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[时事热点] 美国总统候选人简评

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    601#
     楼主| 发表于 2016-10-2 21:15:25 | 只看该作者
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-10-2 21:20 编辑

    贴一篇跑题的文章。棒球季后赛很快就要开打了。Chicago Cubs是美国职业体育里乃至美国文化里futility的象征。上一次赢得世界大赛总冠军是1908年,上一次打进决赛是1945年。但今年常规赛他们却取得了全联盟最好的成绩,按照有些指标甚至可以说是有史以来最好的球队之一。George Will是美国有名的保守派政治评论家,我经常读他在华盛顿邮报的专栏(这次大选他也反Trump)。他还是有名的棒球迷,我还看过他写的一本关于棒球的书。他是Cubs的球迷,在Ken Burns的纪录片Baseball里出场好多次,里面有句quote特别有趣

    I grew up in central Illinois midway between Chicago and St. Louis and I made an historic blunder. All my friends became Cardinals fans and grew up happy and liberal and I became a Cubs fan and grew up embittered and conservative.


    刚才我读到他在华盛顿邮报上的一篇关于Cubs的文章,觉得很有意思,转贴过来

    Why all the love for the Chicago Cubs’ woes?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/o ... _term=.a0bd144dde56



    “Lots o’ folks confuse bad management with destiny.”

    — Kin Hubbard

    The good news, a commodity in short supply, is that Americans are about to get a respite from the inundating Niagara of candidates’ blather. The bad news is that the respite will be a tsunami of Cubs Gush, which will slosh from sea to shining sea. So, brace yourself for a surfeit of dubious sociology and worse metaphysics. There is something about baseball, and especially about the Chicago National League Ball Club, that triggers — consider this column a trigger warning — incontinent rhapsodizing and nonsensical theorizing by otherwise sensible citizens.

    The mesmerizing arithmetic of the moment is that the Cubs last won the World Series in 1908, when Teddy Roosevelt was president. Today, the nation that is selecting its 45th president is as distant from 1908 as that year was from the second presidency, that of John Adams.

    In the sport of the long season, after playing 162 games in 183 days, a team is what its record says it is, and the Cubs have baseball’s best record . This year’s team is vastly more talented than the team that made the Cubs’ last appearance in the World Series, in 1945, when many of the major league’s best players were still wearing military uniforms. (The Tigers had enough of them to defeat the Cubs in seven games.) From 1946 through 2014, just before today’s team materialized, the Cubs were 714 games — almost 4½ 162-game seasons — under .500 (5,095 wins, 5,809 losses).

    Ethicists say losing builds character. Cubs fans, who are mostly scar tissue, say they already have quite enough character, thank you. Dime-store anthropologists brood about how a World Series win might puncture the mystique of the “lovable losers.” But what is lovable about consistent failure? For that, Americans have government.

    Some Cubs fans, luxuriating in losing, have taken a perverse pride in their team’s colorful failures, such as third baseman Don Hoak striking out six times in a 17-inning game. Or second baseman Glenn Beckert stranding 12 runners in a nine-inning game. Or Lou “The Mad Russian” Novikoff trying to steal third base — with the bases loaded. (He explained that he got “a good jump on the pitcher.”) Or shortstop Lennie Merullo making four errors in one inning . (He had a son born that day who was nicknamed Boots.) Or pitcher Dickie Noles being traded for himself. (Sent to the Tigers for a player to be named later, he promptly surrendered a bases-loaded triple, so the Tigers designated him the player named later and shipped him back to Chicago.)

    Some Cubs fans seem to relish theories about how curses or karma have destined the Cubs for failure. Actually, for many years the team’s management, having inherited a dandy ballpark but having no clue how to build a good team, decided to market Wrigley Field’s charms: The grass would be so green, the ivy so lush, the beer so cold and the sunshine (there were no night games until 1988) so warm that no one would care what the scoreboard said. Phil Wrigley, son of William, for whom the ballpark is named, even encouraged calling it Cubs Park rather than Wrigley Field because people like going to a park. This, he said, would appeal to “people not interested in baseball.” Good grief.

    Wrigley’s bleachers became the best singles bar on the North Side, and the ballpark became a health resort for visiting teams. Then, in 2009, the Ricketts family, which did not make enough money to buy the Cubs by being indifferent to excellence, turned the team over to son Tom, who met his wife in Wrigley’s bleachers but who is agreeably unsentimental about the cult of futility.

    So, all you purveyors of Cubs Gush, listen up. Referring to Wrigley Field as a “baseball cathedral” should be a flogging offense. It is just a nice little place on the North Side where men (calling major leaguers “boys of summer” should be punishable by keelhauling) work hard at a demanding and dangerous craft. And Cubs fans, loyal through thin and thin, you must remember this: Your team at least won the Cold War. For years, it held spring training on Catalina Island near Los Angeles. So, when a Des Moines radio sportscaster named “Dutch” Reagan went to report on them, he stopped in Hollywood for a screen test, and the Soviet Union was doomed. So there.

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    [LV.10]大乘

    602#
     楼主| 发表于 2016-10-3 13:34:27 | 只看该作者
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-10-3 13:50 编辑

    昨天美国大选最大的新闻是Trump在1995年损失惨重,赔了接近10亿美元,很可能过去18年里一直用这个deduction,就没交过联邦收入所得税。让觉得很有意思的媒体对这件事的报道,左派媒体像纽约时报把火力集中在Trump没交过税这点。偏右接近于工商界的华尔街时报则认为这个deduction是理所应当,Trump用这点不交税无可非议,但是觉得一下子赔十亿美元的人能自称自己是smart也是件挺搞笑的事。

    这件事本身到未必对Trump有很大的伤害。但是这次大选的规律是媒体的聚焦转向谁,谁的支持率就会下降。现在离大选只有5个星期,Trump形势还落后,他的时间主要花来为自己辩解而不是攻击希拉里,对他来说就是件不利的事。

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    [LV.10]大乘

    603#
     楼主| 发表于 2016-10-4 03:23:49 | 只看该作者
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-10-4 03:25 编辑

    刚看到的,Trump团队的incompetence确实让人惊讶。(文章里提到的这条tweet已经给删了)





    Sean Spicer, the head strategist and communications director for the Republican National Committee, today on Twitter.

    In the language of politics, to call a strategy a “Willie Horton-Style Attack” is to say that it’s race-baiting, vicious, and misleading. The reference is to two notorious ads, “Weekend Pass” and “Revolving Door,” used by George H.W. Bush’s Republicans in 1988 to attack his Democratic rival Michael Dukakis. You can see them and learn more details after the jump. This isn’t something normal people would brag about.

    Yet just this morning, via tweet, the “strategist” and communications director for the Republican National Committee, Sean Spicer, announces that the party is about to kick off just such an attack, on Tim Kaine! Good lord.

    By definition, this kind of attack strategy has been used before, as have smear campaigns through the history of politics. But the perpetrators used to deny them. The whole point of the “dog whistle” metaphor was that only the intended part of your audience would hear the message you were trying to send. Thus the George H.W. Bush campaign could pretend that the Willie Horton ad was strictly about criminal justice; it’s just coincidence that the criminal whose face they used happened to be a rough-looking black man.

    So for Spicer to come right out with a proud-seeming announcement must mean either that he has lost his mind, or that the dynamics of his campaign and party now make this seem a sensible thing to say.

    Here’s a screenshot of the original Willie Horton, as seen on TV—and then, why he’s not really “Willie.”



    This quote from Horton after the ad came out underscores its intention:

    The fact is, my name is not “Willie.” It’s part of the myth of the case. The name irks me. It was created to play on racial stereotypes: big, ugly, dumb, violent, black—“Willie.” I resent that. They created a fictional character—who seemed believable, but who did not exist.


    “Weekend Passes” was produced by a GOP PAC. Here’s the full ad:



    “Revolving Door” was the handiwork of the Bush campaign itself, including advisors Lee Atwater and—wait for it— Roger Ailes. Here it is:



    ***

    Now the point: to run a “Willie Horton-style” campaign is bad enough. It’s meant to inflame racial resentments and fears. But saying you’re going to do it, and hailing that fact as an “exclusive,” travels from the realm of the reprehensible to the idiotic. It’s like an infomercial that begins, “We’re pushing a new scam!” Or like Bill Cosby showing up for a date and saying, “One sip of this drink and you’ll be out cold.”  

    They’re doing something nasty, and they’re doing it in the stupidest possible way.

    Imagine what this team would be like in power.

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    604#
    发表于 2016-10-4 14:51:01 | 只看该作者
    Dracula 发表于 2016-9-29 04:30
    Trump的经济方案是一方面大规模减税,这是共和党的传统政策,一方面增加开支包括基础设施建设,对social  ...

    和和,伯爵还真是建制派啊。

    好,我对建制派的观感一下子就好了不少了。

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    605#
    发表于 2016-10-4 15:09:22 | 只看该作者
    Dracula 发表于 2016-10-3 13:34
    昨天美国大选最大的新闻是Trump在1995年损失惨重,赔了接近10亿美元,很可能过去18年里一直用这个deduction ...

    我觉得川总在整个体系精心设计的这么一整套组合拳下,已经没戏了。

    首先,辩论现在看来是失败了。八千五百万人看,有相当一部分应该是想看他倒底有没有"总统相"。后半段太糟糕了。

    选美小姐是针对他性格弱点,SOMEHOW不能容忍一些女性。(这个相当的奇怪。。。)非常的不"总统相",特别是选民已经进入"大选模式"了。

    税表是传说中的"硬伤",他的主要减税政策,立刻变成一个HARD-SELL。

    最糟的可能是,他居然对税表硬伤没有准备,说什么我不交税因为我聪明。。。虽然法律上讲没问题,观感就有问题了。

    现在538上已经几乎4比1了。

    估计是西太四年,缝缝补补了。。。
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    [LV.10]大乘

    606#
     楼主| 发表于 2016-10-4 20:01:27 | 只看该作者
    cadgn 发表于 2016-10-4 15:09
    我觉得川总在整个体系精心设计的这么一整套组合拳下,已经没戏了。

    首先,辩论现在看来是失败了。八千五 ...

    Miss Universe那件事反映的不仅是他对女性的态度,而且他上个星期五凌晨3点睡不着觉,干点什么不好啊。高尚一点的,思考一下国家大事,庸俗一点的,像Homer Simpson一样到冰箱里找点东西满足一下口福也行。他偏不依不饶非得跟那个选美小姐战到底,连发4条tweet,70岁了以总统候选人的身份号召大家去看sex tape(好像还不是真的),这实在不是一个总统应有的形象。Trump这次要还想赢得话,他的竞选团队得把他Android的手机没收掉。

    我看到的消息说纽约时报还存着关于Trump的重磅炸弹没使,未来几个星期会连续曝光。现在的情况这个星期天的辩论变得极其重要,Trump要是再输了的话,真是会一溃千里,再没有翻身的可能性的了。

    今天凌晨Julian Assange在网上举行发布会,本来说是要揭发关于希拉里的致命丑闻,让Trump的支持者非常兴奋,就是克林顿的支持者也有些担心。结果那个发布会就是他卖书和呼吁大家给他捐款,别的什么也没有。好多Trump的支持者凌晨2、3点钟不睡觉,坚持着看发布会,却什么也没等来,我刚才在网上看到的评论,他们很多气得破口大骂,前几天还觉得Assange揭发希拉里是英雄,现在觉得就应该把他干掉。本来对希拉里不利的可能的突发事件就是Wikileaks有什么致命的东西,现在看来这不过就是Assange成功的一次商业推销活动。Trump的机会实在是不多了。

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    607#
    发表于 2016-10-4 21:31:30 | 只看该作者
    Dracula 发表于 2016-10-4 06:01
    Miss Universe那件事反映的不仅是他对女性的态度,而且他上个星期五凌晨3点睡不着觉,干点什么不好啊。高 ...

    特朗普是一个现象,不是一个人。特朗普这次当选不上,美国政治依然面对grassroot alienation,要是希拉里还是把他们看作deplorables,那四年之后还会有特朗普二世……

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    608#
    发表于 2016-10-4 23:06:19 | 只看该作者
    Dracula 发表于 2016-10-1 01:54
    你举得信口开河的例子是演戏,搞政治都要这样,像Trump的盖一堵美丽的墙,让墨西哥支付,他自己也知道不 ...

    就回这里吧。

    且不论其它,一个铁定的事实是,民主党自己把女克从国务卿的位子拿下去,换上现任的这块料。。这个决定应该不是对女克政绩,决策能力和管理才能或是whatsoever 什么的肯定。如果她连国务卿一职都不胜任,何谈总统啊。。民主党,包括奥八自己,把选民当什么呀。

    川普的税表,只要女克的团队不能证明其有违法行为,那川普就是非常成功的决策和管理者。因为他做到的可以说是所有CEO都想做的事情。谁愿意多交税啊?

    top 1% 的精英们大都有专业人士为他们管理避税。tax planning, 四大会计师事务所都有强大的专业咨询服务,更不用说各个公司内部的自己的团队了。。税法会计比其他会计收入要高不少。

    女克的团队如果无望地在这上纠缠,只能进一步证明她不懂经营,没有经济头脑罢了。她最新的讲演是说, 我们都应该为了国家为了军费开支自愿多交税?她自己和她的亲朋好友是在努力为国多交税吗?口不对心吧。。民主党基本上就是说一套做一套。。
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    [LV.10]大乘

    609#
     楼主| 发表于 2016-10-5 00:24:52 | 只看该作者
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-10-5 01:27 编辑
    如若 发表于 2016-10-4 23:06
    就回这里吧。

    且不论其它,一个铁定的事实是,民主党自己把女克从国务卿的位子拿下去,换上现任的这块料 ...


    Trump如果就是用纽约时报说的那个deduction少交税其实无可厚非。如果上一年赔了很多钱,算税的时候这个损失应该是带到下一年的。比如一个人经商,第一年赔了1000万美元,第二年赚了2000万美元。就是从公平的角度说,他也应该只对净赚的那1000万交税。否则的话,假设他住在税高的州,联邦税加州税的税率超过50%,那么他第二年要交1000多万的税,忙活半天等于白干了,甚至倒赔钱,确实是不应该。因此我提到偏工商界的华尔街时报认为Trump因为这个少交税理所应当。但是大多数选民的经济知识比较缺乏,他们对此会怎么反应我不太清楚。

    Trump可能还用过别的loophole,在他公布他的税表之前我们不知道,只能猜测。现在Trump的团队也默认他确实很可能好多年没有交过收入税,但是还是坚持不公布他的税表。因此有人猜测,他害怕的并不是这一点曝光。比较邪乎的一种说法是,Trump破产4次,银行吃了大亏后,他在华尔街是贷不到钱了。他公司现在的资金是来自俄罗斯甚至是俄罗斯政府。Trump才一改共和党多年的政策,对俄罗斯和普京特别友好,只有赞美之词,从来没有过批评,是因为他的财务命门被普京捏着。这要是真的话,就是好多他的铁杆支持者都会弃他而去。我对这个说法是将信将疑,但是Trump坚持不公布税表的坏处就是没法将这种流言停止。

    希拉里在奥巴马的第二任政府里不担任国务卿,应该不是因为她干的特别不好被拿下。最主要的原因应该是她那时已经开始准备今年竞选总统,从去年到今年的两年里搞竞选是个全职工作,没法同时干着国务卿,早晚都是要辞职。而且她干国务卿的4年成就是不多,但是特别勤奋繁忙,去了98个国家,行程100万英里,可能也是很累想休息休息了。再就是克林顿夫妇尤其是希拉里对赚钱从来都是有特别的兴趣,她下来以后利用这个时间出书,到各处演讲赚了一大笔。她赚钱的欲望是有点过于强烈,在Goldman Sachs赚的那么一大笔钱,她也应该能意识到曝光的话,会很不好看,这次初选也是Bernie Sanders攻击她最有力的一点。但是数钱的时候也顾不了那么多了。

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    [LV.10]大乘

    610#
     楼主| 发表于 2016-10-5 01:05:55 | 只看该作者
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-10-5 01:07 编辑

    刚看到的消息,30年来在科罗拉多选举登记的民主党人数首次超过共和党。2008年和2012年Obama在这一点落后的情况下,都两次赢下了Colorado,现在看来希拉里也已经基本拿下了。Virginia也是希拉里一直保持不小的优势,应该也没有问题。这样希拉里只要能守住宾夕法尼亚,即使Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada都输了,在electoral college也还是会有多数。而且过去一个星期的poll,希拉里在Florida, NC, Nevada都是领先,因此Trump想赢已经很艰难了。这个星期天的辩论必须要有很好的表现。
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    [LV.9]渡劫

    611#
    发表于 2016-10-5 01:23:14 | 只看该作者
    Dracula 发表于 2016-10-5 00:24
    Trump如果就是用纽约时报说的那个deduction少交税其实无可厚非。如果上一年赔了很多钱,算税的时候这个损 ...

    是不是当总统之后,资产情况都要报告给政府?
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    [LV.10]大乘

    612#
     楼主| 发表于 2016-10-5 01:43:25 | 只看该作者
    tanis 发表于 2016-10-5 01:23
    是不是当总统之后,资产情况都要报告给政府?

    好像是的

    Members of Congress, candidates for federal office, senior congressional staff, nominees for executive branch positions, Cabinet members, the president and vice president and Supreme Court justices are required by the Ethics in Government Act of 1978 to file annual reports disclosing their personal finances. Compliance and enforcement of this requirement is overseen by the congressional ethics committees, the ethics offices of government agencies and, in the case of executive branch officials, the U.S. Office of Government Ethics.

    These forms record earned and unearned income, assets and related transactions, liabilities, contributions made in lieu of honoraria, gifts received, non-governmental positions held, travel that was paid for or for which the filer was reimbursed, and various agreements into which the filer has entered. Information relating to the spouse and dependent children of the filer is also reported in many cases.


    https://www.opensecrets.org/pfds/disclosure.php

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    [LV.10]大乘

    613#
     楼主| 发表于 2016-10-5 02:51:41 | 只看该作者
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-10-5 04:49 编辑

    今天晚上是副总统候选人辩论。刚看到点八卦,美国历史上的所有副总统按帅的程度排名。

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahj ... .kyJyAK2Y#.lhxZv7yg

    排第一的是戈尔



    第二是格兰特的副总统Schuyler Colfax



    老布什的副总统Dan Quayle排第四



    Joe Biden 排第五





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    参与人数 1爱元 +2 收起 理由
    如若 + 2 要说川普一家养眼啊。。

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    [LV.Master]无

    614#
    发表于 2016-10-5 04:37:21 | 只看该作者
    Dracula 发表于 2016-10-5 02:51
    今天晚上是副总统候选人排名。刚看到点八卦,美国历史上的所有副总统按帅的程度排名。

    https://www.buzzfe ...

    戈尔童鞋现在很猪头的样子
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    [LV.9]渡劫

    615#
    发表于 2016-10-5 04:54:04 | 只看该作者
    晨枫 发表于 2016-10-1 10:26
    东亚的朝鲜已经有核武了,中国早就有核武了。

    朝鲜没有核武,只有脏弹。

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    616#
    发表于 2016-10-5 05:21:35 | 只看该作者
    如若 发表于 2016-10-4 09:06
    就回这里吧。

    且不论其它,一个铁定的事实是,民主党自己把女克从国务卿的位子拿下去,换上现任的这块料 ...

    这个问题是这样的:总统有连任的,但国务卿很少跨届。原因不清楚,但基本就是这样。

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    [LV.9]渡劫

    617#
    发表于 2016-10-5 05:40:45 | 只看该作者

    那如果真是普金借的钱,会不会出现,即使选上,然后又因为受外国资本控制而被弹劾的情况。。。

    点评

    想起来了,这两个人不都是和普金关系不一般么。。。  发表于 2016-10-5 05:41
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    [LV.10]大乘

    618#
     楼主| 发表于 2016-10-5 06:18:38 | 只看该作者
    tanis 发表于 2016-10-5 05:40
    那如果真是普金借的钱,会不会出现,即使选上,然后又因为受外国资本控制而被弹劾的情况。。。 ...

    这个纯粹是猜测,我没看到过什么确实的证据。就是Trump一反几十年的传统,坚持不公布自己的税表,肯定里面有些见不得人的东西。而比较合理的猜测中,最见不得人的就是这个了。而且Trump对普京那么的赞美确实让人有些怀疑。

    总统从俄罗斯政府那儿巨额贷款是丑闻,但是并不违法。不能成为弹劾的理由。如果贷款条件过分优惠的话,才可能算是受贿,国会才能启动弹劾。

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    涨姿势: 5.0
    涨姿势: 5
    神发散  发表于 2016-10-5 06:55
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    [LV.10]大乘

    619#
    发表于 2016-10-5 07:22:24 | 只看该作者
    Dracula 发表于 2016-9-30 11:57
    所谓的克林顿夫妇身有血债,那是地道的阴谋理论,一点根据都没有。是90年代初Vince Foster死后,Arkansas ...

    美帝这类全民公投的制度对付川普这类作秀拉票厉害,但执政能力差的候选人貌似没啥好招。广大民众还是很好煽动的。

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    620#
    发表于 2016-10-5 08:04:08 | 只看该作者
    晨枫 发表于 2016-10-5 05:21
    这个问题是这样的:总统有连任的,但国务卿很少跨届。原因不清楚,但基本就是这样。 ...

    我记得她任期未满吗。也许我记错了。

    我还真没注意国务卿都是一届。当是小布时的Rice感觉做了很久似的。这个偶没研究。你们应该知道得更多。。

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