兔鹰熊口水贴

indy

West becoming nationalist
By Gordon Brown
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BY THE TIME of the European parliament elections in June, this year’s rightward drift in European politics will have turned into a tidal wave.
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Ultra-nationalist demagogues and populist-nationalists are now leading the polls in Italy, the Netherlands, France, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, and running second in Germany and Sweden.
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There are two hard-right groupings in the European parliament – “Identity and Democracy” and “European Conservatives and Reformists”. Between them, they could secure as much as 25% of the June vote.
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But even more ominously, in almost every part of Europe including Britain, these factions are forcing the hand of the traditional centre-right parties – which, one by one, are capitulating to ever more extreme anti-immigration, anti-trade and anti-environment positions.
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WEST HAS TURNED PROTECTIONIST
The rightward shift is, of course, a western and not just European phenomenon, with Trump 2.0 advocating a far more aggressive protectionist and nationalist agenda than Trump 1.0.
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But Europe stands out from the US in one important respect. While the US economy roars forward – even if the average American voter does not feel the full benefits – Europe, and especially its industrial engine-room, Germany, continues to suffer from near-zero growth and stagnation in terms of living standards.
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And having lived through a decade of consistently low growth, the continent is now divided between an optimistic but declining minority, who still hold to the expectation that a rising tide lifts all boats, and the growing and more pessimistic majority who now see life as a zero-sum game...
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EUROPE ENTERS DOOM LOOP
A low-growth economy creates a doom loop as pessimism begets a blame culture – and the more we blame others, the more pessimistic we become.
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Once people convince themselves that the state of their economy is so weak that they can only improve their lot at someone else’s expense, they vote for parties that specialise in targeting those they think are holding them back – immigrants, foreigners and minorities.
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These parties offer nothing in terms of economic policies to generate long-term growth. The result is that zero-sum politics exacerbates the downward economic trends, and this, in turn, intensifies and widens the appeal of zero-sum thinking.
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The problem Europe now faces is that the very measures it must adopt to escape this doom loop – new investment in technology, clean energy and medical advances – are being rendered impossible by its policy of fiscal retrenchment.
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UNABLE TO INVEST IN GROWTH
The European growth and stability pact rules out member states having deficits above 3%, and perhaps as importantly, makes no distinction between public spending on consumption and spending on investment.
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Added to that, Germany has a debt brake enshrined in its constitution which limits the government’s structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP. This casts a shadow over the whole of Europe, with the German people facing severe cuts in public spending – cuts that will torpedo any chance of repairing the country’s beleaguered infrastructure and frustrating its transition from heavy engineering to IT and AI-based industries.
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While China can subsidise to the point of undercutting Europe on electric cars, batteries and other new technologies, and Bidenomics is running huge deficits that are stimulating the economy, Europe is stuck in a fiscal bind.
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The European recovery and resilience facility ends for good in 2026, with no replacement. The stability and growth pact, which has restrictive conditions that were suspended during the Covid crisis, resumes its tough regime next year.
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France and 11 other European countries are already in trouble, unable to invest more because they are already running allegedly unsustainable deficits.
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ANTI-ENVIRONMENTALISM RISES
So, at the very time that investment needs to increase, it is likely to fall. And the European election results are unlikely to make things any better.
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Essential green investment will fall down the agenda as anti-environmentalist parties gain an upper hand.
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Protectionism will become the order of the day with trade wars, which hit Europe harder than anywhere else. Unless something gives, a low-growth Europe will remain stuck in its rut – and the populist xenophobes will triumph.
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[This is an extract from a 29 April, 2024 essay by former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown printed in the Guardian, a UK newspaper.]

indy

「親愛的Khan先生，

我們就有關國際刑事法院（ICC）可能考慮對以色列總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡和其他以色列官員發出國際逮捕令的報道撰寫此信。

此類行為是非法的，缺乏法律依據，如果實施，您和您的機構(國際刑事法院)將受到嚴厲制裁。
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最後，以色列和美國都不是國際刑事法院的成員，因此不屬於你們的管轄範圍。 如果你發出逮捕以色列領導人的逮捕令，我們不僅將視為對以色列主權的威脅，也是對美國主權的威脅。

我國在《美國軍人保護法》中表明了我們將竭盡全力保護這項主權。

美國不會容忍國際刑事法院對我們盟友的政治化攻擊。 你以以色列為目標，我們也會以你為目標。 如果你繼續採取報告中指出的措施，我們將停止美國對國際刑事法院的所有支持，制裁你的員工和同事，並禁止你以及您的家人來美國。

你被我們警告了。」

以上這封信是美國參議員公開威脅國際刑事法院也威脅其工作人員。我還記得之前國際刑事法院向俄羅斯總統發出拘票時，台灣的媒體是怎麼報導的，他們稱之為「伸張正義的一步」。

很可惜這一步遇到美國，才剛剛想跨，膝蓋就直接被打斷了。

indy

大國博弈，外交比的不是金錢而是對抗的實力。一千萬美金援烏還要遮遮掩掩，做好事敲鑼打鼓都來不及了，彷彿上摩鐵還要遮車牌號碼...

被踢爆了就哭哭啼啼，說自己國家弱小，有多少的不得已，什麼叫做「國難財」，這就叫做國難財。

indy

「中塞傳統友誼深厚，兩國關係經受住國際風雲變幻的考驗，樹立起國與國關係的典範。2016年兩國建立全面戰略夥伴關係以來，雙邊關係實現跨越式發展，取得歷史性成就。兩國政治互信堅如磐石，高質量共建『一帶一路』成果豐碩，人員往來更加密切，鐵桿友誼深入人心。

中塞合作建立在平等互利基礎上，符合兩國根本利益和長遠利益。

中方願同塞方一道，不忘初心、攜手前行，開創動力更強、領域更廣、質量更高的合作新局面。我期待以這次訪問為契機，同武契奇總統就雙邊關係以及其他共同關心的問題深入交換意見，共話友誼、共商合作、共謀發展，規劃兩國關係發展新藍圖。我相信，這次訪問一定會取得豐碩成果，譜寫中塞關係發展新篇章。」

indy

（@晨枫 晨大有空聊聊这个主题？）



中國1-3月外資投資大幅減少56%，內需不振，資金流入恐長期鈍化

《放. 新聞》2023年7月實施的反間諜法修正案加強了外資的警惕感，日經新聞報導，根據中國國家外貨管理局於10日公佈的1至3月國際收支資料，外資企業直接投資顯著減少，與去年同期相比下降了56％。這主要是由於中國內需不足，導致外資企業在再投資方面猶豫不前，進而使資金流入變得緩慢。

以下是日經新聞報導全文：

外國企業對工廠建設等的直接投資為103億美元的逆差。儘管新投資超過了撤資或業務縮減所需的資本回收金額，但仍低於去年同期的水平。

外資直接投資在2022年4至6月的上海封城導致經濟嚴重混亂後急劇下降。到了2023年7至9月，首次出現資金流出超額的負數記錄。

中國內需短缺問題持續存在，對經濟增長的期望正在逐漸削弱。包含在對中國投資中的國內現地子公司等相關企業的債務已達到88億美元的逆差。海外母公司正加緊從現地子公司撤資。

外資的利潤回復步伐緩慢。據國家統計局統計，1至3月的外資總利潤較去年同期增加了超過10％，達約3700億元人民幣。但仍未回復到2021年1至3月的約5000億元水平。投資減少往往難以帶動利潤增長。

投資縮小的背景包括美中在先進半導體領域的對立以及2023年7月實施的改革反間諜法。外資認為該法案的實施增加了被起訴的風險，因此加強了警惕。

外資直接投資的減少可能導致中國經濟停滯長期化的擔憂。由於海外資金和人才等的吸引力減弱，技術創新和生產效率改善的速度可能減緩。
#放新聞

indy

CHINA

China is now fearless drawing red lines with US and no longer can be bullied. 史无前例！
中美天津會談. 史無前例! 第一次有一個國家
Unprecedented! China-U.S. Tianjin Talks
Unprecedented in history.
For the first time there is a country

謝鋒: 敦促美方改變極其危險的對華政策
Xie Feng: Urge the U.S. to change its extremely dangerous China policy

中美最近這次會談，比上次的阿拉斯加會談，還要讓世界吃驚，還要讓美國震驚。因為在這次會談中，中國第一次完整、系統、尖銳地痛斥了美國的反華行徑，並且開出了美國改正錯誤政策與言行，以及中國關心的應當糾錯的個案的清單，這是美國從未遇到的外交對手。因為最近這一百多年來，美國一直雄踞世界霸主地位，它先後戰勝了西班牙、英國、日本、德國、蘇聯等競爭者，保持了地球村村長的位置。可以說，從來沒有一個國家，像中國這樣給美國開清單，劃紅線。在這之前，只有美國這樣對別人的份。
The recent talks between China and the United States surprised the world even more than the last meeting in Alaska, and shocked the United States even more. Because in this meeting for the first time, China has completely, systematically and sharply denounced the anti-China behavior of the United States, and issued a list of correcting the wrong policies, words and deeds of the United States, as well as individual cases that China cares about and should be corrected. This is a diplomacy that the United States has never encountered an  opponent. Because the United States has dominated the world for more than a hundred years. It has successively defeated competitors such as Spain, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, and the Soviet Union, and maintained its position as the head of the global village. It can be said that there has never been a country that has issued a list and drawn red lines for the United States like China.  Before that, only the United States had this kind of attutude to others.

是的，在地球上，在美國眼里，主要有六類國家。第一類是盟友，比如以色列、英國、法國、德國、意大利、加拿大、澳大利亞等;第二類是被占領國家，比如日本、韓國;第三類是準盟友，比如歐洲的一些國家、亞洲的菲律賓、非洲的南非、美洲的巴西等。第四類是戰略合作的國家，比如沙特、印度、土耳其、埃及等;第五類是一些可以被它任意欺負的弱國;第六類是與美國敵對，但綜合實力確實差距很大的國家，比如伊朗，委內瑞拉、古巴、朝鮮等國家。這五類國家，均只能仰仗、逢迎、周旋或屈服於美國的外交施壓。只有俄羅斯與中國例外。俄羅斯憑借戰略武器和軍事實力，常常與美國針鋒相對，但也從來沒有在外交上直接訓斥美國人。而中國，因為政治、軍事、經濟、科技等綜合實力的增強，具備了全面抗壓能力，也是第一個直接在外交場合訓斥美國人，給美國人劃紅線的國家。
Yes, on earth, in the eyes of the United States, there are mainly six types of countries. The first category is allies, such as Israel, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, etc.;
The second category is occupied countries, such as Japan and South Korea;
The third category is quasi-allies, such as some countries in Europe, the Philippines in Asia, South Africa in Africa, and Brazil in the Americas.
The fourth category is countries with strategic cooperation, such as Saudi Arabia, India, Turkey, Egypt, etc.;
The fifth category is some weak countries that can be bullied by it at will;
The sixth category is countries that are hostile to the United States, but their overall strength is indeed far behind, such as Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea and other countries.
These five types of countries can only rely on, flatter, deal with, or succumb to the diplomatic pressure of the United States.  The only exceptions are Russia and China. Relying on its strategic weapons and military strength, Russia often confronts the United States tit for tat, but it has never directly reprimanded the Americans diplomatically. China, on the other hand, has a comprehensive ability to resist pressure due to the enhancement of its political, military, economic, technological and other comprehensive strengths. It is also the first country to directly reprimand Americans on diplomatic occasions and draw red lines for Americans.

美國人是非常震驚的，華盛頓這幾天所有精英都在體會中國這樣做的意義。這一次中國創造了六個前所未有。第一是中國外交部副部長謝峰十分系統、完整的訓斥了美國人，前所未有。第二是在美國人之前發布中國人的完整批評發言，對對方的發言一字不發，前所未有。第三是直接給美國人開列改正錯誤的問題清單，前所未有。第四是拒絕討論美國人的問題清單，拒絕在美國不改正錯誤的情況下討論合作，前所未有。第五是直接否定美國對中美關系的定義，前所未有。第六是直接為美國人劃上搞好中美關系的底線，前所未有。
Americans are very shocked. All the elites in Washington these days are realizing the significance of China's actions.
This time China has created six unprecedences.
The first is that Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng has systematically and completely reprimanded the Americans, which is unprecedented.
The second is to publish the complete critical speech of the Chinese before the Americans, without saying a single word of the other party's speech, which is unprecedented.
The third is to directly issue a list of questions for Americans to correct their mistakes, which is unprecedented.
The fourth is the refusal to discuss the American list of problems, and the refusal to discuss cooperation without the United States correcting its mistakes, which is unprecedented.
The fifth is to directly deny the United States' definition of Sino-US relations, which is unprecedented.
The sixth is to directly draw the bottom line for Americans to improve Sino-US relations, which is unprecedented.

王毅外長劃定的三條底線，美國幾乎無法遵守，這也意味著中國從今往後，不打算在美國人一意孤行的情況下，單方面忍讓改善雙方關系。王毅說，第一，美國不得挑戰、詆毀甚至試圖顛覆中國特色社會主義道路和制度。這是中方必須堅守的核心利益。第二，美國不得試圖阻撓甚至打斷中國的發展進程。中國人民當然也有過上更美好生活的權利，中國也有實現現代化的權利，現代化不是美國的專權，這涉及人類的基本良知和國際公義。中方敦促美方盡快取消對華實施的所有單邊制裁、高額關稅、長臂管轄以及科技封鎖。第三，美國不得侵犯中國國家主權，更不能破壞中國領土完整。不得在涉疆、涉藏、涉港等問題上損害中國主權。至於台灣問題，更是重中之重。如果“台獨”膽敢挑釁，中國有權利采取任何需要的手段予以制止。我們奉勸美方在台灣問題上務必恪守承諾，務必慎重行事。大家只要認真看一看這三條底線，就可以看出，美國人可能永遠不會遵守這三條底線，中國敢於劃出來，就說明中國這次是鐵了心要與美國鬥爭到底。要麽美國

indy

indy 发表于 2024-5-10 23:37
CHINA

China is now fearless drawing red lines with US and no longer can be bullied. 史无前例！

https://www.facebook.com/share/p ... AR/?mibextid=xfxF2i

indy

美歐無法就俄羅斯聯邦凍結資產的使用條款達成一致 - 紐約時報

在越來越沉重的援助烏克蘭財政壓力下，美國與英國不斷透過影響力說服盟友凍結俄羅斯的海外資產，並轉移給烏克蘭。在牽涉廣泛的工作層級討論中，法國、德國、義大利、印尼、日本和沙烏地阿拉伯並不同意英美的立場。

這些國家認為，這樣一個危險的步驟可能會開創一個危險的先例，並且導致未來法律訴訟和在俄羅斯的資產遭到報復性沒收的結果。

目前各國的意見主要集中凍結的俄羅斯資產所衍生的利潤的問題上——在他們看來，轉移利潤的步驟對世界金融體系的風險較小。

在七月即將舉行的G7會議中，凍結俄羅斯資產依然是討論的重點。

儘管檯面上的理由冠冕堂皇，但是核心的問題則是一個大家心理都很清楚但沒有人願意說破的事實，即 - 俄羅斯如果贏得戰爭，這些凍結的資產勢必得要歸還俄羅斯，那麼今天決定移轉給烏克蘭的資產，就得自己墊還這一大筆錢，因為那時候烏克蘭已經無法償還了。

俄烏戰爭，最終還是得以談判結束，「歸還凍結資產」勢必是談判的條件之一，這個問題不可能繞過，也不可能消失。

indy

國務卿布林肯今晚表示，由於「外國代理人」法，美國將限制格魯吉亞公民的簽證。 他說：「我們看到了針對和平抗議者的恐嚇和暴力活動的明確證據。」

布林肯也表示，他希望格魯吉亞領導人「為了他們的民主和歐洲大西洋的願望」重新考慮該法律。

背景：
「外國代理人」的全名為「外國影響透明度法」，內容規定非政府組織(NGO)和媒體機構如果每年有2成以上資金是來自外國，就必須將自己註冊為「外國代理人」，受到司法部門的監督，否則將面臨9600美元（約新台幣29.5萬元）罰款；未登記且作為外國影響力代理人的個人，也會被判5年有其徒刑。

事實上，引起格魯吉亞這波動亂的「外國影響透明度法」，是仿效美國於1938年針對遊說及接受外國政府指揮的組織制定的《外國代理人登記法》（FARA），但美國認為格魯吉亞的「外國影響透明度法」限制了格魯吉亞的民主自由，格魯吉亞境內的NGO 因為害怕金流被公開，於是煽動群眾走上街頭與政府對抗。

indy

'You can’t ignore [China], you have to do business there, even if you decide not to do business there, you need to understand what’s going on' – JPMorgan

Details in comments

indy

indy

「愛沙尼亞將盡一切可能讓俄羅斯屈服......在此之後，才有可能開始結束烏克蘭戰爭的談判......」 - 愛沙尼亞總統阿拉爾·卡里斯

這就是為什麼我在直播中說，戰爭會持續到2025年。

indy

When the sanctions (tariffs) are used, it means the country has an inefficient manufacturing industry that will further be propped up by subsidies. As is the case in US protecting its weak car making industry that already relies heavily on parts from China and company partnerships.
The propaganda in US over China is hilarious with the Xinjiang lie and spying lie.
The US is in free-fall because of 40 years of neoliberalism.
It has no answers to its inflation which is now created by stagnated growth. Why? The outsourcing crippled its manufacturing sector and wants to blame China lol.
It just wont admit it allowed its capitalists to gain higher profits at the risk of its job markets. That means, when supply no longer meets demand you are headed for a collapse.
The US is headed for a collapse due to the tariffs.
The ONLY saviour is China circumventing those tariffs by using Mexico as a hub.
The west cannot even house growth from migration because it lacks housing, medical, and social services like education expansion, let alone its infrastructure reduction.
Whereas China can take massive migration.
But should it? No.
Does China need to? No
Does the west? Yes.

indy

紐約大學改造示威學生

關於美國大學校園近日的示威，《紐約時報》（國際版）2024年5月18日刋登了一篇題為「大學要求道歉」的報道，作者是GINIA BELLAFANTE。

如果這事發生在中國，美國政客必然群起而攻之，必然要制裁大學校長。

以下是節譯，英文原文全文在後面。

紐約州稱其為「恢復性」；抗議者稱該計劃為強迫性悔改

4月22日，Ellis Geary等幾十名學生和教職員工在紐約大學示威，學校報警，她和其他幾十名學生被警察拘捕。

幾天後，剛剛完成歷史學博士學位的Ellis Geary 收到負責學生事務的院長辦公室的電郵：「生活在和處理這種痛苦的經歷會喚起各種情緒和複雜的感覺，這可能會影響你集中注意力和感到安全的能力。辦公室承諾會提供指導、鼓勵和支援」。

學運份子在紀律過程中被要求做「道德」家課。

大學對一些學生啟動了紀律處分程序，一些學生需要完成一套49頁的閱讀和功課——被稱為「道德誠信系列」（Ethos Integrity Series），指稱會幫助示威者在「道德推理」和「道德決策」中「進步」。

除了「道德誠信系列」外，一些學生獲派一份「反思紙」，細節由「學生行為辦公室」提供，學生要回答的問題包括：「你的價值觀是什麼？ 」、「你的決定與個人價值觀一致嗎？ 」、「你做了什麼或還需要做什麼來把事情做好？ 」學生們被明確指示不得辯解，並要在5月29日之前交文。

紐約大學發言人約翰·貝克曼（John Beckman）通過電郵件辯護說，這些論文至少八年來一直是該大學的普遍制裁，是依賴「恢復性實踐」的紀律方法的一部分。

正如女學生Ellis Geary說：「我不會為反對種族滅絕而道歉。」 她說，她作為已經完成博士學位的人，風險是她的學歷表有被標上不服從的威脅。

#紐約大學
#改造
#新疆

The New York Times (International Edition)   18 May 2024
University requires apologies
BIG CITY

N.Y.U. calls it ‘restorative’; protesters call program a coerced confession

BY GINIA BELLAFANTE

At one point during the demonstrations at Columbia University in 1968, protesters took the acting dean of the New York liberal arts college hostage. Barricading his office door with furniture, they kept Henry Simmons Coleman, a former Navy man, locked up for 26 hours. When he was finally released, he seemed unfazed; there had been plenty to eat. Retaliation was not on his agenda. So little did it interest him, apparently, that he went on to write letters of recommendation on behalf of those captors who applied to law school.

Although officials at elite colleges have been spared kidnapping amid the current turmoil resulting from the war in Gaza, it is hard to imagine any administrator acting quite so forgivingly now. In the decades since the previous round of unrest, the modern university has become paradoxically more coddling and less conciliatory — caught between its subservience to the student consumer demanding an almost therapeutic comfort and a donor base insistent on its perceived authority, bending to no one.

Inevitably, questions around consequences for the student protests have become entangled in these contradictions. A few days after she and dozens of other students and faculty members were arrested at a demonstration at New York University on April 22, Ellis Geary, who had just completed a doctorate in history, received an email from the Office of the Dean of Students that she found perplexing.

“Living and processing this distressing experience evokes various emotions and complex feelings which may affect your ability to focus and feel safe,” it read. But the only “distressing experience,” to her mind, had been N.Y.U.’s decision to call in the police to quiet the protests in the first place. The office went on to promise “guidance, encouragement and support” for the problem it had created.

Activists are assigned “moral” homework in a disciplinary process.

While the university eventually moved to have the criminal charges against the students dropped, it initiated a disciplinary process against some of them (the university will not disclose how many) that seemed as if it had been conjured in the writers’ room of a dystopian sci-fi series. In order to return to the university, some students would be required to complete a 49page set of readings and tasks — “modules” — known as the Ethos Integrity Series, geared to help participants “make gains” in “moral reasoning” and “ethical decision making.” In a letter to the administration, Liam Murphy, a professor at the law school, called it “an intellectual embarrassment,” betraying the university’s mission as a training ground for independent thought and forcing students merely “to consume pages and pages of pablum.”

The Ethics Integrity Series was not the only command. Some students would be assigned a “reflection paper,” the details of which were laid out by the Office of Student Conduct. In it they would address several questions, among them: What are your values? Did the decision you made align with your personal values? What have you done or need still to do to make things right? Explicitly instructed not to “justify” their actions, the students were told to turn their papers in by May 29 in “12-point Times New Roman or similar font.”

In an email, John Beckman, a spokesman for N.Y.U., defended the protocols, explaining that these papers have been a common sanction at the university for at least eight years, part of an approach to discipline that relies on “restorative practices.” In this instance, though, the exercise cannibalizes the mission, favoring a will to dishonesty — inviting a charade of guilt. Anyone driven to protest is marching and chanting precisely as an expression of a certain set of fiercely held moral beliefs and values — not in deviation from them. Someone leaving her dorm room with a sign that says “Free Palestine” probably believes she is already doing what she needs to do “to make things right.”

As Ms. Geary put it, “I’m not going to apologize for opposing genocid

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英國夫婦：長期以來被媒體描述為世界上最受憎惡的國家，媒體告訴我們不要訪問中國。
我們決定探尋真相，144H免簽，終於抵達了中國，瞠目結舌的一起慶祝中國文化/美食/和熱情好客的中國大陸

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「北約不應在烏克蘭地面或領空部署武力。」 - 北約秘書長斯托爾滕貝格

「以不使北約成為衝突一方的方式援助烏克蘭符合北約的利益。聯盟的絕大多數成員都支持烏克蘭，但沒有多少聯盟成員願意介入俄羅斯與北約之間的全面衝突。因此，我認為，為了確保繼續向烏克蘭提供援助，有必要確保聯盟不直接介入衝突。否則，在援助烏克蘭問題上的團結將被打破。 」

「我們在援助問題上保持了團結，但在直接參與衝突問題上沒有統一。如果北約部隊直接介入衝突，在烏克蘭的地面或空中攻擊俄羅斯，北約將深陷衝突的泥潭之中。」

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（口水，都是口水，只有口水）


日經新聞：美國國防長官指中國在臺灣的軍演是「挑釁性的」 時隔1年半美中防長再次會面

《放. 新聞》日經新聞報導：美國國防部長奧斯汀與中國國防部長魏鳳和31日在新加坡會面。美中國防部長時隔1年半再次面對面會談。奧斯汀批評中國進行的涵蓋整個臺灣的大規模軍事演習是「挑釁性的行動」。
以下是日經新聞報導詳細全文：

雖然就維持對話達成共識，但在臺灣和南海問題上雙方仍有批評的交鋒。這再次凸顯了這兩個超級大國在印太地區的緊張關係。

這次會談是配合31日在新加坡舉行的亞洲安全對話會議(香格里拉對話)進行的。去年6月的香格里拉對話上，奧斯汀和時任中國國防部長魏凌也出席,但未能舉行美中國防部長會晤。

奧斯汀表達了對中國軍隊5月23、24日圍繞臺灣進行軍事演習的擔憂，並敦促中方剋制，停止施加壓力。魏則反駁稱「臺灣是中國的內政問題，外部勢力無權干涉」。

中國領導人習近平將臺灣列為核心利益。剛剛就任臺灣總統的賴清德被視為「獨立分裂勢力」。

美國印太軍司令部司令帕帕洛在接受日經訪問時稱，這次演習「像是一次演練(入侵)的排演」，並表示美軍正在為「今天、明天、下個月、明年」做準備，流露出高度警惕。

南海地區的緊張局勢也在升級。在南沙群島的愛潤礁和斯卡伯勒礁(中國稱黃岩島)附近，中國海警船頻頻向菲律賓船舶發射水砲，引發挑釁。

美軍加強與菲律賓的軍演，並派遣艦艇在南海巡視，警戒中國軍隊。奧斯汀在會談中表示，只要國際法許可，美國將繼續在該海域航行和飛行。

魏則堅決反對美國在南海的軍事演習和向菲律賓部署中程導彈，稱這會對該地區安全構成「重大威脅」。

烏克蘭局勢也成為議題。奧斯汀指出，中國一直支援俄羅斯的國防工業，要求中方停止。魏則反駁稱,，對於軍品出口，中方實行嚴格管控，既沒有向俄羅斯也沒有向烏克蘭提供武器。

美中關係在2月美方擊落一枚中國偵察氣球後達到高峰。此後雙方軍方對話中斷，軍機軍艦在空域和海域發生多起危險的接近事件。

這次會談得以實現，是因為拜登總統和習近平主席在去年11月的首腦會談上同意恢復國防對話。雙方都希望專注於國內政治和經濟。

本次會談，雙方確認將在年內就危機管控進行協商，並在數月內安排印太地區軍方司令級別通話。

雖然就維持對話達成共識、以降低意外衝突風險，但印太地區仍存在美中矛盾升級的隱憂。

中俄5月16日首腦會晤聯合宣告中明確提到，要加強兩軍合作，擴大聯合軍演規模。他們在日本海持續聯合演習，戰機也頻繁在日本週邊空域聯合飛行。

美國國家情報局長海因斯在5月初的國會聽證會上警告，中國希望俄羅斯能為臺海事務提供支援，而俄羅斯也沒有拒絕的理由。

中國軍力的快速擴張，使得印太地區的美中軍事平衡正向中國傾斜。而美國目前正忙於對烏克蘭和以色列的軍事支援，在亞洲的戰略部署捉襟見肘。

美國正試圖透過加強同盟國如日韓、日菲等的聯絡，來增強遏制力。這對包括日本在內的盟友來說，責任和角色將更加重要。
#放言快訊

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