may be less than the much-hyped expectation of US$100 billion. While this may be less than Japan’s intent to bring in US$ 33 billion, it is surely a long haul from US$ 400 million that came into India over the last 14 years. A new paradigm is set to emerge in the Asian region. As two sizeable economies that morphed from ancient civilisations that co-existed for many centuries cooperate, it will have a bearing on economic and geopolitical issues of the region. India and China house a third of the world’s population. More importantly, both economies play a significant role in global economics. China accounts for 16.8% of the world’s export trade (from about 1% three decades back), far greater than India is at 1.6%. Bilateral trade between China and India has risen to US$65 billion, with a significant trade deficit. The investment of US$20 billion by China into India could help trim this. INDIA TO HARNESS CHINA’S EDGE Indeed, China is the second largest economy after the United States of America, with scorching pace of growth for over three decades. It took a big leap ahead of India, given that it started the process of economic reform soon after Deng Xiaoping took control of his country in 1978 and, opened the gates for investment. Indian liberalization began about a decade later. Yes, in world markets, be it leather, textiles, automobiles and auto-components, China and India compete. But, Modi’s invitation to the Chinese President apart from initiating good will and strengthening relationship with the mighty neighbor with whom there have been border skirmishes since the 1962 war, stems from the need to beef up manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. A key reason for China’s power in world markets is that in the ‘80s, China was quick to attract foreign direct investment into capital-intensive areas like infrastructure and, harness its large workforce into mass manufacturing excellence. India, on the other hand, was a victim of its own bureaucracy in the garb of a democracy. It failed to push the cause of better infrastructure, which continues to languish at levels, barely ahead of where the British left it. Infrastructure is the need of the hour for India. Supply constraints have driven up prices of goods and services. Manufacturing needs to be stepped up. Institutions that drive these are not nimble-footed. Decision- making at the government level and bureaucratic layers is slow. Liquidity is not easy to access and banks are wary to lend. Modi has promised “smart citites”, “bullet trains” and “special economic zones” and “industrial parks”. China will now help to build two industrial parks- one in Gujarat for power equipment and, another in Maharashtra for auto parts. Memorandum of understanding and cooperation pacts were signed for improving railways, allowing greater access for pharmaceutical companies into China, space exploration and even in audio-visual production. Chinese line of credit could also be accessible for Indian firms. This would be a win-win for both nations, private companies. The key point for India is, Will Modi succeed in fuelling urban growth and export-led economy in India? Or, is it too late in the day to play catch up with, if not outpace China? A section of analysts say that India’s base is lower and the better creation of physical assets and the younger demographics make a strong case for India’s growth bouncing back on track to growth. At present, the gap between the two countries on most social indicators, be it per capita gross domestic product (GDP), passenger cars, internet users, urban population and even child mortality, is wide as China had until few months back clocked unprecedented growth year after year. According to the World Economic Forum's latest Global Competitiveness Rankings -- an indicator of how business friendly a country is -- China places 28th in the world for overall competitiveness; India ranks 71st. On infrastructure and macroeconomic environment, China ranks 46th and 10th respectively; India ranks 87th and 101st. Another milestone of progress shows that China added nearly four times the railway tracks in kilometres over five years to 2011 that India added in 67 years since independence. And, on the critical gross domestic product (GDP) measure, China is chugging at around 7%, whereas India buckled to below 5%. India’s woes are not just in that the reform process started late. What led to supply constraints is, policy logjam. Money may come in as seen from the myriad of private equity, joint ventures and foreign direct investment that has fuelled growth in both the countries in the last few decades. What India requires now, to get all the ambitious plans off the drawing board is quick and single-window clearances on land, environment and legal. Else, history may repeat in that investors and domestic corporates may lose confidence in the country’s tall promises. WHAT CAN CHINA LOOK FOR IN INDIA? Turn in to China. In spite of being ahead of its western neighbor, growth rate in China is threatening to slowdown. Riding on cheap labour, low cost and easy finance and quick policy decision, the name of the game in China has been numbers. But, this year, the flying dragon has lost tailwind and is struggling to reach the targeted 7.5% annual growth rate. Growth rates in industrial production, exports, oil imports, real estate prices and electricity output are showing contraction, as costs are spiraling too. This has already sent jitters through world markets, given that China’s trade is critical to world economics. To cite a few examples, Chinese auto exports are at its worst since the 2008 global crisis, according to research analysts. A fall in tyre production in China and rubber usage along with higher supply in the Asian belt has brought down prices of rubber in world markets too. Meanwhile, China’s policy is changing towards some sectors. The change in China’s cotton policy to support cotton growers directly instead of supporting cotton prices and piling up inventory to supply to mills, has set cotton prices yo-yoing in world market. In its first reaction to slowdown, China’s central bank is boosting liquidity by injecting large funds into five big banks. Regulators are also cracking down on banking transactions. Further, costs are reportedly rising in China. In such times, it makes sense for Chinese companies to look for greener investing pastures. Indo-China cooperation could aim at even combining China’s strength in computer hard ware and telecommunications, with India’s software. After all, in the 90s when Indian state-run machinery lagged behind China, in building infrastructure and physical assets, private enterprises used computer software skills and the expertise of educated English-speaking population to bring millions of jobs and dollars in, by way of software and outsourcing opportunities. Likewise, scientific research, niche electronics and semi-conductor industries, precision instrumentation and design, health care and pharmaceuticals are areas where India has a feather in its cap over its southeast Asian brethren, including China. India’s transparent banking system, tough capital market regulation that encourages foreign institutional investors to invest, could be learning points for China. India’s corporate governance and respect for intellectual property rights can be examples for Chinese counterparts to emulate. XI-MODI RHETORIC It is more imperative now than ever before that as even as the geopolitical issues gradually get ironed out, the two nations join hands to co-operate even as they compete. The leaders seem to have taken cognizance too. Xi said, "The combination of 'the world's factory' and 'the world's back office' will produce the most competitive production base and the most attractive consumer market." Modi too, carrying a similar sentiment said "whenever India and China have worked and grown together, this has also led to the development and economic prosperity of the world." Both nation heads subtly spoke of trying to maintain peace at the border, critical to economic progress. Cooperation pacts seem to have been signed even in areas like art and culture, cinema and exchanges between cultural institutions. Not to forget, that both countries have their respective specialization in native therapy – China in acupressure, acupuncture and taichi and India in Ayurveda and yoga. The tie-up between banks of the two nations during Xi’s visit is an important milestone in financial relationship besides offering line of credit to grow business between the two nations. However, there’s no doubt that on core income and economic parameters, India has a long way to go given that it’s GDP per capita of US$1,250 is way below that of China at US$6,700 and rest of the developing world, which is even higher at US$ 10,000. On one of the key manufacturing benchmarks, available data from the automobile associations across the globe suggests that India’s auto penetration is low with sales at 2.6 vehicles per 1,000 compared to China’s 16.2, Brazil’s 19.0 and South Korea’s 30.7. That said, the Dragon (China) is losing aggression, while the Tiger is set to leap after crouching for a couple of years. But as Amartya Sen, Lamont Professor of Economics at Harvard University, USA and Nobel Economic Prize Winner pointed out years ago, “it was wrong to view China and India as competitors. They should think of what they can learn from each other. From energy resources and commodities to business, art and culture, there’s scope for the two nations to work together. Progress in these areas may be stepping stones to align geopolitical differences too. After all, over at least twenty centuries there were cultural, political, religious and economic interactions between the two nations. The Chindia combine could work to create a new Asian juggernaut. Ends… | 
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发表于 2014-9-24 01:39:30
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