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THE LIES AUSTRALIANS ARE TOLD ABOUT CHINA
By Michael Pascoe
A major economic milepost was passed last year when China started exporting more to the rest of the world than it did to “the West”.
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The US-led attempt to isolate China is demonstrably failing, but Australians tend to be only fed the American view.
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For as long as China has been rising, there has been an industry devoted to forecasting China’s fall. Whatever Beijing’s economic policy failings and problems – and there certainly are failings and problems – such forecasts continuously underestimate Chinese pragmatism, entrepreneurial drive and resilience.
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CHINA’S ECONOMY IS STILL EXPANDING
I’ve been watching China for long enough to remember when the country’s GDP growth falling below 10 per cent was called a disaster, when of course growth had to slow as the economy grew bigger. In very simplistic terms, 7 per cent of 200 is 40 per cent bigger than 10 per cent of 100.
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It’s happening again now with China’s GDP growth of about 5 per cent, down from 7 per cent a decade ago.
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In 2013, the recorded GDP growth of 7.7 per cent for a US$9.57 trillion economy meant an extra US$737 billion. In 2023, 5.2 per cent growth for a US$17.52 trillion economy means an extra US$911 billion (A$1.4 trillion in our money).
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COMPARE THE U.S.
Yes, China’s statistics have a rubbery quality and GDP doesn’t tell you everything, but that sort of growth is still enough to underwrite much of Australia’s economy.
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(By way of comparison, US real GDP grew by a strong 2.5 per cent last year, delivering current-dollar growth of US$1.61 trillion – about a trillion US dollars less than the rise in American government debt to US$34 trillion. China isn’t the only country with challenges.)
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WEST IS THREATENING CHINA
It was while checking China’s trade flows that the obviousness of our big bipartisan China lie hit me:
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We have been told we are spending $384 billion – and the rest, of course, call it an easy half-trillion – to buy nuclear-powered submarines to “protect our sea lanes”.
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That is the lie. We are buying the subs to threaten China’s sea lanes, specifically in its “front yard” of the South China Sea where American nuclear strike forces have been patrolling ever since they existed.
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It’s that perspective thing, yet again. How might the US react if China had nuclear-armed battle groups cruising the Caribbean?
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It’s a perspective the rest of the world can see, but we can’t or choose not to.
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So we’ll just keep repeating the big lie instead.
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[This is an extract from a 1 May 2024 essay by economics columnist Michael Pascoe published by The New Daily in Australia.] |
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