特朗普的对华安全政策

陈王奋起挥黄钺

江城如画里 发表于 2017-1-15 16:04
就我理解，中国在南海问题上的需求并不是无边无界的。站在政治家的角度考虑，关键还在于中国需要南海干什么 ...

南海修岛并不能保证中国的航线安全， 因为航线可以在任何地方被切断。

中国的策略是如果有人切断中国的航线，中国就会同等切断他的亚洲盟国的航线，主要是日本，韩国，加上准盟友台湾。

这个策略从来没有人提出来过，也不能提出来，估计每个人心里都明白，所以日本拼命反对，韩国部署萨德，美国开始的时候不太急，因为威胁的不是自己的生命线， 慢慢扯，最后是日韩台买单， 自己可以得到好处。

中国的趋势是不可阻挡的，既然砝码是准备卖的， 何必着急？

lorry

holycow 发表于 2017-1-18 02:15
Now this:

他刚把他的公司卖给海航。

大哈瑞

丢掉幻想，准备斗争。

美国发动战争从来都不是理性的。想打就打，无需站得住脚的理由，无需逻辑。美国知道早打中国比晚打好。再过20年，军事差距已经不大，就打不动了。

erha

Dracula 发表于 2017-1-16 05:02
Tillerson被问的问题是关于南海，和台湾无关。当然回答的时候也不会提到台湾，没有什么特别的深意。另外 ...

关于西方国家石油公司推出南海的消息能不能给个链接？我们公司这些年一直有越南的南海项目。越南是没有独立开发能力的。

Dracula

erha 发表于 2017-1-24 06:59
关于西方国家石油公司推出南海的消息能不能给个链接？我们公司这些年一直有越南的南海项目。越南是没有独 ...

关于其它西方石油公司退出南海，我看的报道在这儿，不过就一句，没什么细节。

Rex Tillerson, the former Exxon chief, didn’t get where he is by being nice to China. When Beijing tried to force his company to abandon a gas exploration project in the waters off Vietnam in 2008, ExxonMobil showed it the finger. BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and several others caved to Chinese pressure. ExxonMobil is still there, drilling on a Vietnamese license in waters also claimed by China.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01 ... he-south-china-sea/

关于Exxon Mobil在越南的开采，这里有更详细的报道

For years ExxonMobil, with Vietnam’s blessing and Tillerson as CEO (who spent over 40 years working for the energy giant until he resigned last month), has been laying the groundwork for a $10 billion natural gas project at the Ca Voi Xanh gas field. Nicknamed “Blue Whale,” the field lies about 80 km (50 miles) off the central coast. That’s well within the Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, where the nation has sole rights to extract resources in and below the sea, as per the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Unfortunately, China has other ideas. Blue Whale is in deepwater Block 118. At least part of that block also falls within the dubious “nine-dash line” that China uses to claim nearly the entire sea as its own—a claim that flies in the face of UNCLOS and was shot down by an international tribunal last July. (Beijing vowed to ignore the ruling, despite signing UNCLOS in 1996.)

The geopolitical risk posed by China’s claim—and its aggressive moves to defend it—has discouraged energy firms from embarking on joint projects with nations around the sea, despite the potentially vast hydrocarbon riches and growing energy needs in the region. In 2011, soon after ExxonMobil announced finding gas in Block 118, Beijing warned foreign energy companies against exploring in disputed areas (meaning nearly the whole sea).

But ExxonMobil forged ahead with Vietnam on Blue Whale. In May 2014, Hanoi expressed its appreciation to the company for doing so. The appreciation was merited: That same month China had menacingly moved a mobile deepwater rig nearby, sparking deadly riots in Vietnam and creating the potential for military conflict, with dozens of ships from both nations gathering near the rig.

Enter the US state department. With tensions mounting, secretary of state John Kerry stepped in to soothe both sides. He also called China’s foreign minister to complain that the rig move was “provocative” and “aggressive.” Beijing fired back that Kerry should “speak and act cautiously” and be objective when talking about China.

Such tensions could soon rise again—possibly involving Block 118 itself, or other nearby blocks (paywall) that ExxonMobil also has exploration rights to. (This month the company signed long-expected agreements with Vietnam officially initiating the Blue Whale project.) If so, the US would be likely to again send its secretary of state to calm the situation and sternly warn China about its aggressive moves.

But that could mean sending Tillerson, the very man who led ExxonMobil as it laid the groundwork for its projects off Vietnam in the first place. While his experience might help in some ways, the optics would be bad—much to the delight, no doubt, of China’s propaganda department.

https://qz.com/887819/rex-tiller ... exxonmobil-xom-ceo/

erha

Dracula 发表于 2017-1-23 20:22
关于其它西方石油公司退出南海，我看的报道在这儿，不过就一句，没什么细节。

这篇报道只是讲 A gas exploration project。一个而已。越南大部分的海上石油项目都集中在越南南部，应该跟中国没有什么争议。