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1201#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-1 19:18:58 | 只看该作者
年節期間最後一次分享deepseek相關資訊^_^

畢竟我離開軟體研發後,非軟體研發的臉友數大量增加,加上這又扯到政治立場問題,所以誤導的訊息很多,過年期間我其實一直很掙扎要不要雞婆的寫一下,後來有位臉友分享了這幾日的事件脈絡,雖然並非我的結論,但過程跟我的訊息獲取分析後的結果是吻合的,所以我就借花獻佛了。

個人觀點:
全球推動軟體研發領域研發進展的,開源這件事功不可沒,獨立研發團隊為何能屢屢製作出可與大公司抗衡產品(雖然之後可能就被大公司的資本併了),就是因為全球的軟體研發領域有開源的習性,不同國家不同人種的研究領域才能直接堆疊起來,軟體研發有非常多的研究控,因為他們的無私讓全球的軟體技術不斷往前翻篇,這跟大公司老是要用專利與智慧財產把自己的成果包裹起來恰恰相反(畢竟公司是為了賺錢),所以對於願意將成果開源的研發前輩,他們的大愛我都是無比尊敬,在全球全人類的發展面前,其他事情顯得相當渺小。

至於我跟引用文章不同的結論的部分在於美國的勢,這讓我想到我年輕時,window與apple之爭,在大家還在藍海衝刺的時候,window這種兼容性較高的平台設計(既然是平台,當然已經有框架了)如同研發人員的主題遊樂場,參與的人多,研發的人多大家又開源,進展就會快,這就是為什麼Deepseek一開,就檔不住的原因。所有的軟體硬體研究者、科學家幾乎都有這樣的特質,用研發成果證明真理也證明自己。

但是一個領域的發展到一個階段的時候,賈伯斯的年代,apple的存在感就顯得特別有份量,因為用戶不是研發人員,他們是使用者,想要更完整充滿防呆的機制下操作,"買蘋果手機,不是買的硬件,而是IOS整個生態,這個生態也是用戶黏性的核心"。

我評估,美國不會因此斜坡,他們只要固守並繼續兼容全球研發者的成果,損失的只是AI的估值就能止血,這也是很多公司已經選擇兼容的原因。

Q:網路上提到deep seek利用ChatGPT訓練他們的東西,又是怎麼回事?
A:就是AI業界大家都在用的從大模型的輸出結果來訓練出效率更高的小模型的蒸餾技術,沒什麼大驚小怪

Q:那跟這篇從底層打造避開輝達的生態系統,有啥關係?
A:蒸餾是抽象算法模型,PTX編程則是具體算法在硬體上的高效率實現,不屬於一個層面。

**以研發人員心思來說,DS 繞過 CUDA 我認為也不是要弄死英偉達,很可能是為了支持 AMD、華為、寒武紀等其他公司的算力卡。

--------------以下為引用文章-----------------

臉友 劉禎澤

網路上傳deepseek繞過了英偉達cuda,我跟大家講一下deepseek到底做了什麼。

英偉達嚴格來說是一個平台性公司,並不止是硬件,硬件只不過是一個載體,它的護城河是cuda計算平台,所有高性能並行計算的祖師爺,只要你用英偉達的顯卡做高性能計算,就要透過cuda計算平台。

你說用AMD的顯示卡,嗨,它沒有生態呀,就像android和windowsphone那麼大的差別。 你買蘋果手機,不是買的硬件,而是IOS整個生態,這個生態也是用戶黏性的核心,cuda也是如此,你搞高效能運算,週邊的配套生態工具都是cuda的,你總也不能自己 再開發一套出來,就像你一個開發電商的會去再造個JAVA的輪子嗎? 英偉達打來十年的領先時間。 所以各大公司都被英偉達狂宰,有苦難言。

總之一句話,英偉達創造了當代高效能運算的所有標準軟體、硬體以及工俱生態,你想寫個demo用啥都行,你想上生產除了英偉達別無選擇,這就是過去十年AI圈的現實 。 天下苦達子久矣。

deepseek開源以後利用Meta二十分之一的成本,完成了比Meta性能好十倍的大模型,達到了與全球領先chatgpt最新版本相當的實力。

deepseek不僅公佈了開源了程式碼,公開了測試方式與數據,還發表了全新架構的論文,這相當於一把梭了。

各路人馬一開始不相信,然後開始扒deepseek,用deepseek的源代碼,測試數據,樣本等可以完全復現一次deepseekR1的訓練過程,成本就是那麼低,這讓所有人都閉嘴了。

就有點從不服的心態變成你是挺牛逼的意思了,接著研究細節,然後從論文中發現了deepseek改造了英偉達底層的cuda生態,用比cuda更底層的ptx語言重寫了cuda的硬件 邏輯,讓其中有20個流處理器硬體做了CUDA規定的以外的事,彌補了閹割版顯示卡在網路通訊上的不足,相當於繞過英偉達的管理平台與運算生態,直接給英偉達的硬體發號施令 。

這是英偉達股價崩盤的核心邏輯,英偉達的最大護城河讓人挖開了一個洞。 英偉達是個霸氣十足的太歲,deepseek在他的頭上動土了。

deepseek可以這麼做,就代表別人也可以這麼做。 有人問了那之前沒人能想到嗎?

這個問題很好,之前一定有大神想過,但是有很多問題導致無法實現。 一是在大模型剛出現的時候,一片藍海,大家空間無限大,大家都在攻城略地,速度和效率是最大優先級,沒人給你時間去搞底層語言編程這玩意,特別是美國人,花錢能解決的事不叫個問題,不就是美元嘛,印就完了,錢有得是,英偉達的顯卡隨便買,誰腦子有包給自己找這麻煩?

中國不一樣,被美國制裁的只能用閹割卡,還不能隨便買,資源極度匱乏,必須用最小的硬體壓榨出最大的性能出來,只能劍走偏鋒。 所以用ptx繞過cuda這件事只會發生在中國,不可能發生在美國,邏輯不允許!

第二點是大語言模型的發展進入了一個全新的時期,工作效率理解力推理能力精度都有了質的飛躍,deepseek是用deepseek推理模型本身完成了海量的ptx代碼優化工作,這才使deepseek 的新版本有可能繞過CUDA完成程式指令集的巨量任務。  ptx是變種的組合語言,如果用真人寫以現在的資料量累死也寫不完,但是AI它效率高呀,怎麼寫也不累…

英偉達現在的危機是怎麼給投資人說cuda依然在未來的幾十年的地位無法被撼動,但顯然他們還沒找到答案。 誰能想到AI的教宗竟然被AI給革了命,這找誰說理去。

我再強調一遍,國運,不在於人,而在於勢,美國的勢沒了,這才是最恐怖的。

---------以上---------
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1202#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-2 15:50:40 | 只看该作者
我看到許多台灣人包括我的同行,用一種奇異的口吻與筆法去抨擊或貶抑DeepSeek,然後為Open AI、Meta等美大廠去辯護。儼然這些美國的語言模型就是他們自身的榮耀。恍似他們藉著這樣一種攻訐,就可以蛻變為一個貨真價實的美國人了!

他們似乎從來不曾覺察:當他如此為美國去貶損中國時,美國人其實從不因此而感激他們,或因此而將他們當成自己的一員。

這種藉著苛責、嘲弄以及踐踏自己所屬的族裔,妄圖博取異族帝國的歡心並獲得認同的心態,其實是最為可悲的奴性。這種行徑的背後就是一種經典的種姓邏輯,他們等於徹底否定了自己的這一支民族,將它歸之於最應被否棄、蹂躪與踩踏的賤民階級。

他們形同認定,這一個賤民階層是做不出任何輝煌的東西的。如果有一點可以被稱頌的東西,那一定是抄襲的、假冒的、欺詐的。

於是當他們看到中國六代機、無人機航母、以及如今的DeepSeek,他們的腦子裡立即會生出那是塑料的、冒充的、空殼的等這一類的詞彙,去否定這些成果的價值,並相信他們所企盼、膜拜的帝國主人對此根本不屑一顧,而他們只要一直跟隨著其實根本就不曾將他們當一回事兒的統治者,他們就會擁有美好的人生。

我無法鑽入他們的內心去一探這樣的思維已扭曲到了什麼程度,但我毫無懸念地相信,終有一個顛覆性的事件發生,當他們終於看清他們一輩子建構出來的虛妄已然碎了一地,他們將墜入無盡的痛苦的深淵。

那個時候,他們既不能歸附到他們所一貫以為的賤民國度,又看到了所屬的帝國已經崩塌,他們將會真正體認到,原來自己早就是也一直是世界的棄民。
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1203#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-3 02:00:44 | 只看该作者
***As Forwarded***

This is a long but factual write-up by a researcher!
*China is the world's last hope*, said the recently deceased Russian born American journalist, Andre Vltchek. This writer below, seems to echo the same belief. Long, but worth time spent reading!
Subject: CHINA by Ismail Bashmori, an Egyptian Canadian, and a China watcher
China’s space station: From no flush toilets to building its own space station within 40 years. AS an Egyptian, I have been studying China intensely for the past year — its government, society, history, and transformation. I’ve spoken to hundreds of Chinese and China-haters and heard everything they had to say.  By now I’ve learned roughly as much about China as anyone can learn without knowing the language or living in the country, and I’ve reached my conclusion.  China attracts a lot of haters, know-nothings and armchair experts. The truth is that China is the greatest country on the face of the earth.  It makes all other countries look insignificant and contemptible.  It is the most brilliant, most industrious, most ambitious, most educated, meritocratic and technocratic, most modern, sophisticated, and civilised, and best-governed by far. It is the first nonwhite, non-Western country to reach this status since the 1600s.  The determination of this country is indescribable.  Supernatural.  There is no force that can stop it from accomplishing anything it wants to do. Forty years ago a flush toilet in China was a luxury.  Today it has its own Space Station.  This is a tiny example of China’s capabilities. It doesn’t matter who we are.  Egyptians, Syrians, Pakistanis, Indians, Africans, even Americans.  Next to the Chinese, we are pathetic.  We can’t do what they do.  We would have a mountain, an Everest of changes to make, and we would whine and bicker and fail at every one of them.  China’s story since the 1980s has been one of an almost divine metamorphosis. Next to China the entire Western world from Alaska to New Zealand has stagnated.  Next to China the entire developing world from Brazil to Madagascar has progressed only at a crawl. China is the mother of all gargantuan bullet trains.  Every day it manages to create something new and astonishing.  And unlike the United States, unlike the British Empire, unlike the French, Dutch, Germans, Spanish, Portuguese or any other Western nation that had its turn at being a superpower in the past four centuries, China doesn’t need to run anybody over or take something from somebody else, to rise majestically. China is also standing up to the West all by herself.  The West can’t believe their four-hundred-year-old global supremacy is being challenged.  They hoped that the more China developed, the more it would submit to their influence, interests, and leadership.  That didn’t happen.  So now they will do anything possible, short of a nuclear war, to make China end.  Their goal is to destroy this country.  That’s why, although the United States has killed several million people and turned several regions of the earth into hellscapes. China is the worst fear of our planet’s Western masters.  They want you to despise and dread a country that’s done nothing to you, that hasn’t invaded anyone, bombed or sanctioned anyone, that hasn’t overthrown any foreign government, or used its military on anything since 1979. China is the only major country in the nonwhite developing world, to stand up to the West.  To look it in the eye when challenged or threatened. The Global South are simply Western puppets who submitted long ago.  Even the most powerful ones.  Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India. The 1500s—1000s BC were Egypt’s time.  Antiquity belonged to the Greeks and Romans.  The 1700s belonged to France, and the 1800s to Britain.  From 1945 to the present, the world has been under American overlordship.  And they call it the Pax Americana but there isn’t much Pax in it. There’s plenty of Pax if you’re in Europe or Australia.  But the Middle East? Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran and Yemen in the past 20 years.  Latin America? They’ve destroyed that part of the world beyond any hope of recovery.  Africa? It’s only been spared because of disinterest.  The US sees Africa as nothing.  The whole West does. But in the twenty-first century, we are witnessing the rise of China.  We are decades away from China becoming the greatest power on earth.  This will be China’s time, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.  Attack China all you want, curse her and monger rumours and hysteria — but the truth is that none of your accusations are backed up by evidence.  The Western press is under the thumb of Western governments that want to stay on top of the world for eternity.  And the truth is that China is not affected by the noise and maneuvers of her enemies. For her first thirty years, from 1949 to 1979, China was basically blockaded and isolated economically and politically by the West.  It didn’t even have a seat in the UN General Assembly.  And it was dirt-poor in those days, barely a speck of the global economy, a tiny fraction of Japan’s or Germany’s GDP — not even able to prevent famine.  And it still didn’t submit to pressure or take any orders.  Why on earth would it do that now?
China will be the next global power.  There’s nothing that can be done about that.  The first stage is that its economy only needs to grow at 4. 7 percent per year to become the world’s largest by 2035.  That means the usual, historical bare-minimum of 6 percent is already overkill.  The US can build as many bases as it wants, slap as many sanctions as it wants, recognise whatever bogus genocides it wants.  That’s what it’s been doing all along.  Has any of it made a difference? China can adapt to any situation.  It took China a mere ten years to go from being barred by the US Congress from participating in the “International” Space Station, to building its own Space Station from zero. See, the US has an $800-billion war budget, 800 military bases, 13,000 aircraft, 500 warships, 6,000 nukes — but it doesn’t have what China has: invincible national resolve.  It takes the US about 5 years to renovate a bridge, and it takes China 43 hours.  There’s simply no competing with that. China doesn’t need to be a military superpower or empire.  That was never part of the plan.  US troops, God bless their souls, will continue sitting in their bases, scratching their balls, costing their government $800 billion a year to do nothing.  Meanwhile, China will continue to actually develop. That’s the part of the equation that America totally missed, because it has barely developed since Reagan’s day.  China is a better place to live today than at any time in its previous 5,000 years; Americans saw their highest standard of living in the 1960s and those days will never come back. So yes, China will be the next global power, and the Chinese are vastly superior to us in every way.  This is a fact that everyone can attack but that nobody can change, like the theory of evolution. Look at you silly buggers, talking about China like it’s going to be the next Nazi Germany.  Even many Middle Easterners I know fit in this foolish category.  Did you notice when the US invaded or overthrew the governments of 20 countries in the past 32 years (my lifetime)? Did you even know? You think just because you’re ready to forget all that because of Beyoncé and Game of Thrones and Snapchat and other US cultural exports, it didn’t happen. The US is feeding me terror-bytes about Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, Tiananmen Square, Great Leap Forward! I don’t see any dead bodies, I can’t show you one invasion or one example of Chinese regime change, I can’t even find Hong Kong on a map or tell you one factual detail about Tiananmen Square, but the US State Department and all its media are telling me CHINA BAD!
Aren’t you at least curious to see what a world with a nonwhite, non-Western leader might look like, after 400 years? Because God knows that leader won’t be us.  It won’t be Brazil or Africa, or the Middle East or India or Indonesia or Nigeria or Pakistan.  We’re a mess. China was a mess too.  But we remain a mess many decades after we achieved independence, and the Chinese went their own way, disentangled their mess and created their destiny.  We’re not made of what the Chinese are made of. I see China as hope.  Hope that a colonised, brutalised, primitive and humiliated country, can rise above its past — refuse to be weak any longer — rebuild itself from nothing, with iron resolve, and become too strong to be overrun by the West again!
Hope that a nonwhite, non-Western country can look deep within itself and find its own solutions to its problems — proving that (foolishly) trusting the West to guide us isn’t necessary! Proof that if we can do what the Chinese did, there will be no limits for us. Imagine a world where the US, France, Britain, Australia, are no more important than Uzbekistan or Paraguay. A world where the World Court might be headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, the World Bank in New Delhi, the United Nations in Jakarta, the IMF in Cairo. A world liberated from the US banking system and the dollar as its reserve currency, so that Washington can no longer tell 200 other countries who they can and can’t trade with. A world where an American can be tried for war crimes at the Hague, not just an Iraqi or Liberian or Serb. A world where we don’t hear about a non-Western-made vaccine and grunt to ourselves, Oh, it must be poison.  A world where we don’t have to immigrate to the same countries that turned ours into hellholes, to work as sales clerks or taxi drivers, or even if we’re brilliantly employed — to drain our brains from our homelands in the best of cases, and use them to reinforce Western riches and supremacy in exchange for a fat paycheck, instead of using them to make our own countries semi-habitable. When I hear that China has built its own Space Station, landed a rover on Mars, ended extreme poverty, built the Earth’s biggest city, dam, telescope, 5G network, highway, air purifier, or whatever the heck it is that will come tomorrow — I feel the same pride as if I were Chinese. It’s not happening for all of us, but it’s happening for one of us and that’s a start.  There’s got to be such a thing as developing-country nationalism — a common nationalism for all the countries that were colonised and plundered, and remain economically and politically captured by their ex-rulers. A nationalism for the Global South.  We are too divided, too brainwashed, too fooled and weak — most of us still worship the countries that destroyed us, are non-Western on the outside and Western on the inside, are hating and fearing and buying all the lies about the only one of us that’s made it, and are leaving our countries in droves to let them burn while we “make a better life for ourselves” in the West. Do you want to live on a Western-dominated Earth for another 400 years? If you do, keep doing what you’re doing.  But I don’t!
You know what’ll happen for all of us if America’s sick wishes come true and its global thuggery does make China collapse? Nothing.  Eternal repetition of the status quo.  More enslavement, hijacking of our resources and weak corrupt governments, neo-colonialism, invasion, regime change, sanctions, MISERY. Haven’t we already seen this? Libya, Cuba, Venezuela, Yugoslavia, Belarus, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, the Soviet Union.  Rest in peace.  Even FRANCE and JAPAN for God’s sake.  What does the United States do when any other country says NO, or simply becomes too powerful, too good at honest competition?
Japan was a Western-style democracy crawling with US troops, with a US-authored pacifist constitution and almost no military and an extremely pro-US government and populace, and it STILL got crushed when it looked like it would become the #1 economy in the 80s. I remember 10–15 years ago when China was still relatively poor and impotent, and Bush and Obama would talk about China as sweetly as swans.  Obama happily had dinner with Xi Jinping in late 2015, called China a crucial partner of the United States, and said the US welcomed China’s rise; it was all horseshit.  Today Biden, who was there with Obama in late 2015 as Vice-President, angrily rebukes a reporter who merely said that Biden and Xi were old friends. America has taken off its mask. China made it, it wasn’t supposed to make it, so now it must die.  What a difference 5 years can make.  China went from “crucial partner” to “number one threat. ”
We should be helping and supporting China to keep climbing to the top, and giving her some serious solidarity as she withstands the new Cold War of Western imperialism.  It’s been a long 400 years.  China is the first non-Western country to even come close to reaching a status of ultimate global importance.  She is akin to the the first member of an impoverished family to go to university.  That is our family of nations. And when China gets to the top, believe me, it won’t be a repeat of the French, British, or American Empire.  Not a single developing country on earth will be worse-off because of China becoming #1.  There will be something good in this for all of us, so let’s wake up.
- Ismail Bashmori is an Egyptian China watcher
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1204#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-3 05:46:09 | 只看该作者
本帖最后由 indy 于 2025-2-2 16:47 编辑

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1205#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-3 05:50:34 | 只看该作者
#美媒批特朗普開啓史上最愚蠢貿易戰#【《華爾街日報》社論炮轟特朗普:開啓了史上最愚蠢的貿易戰】美國總統特朗普2月1日將“關稅大棒”砸向了中國、加拿大和墨西哥,發起了就任後首輪關稅攻勢。

美國《華爾街日報》當天發表社論“火力全開”,以“歷史上最愚蠢的貿易戰”爲題猛批特朗普,尤其是他對“真正的對手”中國僅加徵10%的關稅,卻對鄰國加拿大和墨西哥加徵了25%的關稅,讓人們想起了那個老笑話——做美國的敵人是危險的,但做美國的朋友可能是致命的。文章分析稱,特朗普加徵關稅不僅有損自身汽車和農產品等行業,還會招致對方報復,更有損美國的信譽,使其很難再與其他國家簽訂新的協議。

《華爾街日報》編委會在這篇“檄文”中稱,撇開中國不談,特朗普對鄰國發動這場經濟攻勢的理由根本站不住腳。白宮新聞祕書卡羅琳・萊維特(Karoline Leavitt)聲稱,加拿大和墨西哥“讓非法毒品涌入美國”。但其實毒品流入美國已經有數十年之久,而且只要美國人還在使用毒品,這種情況就不會改變,這是加拿大和墨西哥無法阻止的。

“毒品問題或許只是一種接口。”文章寫道,特朗普早已明確表示,他本身就喜歡關稅。特朗普1月30日曾表示,“我們不需要他們的產品。我們有你需要的所有石油,我們有你需要的所有樹木,也就是木材。”  特朗普有時的言論聽起來似乎美國根本不應該進口任何東西,彷彿美國可以完全封閉,自給自足,也就是所謂的“經濟封閉”(autarky),但這既不是現實世界的情況,也不是我們應該追求的目標,而特朗普可能很快就會發現這一點。

以美國汽車行業爲例,它實際上是一個北美產業,因爲美國,加拿大和墨西哥的供應鏈高度整合。2024年,加拿大供應了美國進口汽車零部件的近13%,而墨西哥的份額更是高達42%。行業專家指出,在北美生產的一輛汽車,爲了讓企業以最具成本效益的方式採購零部件並增值,往往會在邊境來回運輸六七次甚至更多。而且各方都從這種貿易中受益。

根據美國貿易代表辦公室的數據,2023年,美國汽車行業爲美國經濟貢獻了超過8090億美元,相當於美國製造業總產出的11.2%,並提供了“970萬個直接和間接的美國就業機會”。2022年,美國向加拿大和墨西哥出口了價值754億美元的汽車及零部件,這一數字在2023年躍升了14%,達到了862億美元。  

如果沒有這種貿易,美國汽車製造商的競爭力將大幅下降。

區域整合已成爲全球汽車行業的製造戰略,不僅北美採用,日本,韓國和歐洲的車企也在利用高技能與低成本勞動力市場,來採購零部件、開發軟件並進行組裝。

結果就是,美國汽車工業產能在進口汽車,發動機和零部件增長的同時也在不斷擴張。從1995年至2019年,美國汽車,發動機和零部件的進口量增長了169%,而美國國內的汽車工業能力也增長了71%。  

正如美國智庫卡託研究所(Cato Institute)的斯科特·林西科姆(Scott Lincicome)所言:數據表明,進口增加的同時,美國國內生產也在增長。得益於這一供應鏈生態系統,美國得克薩斯州,俄亥俄州,伊利諾伊州和密歇根州等地的數千個高薪汽車製造業崗位才能保持競爭力,而這些崗位嚴重依賴來自墨西哥和加拿大的供應商。

汽車工業之外,關稅還將嚴重打擊美國與鄰國的農產品貿易。在2024財年,墨西哥的食品出口佔美國農產品進口總量的約23%,加拿大則佔約20%。由於美國法律限制了合法移民,導致勞動力短缺,許多美國頂級農場主已將業務轉移到墨西哥。如今美國市場上銷售的牛油果有90%來自墨西哥,難道特朗普現在要做一個“牛油果民族主義者”嗎?  

此外,美國還將遭到對方的報復。《華爾街日報》注意到,加拿大和墨西哥早已證明,它們完全有能力以最具政治影響力的方式進行報復。

就墨西哥而言,在2009年,奧巴馬政府和國會民主黨人終止了一項試點計劃,該計劃允許墨西哥長途卡車進入美國,符合《北美自由貿易協定》的規定。作爲迴應,墨西哥對90種美國商品實施了針對性關稅,以向關鍵的國會議員選區施加壓力。  

這些商品包括加州的葡萄和葡萄酒、俄勒岡州的聖誕樹和櫻桃、俄亥俄州和北達科他州的果醬和果凍,以及大豆產品。

當特朗普在2018年的第一任期內對鋼鐵和鋁徵收關稅時,墨西哥同樣的策略取得了成效,對美國的鋼鐵,豬肉產品、新鮮奶酪和波本威士忌徵收關稅。  

至於另一邊的加拿大,總理特魯多已承諾,將對美國的關稅政策採取“對等回擊”。 即便加拿大經濟規模較小,其GDP可能受到的衝擊會更大,但美國消費者也會感受到某些商品成本上升的壓力。  

文章認爲,這場關稅還會打擊美國簽署協定的信譽度。因爲在特朗普第一個任期內談判並簽署的《美墨加貿易協定》框架下,這一切本不應發生。如果美國連與盟友簽訂的貿易協議都可以隨意無視,那美國很難再讓其他國家願意與之簽訂新協議。

對於這場關稅衝突的前景,《華爾街日報》認爲,如果特朗普能獲得一些象徵性的讓步,他也許會宣稱勝利並撤回關稅。

但如果北美貿易戰持續下去,這無疑將成爲史上最愚蠢的一場貿易戰。

特朗普的“關稅大棒”已然引發國際社會多方擔憂。中國外交部對此表示,中方的立場是一貫的、堅定的。貿易戰、關稅戰沒有贏家。美方單邊加徵關稅的做法嚴重違反世貿組織規則,不僅解決不了自身問題,更不利於雙方,無益於世界。

不少外媒擔心,特朗普此舉或爲“大規模貿易戰”拉開序幕。英國《金融時報》指出,就在幾個小時前,特朗普還威脅要對另一個主要貿易伙伴——歐盟徵收關稅。

英國《衛報》1日指出,中國、加拿大、墨西哥是美國最大的三個進口來源國,去年美國從這三國的進口總額高達1.2萬億美元,佔美國進口總額43%和美國GDP約5%。其中,加拿大是美國原油的主要供應國,墨西哥向美國出口大量新鮮水果和蔬菜,也是美國最大的汽車零部件供應國。中國則是電子芯片的重要出口國。

以對加拿大和墨西哥徵收25%關稅、對中國加徵10%關稅爲基礎,日本貿易振興機構(JETRO)亞洲經濟研究所去年12月發佈的推算髮現,這一擬定的關稅稅率將導致美國物價上漲、工作崗位減少,到2027年,美國GDP將被拉低1.1%。其中,礦業和農業的GDP將各自被拖累1.5%,影響巨大。

安永首席經濟學家格雷格·達科(Greg Daco)建立的衡量特朗普關稅計劃經濟影響的模型則顯示,其最新關稅政策將導致美國今年的經濟增長率下降1.5個百分點,使加拿大和墨西哥陷入衰退,並導致美國國內出現“滯漲”。
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1206#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-3 09:24:42 | 只看该作者
Panama is dropping out of the Belt and Road Initiative, the country's leader announced after meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
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The small country will no longer take part in the biggest global trade project in world history.
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In closed-door talks, Rubio reportedly backed off from the threats of invasion made by President Donald Trump—and was rewarded with a small prize.
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The BRI deal, signed in 2017, will not be renewed, Panama leader Jose Raul Mulino said, and they may try to withdraw from it sooner.
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FAILURE ON MULTIPLE LEVELS
While the State Department is presenting this as a win, it is clearly a failure on multiple levels.
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Rubio was tasked with taking over the Panama canal for the US. He failed.
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He was tasked with removing the "Chinese" companies which run two of the ports. He failed.
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He thinks that forcing Panama to withdraw from the BRI is a success – but in reality, it confirms the worst of what the world already thinks about the US, which is that it is a dangerous foreign policy bully, willing to actively harm other nations, including friends and neighbors.
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BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR
The belt and road initiative, launched by China in 2013, has been the biggest contributor in helping to lift poorer countries towards the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development goals, UN officials said last year.
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Allegations by US hawks that it is a "debt-trap" system have been repeatedly debunked by economists around the world, but continue to be printed by the mainstream media, including America's PBS in a report today.
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The irony is that the company behind the ports in Panama is not from mainland China at all.
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The Hutchison group, parent of Hong Kong International Terminals, was founded in British Hong Kong. The global port operator's holding company is part-listed on the Singapore stock market, with shares held by investors from around the world, including the US.
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But these are simple, incontrovertible facts. They are of no interest to the US government and media, far adrift, lost in their own post-truth world.
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1207#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-3 13:34:24 | 只看该作者
誰能提出比治理大陸近14億人更好的制度?

最近歐美一些著名大學專家學者在荷蘭阿姆斯特丹討論中國「威脅」問題得的結論如下

1. 堅持社會主義,但是不排斥資本主義。堅持黨領導,但是不排斥黨監督。

2. 用世界罕見的經濟模式: 非公有經濟,亦非市場經濟。此混搭模式十分有效。

3. 全民愛國十分罕見。他們內部爭吵。若遇外敵,無須號召,14億人一致對外。薩德事件令韓國失去2/5的市場。

4. 高層一心爲民,世界罕見。去農稅,扶貧,抗災⋯古今中外絕無僅有。他們盡心盡力。

5. 中國領導選拔機制世界罕見。中國候選高階領導人被考察10餘年。無利益集團左右其選拔。

6. 舉國機制世界罕見。中國欲做的任何事沒有做不成,因爲他們舉全國的財力,人力和物力去達成。

7. 新一代年青人成爲棟樑。中國航天航空,核能,電子,芯片和高鐵等領域之擔綱者平均年齡39.4歲。其中40%是歸國留學生。

8. 中國有世界最完整工業體系。從製一根針至航空母艦,從設計到成品不需要任何外援。

9. 龐大金融儲備。中國有近4兆美元儲備,購美債2.1兆,銀行存款和其它儲備共約8兆人民幣。其金融能力是歐美日俄的總和。

10. 中國品牌創新世界罕見。世界把個體優秀產品稱品牌。中國把嶄新經營模式作品牌: 電商,支付寶,共享單車,美團⋯他們在很短時間創新經營模式和創造罕見價值。

11. 中國有罕見宏觀調控能力。亞洲金融風暴和美國次貸危機無法衝擊中國的經濟。

12. 中國有龐大市場法。完全靠自我消費推動市場,同時能迅速處理有害因素。

13. 中國思考事長達幾十年後。此是世界獨一無二。中國有5年和10十年規畫。一帶一路是50年規畫。這種預想,預判和預設能力是應對任何危機的基礎。

14. 好的決策代代相傳世界罕見。許多國家每位總統有其想法。中國標榜之爲人民服務改革開放用幾十年且代代用 代代靈。周恩來在萬隆會的和平共處5項外交政策至今依然是中國外交原則。這是守信,負責大國的體現。

15. 任何國無法撼動中國龐大基礎設施發展的實力。中國近40年發展非單方面發展,是綜合發展。即使非世界最好,決定是最具潛力。

中國可怕是這些,威脅也是這些。如果中國自身不出問題,試問誰能擊垮中國?
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1208#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-4 15:54:03 | 只看该作者
自殺方式的選擇

美帝必亡,無論從邏輯、學理還是實證方面來看,這個命題已經無需辯解,因為那是自殺。

但是從美帝自戕而還原為美國的過程中,還有不同的方式可以選擇,川普自以為選擇的是美國的最大化罷了。

即使用拜登模式,讓俄烏戰爭們打下去,美帝還是解救不了債務破表、中國科技反超、美元美股泡沫化的嚴酷事實。

橫豎都是讓美帝自殺,川普瘋狂式的大美國計劃一旦成功,包括加拿大與格陵蘭,卻可能立馬讓美股回升。而通過喊價恫嚇、再降價交易的方式,還可能讓中國領銜幫忙緩解美債危機。

否則,美國信用若在全球範圍內破產,美元就變成廢紙。所謂霸權一旦如此,別說美帝了,美國也將土崩瓦解。

「美國優先」的確可提高工資來抵銷通貨膨脹,然而製造業回流談何容易?且不說川普高齡的四年內有限,光是發行美元的聯準會不肯再降息,就整得美國政府夠嗆,誰還願意去借貸高利美元蓋廠房?買美債賺息不更好?

可是降息一旦再降息,美元就無法吸引全球資金,反而讓全球資金湧向中國,從而失去天量的全球收益,控制聯準會的猶太勢力能同意?

但你聯準會不降息,房價與股市下跌不說,所謂「再工業化」的的產品如何出口競爭?如何止損貿易逆差與失業?

更令美帝哭逼的是36兆美元債務,其利息支出已佔美國政府收入的18%,高達8820億美元。債務利息比國防支出的8740億美元還多!

可見,美元升息與降息都是自殺。瘋狂川普的背後,其實是一個爛命而恐慌的美國。川普恐怕明白:作為美國霸權最強武器的美元,強勢無以為繼。

眼下美元潮汐收割不成,反而讓人民幣在諸多國際貿易取代美元。金磚國家去美元化作業已然開啟,其他國家去美元化還遠嗎?

「懦夫博弈」這個詞用得好,但中國已並非那種層次的國家,而美國對「衝擊全球經濟成長」的影響,恐怕也沒刊文作者想像中那麼巨大。畢竟還有中國兜著,以及那些不願陪葬美帝的小弟們隨著。

川普今天所做的一切,只是為了美元再次真正降息以後的國內通膨找對衝。否則別說美帝了,美國也沒戲。帝國主義從一開始,就是慢性自殺。自八國聯軍到十六國聯軍,有哪個好下場?

中國將以舉世最強的外匯儲備和貿易順差,配合肉眼可見的產業升級與科技突破,見證教科書級別的帝國主義最終隕落。
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1209#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-4 19:09:05 | 只看该作者
墨西哥對川普做出了有限的讓步。

作為暫停對墨西哥商品徵收一個月關稅的交換條件,墨西哥同意向邊境派遣一萬名士兵以加強打擊非法移民。

雙方進一步的談判即將舉行,美國希望利用貿易戰的威脅,迫使墨西哥在經濟和移民問題上做出其他讓步。在一個沒有規則、赤裸裸的實力統治的世界裡,川普的行為合乎邏輯。

因此,為了快速獲得勝利,讓這些國家接受條件,現在美國更傾向採取羞辱那些難以抵抗美國的弱小國家,尤其是本來就依賴美國的美國盟友們。

而那些原本就受到美國壓迫國家,這種方法可能無法奏效,因為她們早就處於這樣的壓力許久了。

但就目前而言,川普壓迫盟國的收穫仍處於領先地位。
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1210#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-4 20:34:47 | 只看该作者
但是這一次 人工智能大模型變成了大國競爭的一角,有些情況就變味了。這個時候砍出一條新路來,可能就是你死我活。科技不是醬香,不講品牌信仰,全靠數據和事實說話,這和消費賽道完全是兩回事,這也是巴菲特都說不擅長科技股的原因。

很顯然,巴菲特能看到本質,而大部分人的理解,多少還差點深刻的教訓。

02

DeepSeek到底行不行?雖然它的大模型已經開源了,還是有很多人還是不願意相信各種測試結果,當然測試的結果要是不理想,甚至全面落後,他們肯定是會相信的,但是現在中國的開源大模型領先之後,他們就不願意相信了。

但是咱們有一說一,他們說了不算,這事誰說了算呢?那還得是看美國政府認證的情況,你說的再厲害,美國不制裁,那都不一定是真的領先。反之,哪怕你默默無聞,美國政府卻對你發起全面制裁,那很可能是認證你掌握了真正的高科技,而且很可能是不被人所熟知的高科技。現在雖然還有人在質疑DeepSeek,但是來自美國政府的初步認證已經下發了,這不比你一幫狗子權威?

美國正對DeepSeek開展國家安全調查,當地時間1月28日,美國多名官員回應DeepSeek對美國的影響,表示DeepSeek是「偷竊」,正對其影響開展國家安全調查。就在前一天,美國總統特朗普還稱DeepSeek是很積極的技術成果。

基於誰領先誰就威脅美國國家安全的一貫原則,很顯然,DeepSeek這是領先了,要說它威脅美國的國家安全,那也沒錯,因為它嚴重威脅了美股的估值,甚至有可能導致美股崩盤。

擋人財路,如殺人父母,DeepSeek這是捅了馬蜂窩了。美股有大量的 人工智能概念股,估值不論高低,都面臨巨大的壓力,最主要的原因是估值的框架體系發生了根本性的變化,這一切都源於DeepSeek的低成本高產出優勢,徹底顛覆了之前人工智能企業和華爾街聯手講故事的整個邏輯。

所以現在說他們對DeepSeek恨之入骨,恨不得讓其立刻消失,應該說是一點也不誇張。這不就已經開始下黑手了,解決不了問題,還解決不了製造問題的破局者嗎?

DeepSeek最讓他們難受的,不僅是超高的投入產出比,改變了競爭的邏輯,更為關鍵的是,它開源了。一個免費的開源模型,很大程度上把各方勢力的財路都斷了,這還是小,美股的高估值那是真要命,沒人接盤的話,真沒法玩了。

一個人工智能大模型,要說什麼國家安全,那是誇大其詞了,現在的人工智能競爭,其實本質上還是產業鏈利潤的把持,或者說是賣鏟子的利潤分配問題,其他的都是賺吆喝。

https://beyondnews852.com/20250201/168884/

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1211#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-4 21:53:27 | 只看该作者
轉摘微博「前HR本人」

萬億GPT帝國崩塌前夜:DeepSeek用"算法核彈"炸穿美國AI霸權護城河

在ChatGPT掀起全球人工智能新浪潮兩年後,美國科技界正經歷前所未有的戰略焦慮。當中國AI公司DeepSeek以1/20的運營成本優勢撕開技術壟斷的缺口。英國議會熱烈討論英國可以在蘇格蘭建立AI算力中心,印度則在電子信息技術部部長親自主導用DeepSeek部署AI大模型,這場看似由硅谷主導的技術革命,正悄然演變爲重塑全球權力格局的轉折點。美國科技霸權賴以生存的三大支柱——技術壟斷、產業控制與敘事主導,正在同時遭遇歷史性挑戰。

一、技術護城河崩塌:DeepSeek引發的成本革命,導致AI底座可能被中國公司搶了,連OpenAI也自己套殼DeepSeek,因爲DeepSeek的運營成本是OpenAI的1/20不到,已經擊毀他們業務模式。因爲DeepSeek可能成爲AI的安卓系統。

OpenAI每年燒掉數十億美元維持的GPT模型,在DeepSeek的算法突破面前突然顯得笨重而昂貴。DeepSeek通過動態稀疏激活技術,將千億參數模型的訓練成本壓縮到行業平均水平的5%,其最新開源的DeepSeek-R1模型在自然語言理解基準測試中超越GPT-4o的表現,卻只需要相當於後者1/18的能耗。這種技術代差帶來的不僅是商業模式的顛覆,更預示着全球AI競賽規則的改寫。

當OpenAI開始在其企業服務中嵌入DeepSeek的底層架構,硅谷工程師們意識到過去用資本堆積技術壁壘的時代正在終結,以爲有英偉達GPU卡就主導未來的期望破滅了。DeepSeek獨創的"漸進式知識蒸餾"技術,使得中小機構用百萬級預算就能訓練出媲美萬億參數大模型的效果。據GitHub統計,DeepSeek相關項目已獲得超35萬次代碼貢獻,形成僅次於Meta的全球第二大開源AI社區。這種“技術衆包”模式正在改寫AI創新的遊戲規則。

DeepSeek主導制定的《AI模型稀疏計算國際標準》獲ISO採納,首次由中國企業定義基礎架構規則,乃至引發了美國AI企業更深層的危機、即就是產業生態的重構。OpenAI急急忙忙套殼DeepSeek上線,大話吹破皮;美國企業突然發現自己從規則制定者變成了技術適配者。這種角色轉換帶來的不僅是利潤流失,更是對整個AI產業鏈控制權的動搖。

二、數字主權覺醒:低成本和開源就是核武器。全球算力版圖的多極化突圍,從美國壟斷AI,到全世界各國看到機會,開始搞自己的數據中心,想在AI領域站住腳。這種AI普及化卻不是基於美國的,可見美國人的抓狂程度。

這種技術普及化正在引發鏈式反應——印尼的Gojek用DeepSeek框架開發出東南亞首個本土大語言模型,巴西聖保羅大學基於其開源代碼搭建起南美最大的醫療AI平臺。美國企業引以爲傲的"技術護城河",正在被來自中國的創新洪流沖垮。
甚至非洲的農業科技公司利用DeepSeek-MoE-16B開發出斯瓦希里語作物病害診斷系統,成本僅爲閉源方案的1/20;

DeepSeek開源,印度科技部門樂開了花,揚言十個月內搞出自己的大模型。歐洲也開始跟進,英國等很多國家用DeepSeek做本地化應用。以前他們一直被美國的AI公司壓着,現在有了DeepSeek,他們能自己搞點事,至少能在本地化和個性化上跟得上。甚至英國想基於DeepSeek開發和部署歐洲的AI計算中心。
歐洲盟友基於中國開源AI技術開發工業大模型,美國商務部終於意識到,其出口管制的鐵幕正在加速技術多極化的形成。其靠AI壟斷賺高額利潤的路子變成死衚衕。

全球算力市場的數據印證着這場靜默革命,越看越多的國家採用的是中國的AI技術,甚至連算力卡都可以用中國華爲的昇騰910B處理器。這些數字背後,是美元與技術霸權雙重加持下的AI單極秩序正在瓦解。

三、再工業化幻滅:美國再工業化夢想可能崩塌,美國敘事體系的解構危機。

實際上,美國精英階層都明白,美國當前高昂的人力資源成本已經讓他們在全球製造業供應鏈上沒有競爭力,除了個別類似芯片、醫藥等附加值高產業外,常規手段製造業是回不去的。

AI到來和算法的領先,讓美國人看到希望的曙光,他們妄圖通過巨大的國內市場和全自動化辦法,解決製造業回顧問題。

當福特汽車放棄在密歇根州建設AI驅動的"未來工廠",轉而向中國寧德時代購買智能製造解決方案時,美國再工業化的宏大敘事遭遇現實重擊。當特斯拉上海工廠用DeepSeek算法將Model Y的焊接工序從32道減少到8道時,底特律的工程師們突然發現,他們追趕的不僅是生產效率,更是一套全新的製造哲學。
白宮設想的"機器人+可再生能源"製造業復興模式,在DeepSeek等中國AI工業互聯網平臺面前顯得蒼白無力。這種效率代差直接動搖了美國的經濟復甦邏輯。波士頓諮詢的報告顯示,使用中國AI工業平臺的企業,其產品迭代速度提升300%,庫存週轉率改善150%,而這些正是再工業化戰略的核心指標。

站在2025年的門檻回望,美國在AI領域的焦慮本質上是全球化2.0時代秩序重構的縮影。當DeepSeek用算法證明技術創新可以突破資本與權力的圍牆,當美國再工業化敘事在效率鐵律前潰敗,我們看到的不僅是某個領域的競爭態勢變化,更是文明演進範式的根本轉型。
這場沒有硝煙的科技戰爭最終將證明,在算力與算法構建的新世界裏,真正的霸權不屬於任何國家,而屬於那些能持續解放技術創造力的國家和企業。
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1212#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-5 08:47:30 | 只看该作者
United States Army General Mark A Milley, who served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the first Trump administration, reportedly considered resigning over the incident in front of the St. John's Church, going so far as to draft a highly critical resignation letter to President Trump, but then deciding against handing the letter over to him. The resignation letter draft was later published in 2022

Milley was a highly decorated Commanding General in the Army, served in many operations, and was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from September 30, 2019 to September 30, 2023. He considered resignation several times, most notably when Trump had pulled Milley from an important meeting to use as an escort to get through the fog of tear gas at the capital during a protest so that Trump could get his picture taken holding a Bible in front of a church.

Please read and consider:

"The events of the last couple weeks have caused me to do deep soul-searching, and I can no longer faithfully support and execute your orders as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is my belief that you were doing great and irreparable harm to my country. I believe that you have made a concerted effort over time to politicize the United States military. I thought that I could change that. I’ve come to the realization that I cannot, and I need to step aside and let someone else try to do that.

Second, you are using the military to create fear in the minds of the people—and we are trying to protect the American people. I cannot stand idly by and participate in that attack, verbally or otherwise, on the American people. The American people trust their military and they trust us to protect them against all enemies, foreign and domestic, and our military will do just that. We will not turn our back on the American people.

Third, I swore an oath to the Constitution of the United States and embodied within that Constitution is the idea that says that all men and women are created equal. All men and women are created equal, no matter who you are, whether you are white or Black, Asian, Indian, no matter the color of your skin, no matter if you’re gay, straight or something in between. It doesn’t matter if you’re Catholic, Protestant, Muslim, Jew, or choose not to believe. None of that matters. It doesn’t matter what country you came from, what your last name is—what matters is we’re Americans. We’re all Americans. That under these colors of red, white, and blue—the colors that my parents fought for in World War II—means something around the world. It’s obvious to me that you don’t think of those colors the same way I do. It’s obvious to me that you don’t hold those values dear and the cause that I serve.

And lastly it is my deeply held belief that you’re ruining the international order, and causing significant damage to our country overseas, that was fought for so hard by the Greatest Generation that they instituted in 1945. Between 1914 and 1945, 150 million people were slaughtered in the conduct of war. They were slaughtered because of tyrannies and dictatorships. That generation, like every generation, has fought against that, has fought against fascism, has fought against Nazism, has fought against extremism. It’s now obvious to me that you don’t understand that world order. You don’t understand what the war was all about. In fact, you subscribe to many of the principles that we fought against. And I cannot be a party to that. It is with deep regret that I hereby submit my letter of resignation."

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1213#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-6 15:37:17 | 只看该作者
Writers at The New York Times, the Guardian, and other mainstream press are this week working really hard to mislead their readers into thinking the USAID was purely an aid group, nothing more. But Elon Musk says it is a “criminal organization” which was “beyond repair”.
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What’s the real story? A study of its accounts reveals that its huge budget (US$50 billion a year) means it does have plenty of cash to give out for actual aid work—but the money often came with some distressing strings attached: “sterilize your women or you get nothing this year”.
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The fact is that USAID has a long history of political interference in other countries, often in ways that would cause outrage if other nations tried doing the same thing in United States politics.
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U.S. ASSETS FROM HONG KONG
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USAID’s political activism is often just millimeters under the surface.
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For example, on 14 December, 2021, USAID administrator Samantha Power held a meeting with Nathan Law, a man widely used as a US asset against China. Law was leading figure in the anti-extradition protests that created a months-long 2019 violent insurgency that led to billions of dollars’ worth of damage to the infrastructure of the city.
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Also present at the USAID meeting was Brian Leung Kai-ping, director of the Hong Kong Democracy Council. Despite that name, the group is an anti-China campaigning body founded and based in Washington DC. (Nathan Law would later be banned from attendance at HKDC meetings and dropped as a western asset after the group received credible accusations that he was a sexual harasser.)
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Why would a real AID group be working with anti-China political activists from wealthy Hong Kong? USAID's policy was to withdraw from places which had reached prosperity, and it had withdrawn from South Korea, Turkey, and other places.
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The answer was obvious to anyone who has done any serious reading about USAID: it is a dual purpose body, used as a charity group and as a CIA-linked instrument for the advancement of US interests globally.
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A BRIEF HISTORY
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1961
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On November 3, 1961, USAID was founded to administer the foreign aid efforts of the United States. But they weren’t there to just hand out cash. US aid policy had been set earlier by President Harry S. Truman with two goals, commercial and political: to reduce poverty with the aim of creating consumer markets for the United States, and to spread capitalism by moving the world away from socialism/ communism.
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1962 onwards
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But the CIA quickly spotted an opportunity to enhance their influence around the world, and got deeply involved.
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In 1962, USAID launched its Office of Public Safety, working with the CIA to send agents around the world to “train police officers”.
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But the trainers were playing dirty, teaching “enhanced interrogation techniques” that were simply forms of torture. The news leaked out in 1966. After years of controversy, the OPS was finally shut down in 1974 – although the CIA continued to use the “enhanced interrogation techniques”, and went on to share them with the military.
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MASS STERILIZATION
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1966 onwards
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The US decided that it wanted global population control, so USAID launched its Office of Population. The country passed new laws which said that poorer nations could henceforth only get cash aid if they established population control organizations to cut the number of births in their countries. USAID created a global network of groups to promote mass sterilization and abortion globally.
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1980
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By 1980, USAID administrator John Gilligan was openly saying that the organization was simply a “graduate school for the CIA”. This was not some disgruntled ex-staff member – this was the working leader of the organization at the time. Father George Cotter, a priest who worked with USAID multiple times, wrote in an academic journal in 1981 that USAID operated as “the CIA’s little sister”.
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1993
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USAID effectively took control of Peru’s national health system from 1993 to 1998.  They were involved in a program which resulted in the forced sterilization of approximately 300,000 indigenous women, according to documents uncovered using the Freedom of Information Act.
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Despite an outcry, USAID did not stop funding sterilizations in Peru until 1998. It later became evident that an artificially shrunken generation in rural areas increased poverty among people who were already struggling.
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SAVVY BRAZIL, NAÏVE HONG KONG
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1990s
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USAID announced it would manage Russia’s transition to a market economy, and funded a group called the Harvard Institute for International Development to run it. However, the project became bogged down with conflicts of interest and accusations of corruption – and Harvard University eventually settled a lawsuit with the US govt for $26 million for mismanaging the project.
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2005
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USAID funded “democracy” seminars and workshops in Brazil, for members of the country’s congress and others. This was exactly what another US political interference body, the National Endowment for Democracy, was doing in Hong Kong.
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But the Brazilians were far more politically savvy than the less-politicized people of Hong Kong. Brazilians expressed deep discomfort about the level of US involvement in their legislative processes and edged the foreign agents out. Hong Kong did not—and would pay the price in 2014 and 2019.
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USING AID ‘TO BUY VOTES’
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2006
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A long-term Harvard study of US aid handouts in 2006 revealed that poor countries received millions of dollars more from the US IF they were taking their turn on the 15-member UN Security Council.
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When their turn on the influential body was over, there would be a sharp drop in US cash for those nations.
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The study  tracked U.S. economic and military assistance from 1946 to 2001. Critics said the findings clearly showed how US aid was used to buy UN votes. USAID denied this.
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2009 to 2012
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USAID ran an infamous program to incite regime change in Cuba. This consisted of two operations.
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One created an anti-government digital social network called ZunZuneo.
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The other was a program which sent out CIA agents disguised as aid workers and tourists to cultivate groups of anti-government activists. The multi-million dollar program failed.
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2012
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By this time, many countries realized what USAID was really doing and worked on developing legislation to ban the organization from their shores. This included Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda. In 2013, Bolivia ejected USAID.
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2016
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By 2016, there was growing puzzlement that “the Panama papers”, which was supposedly a 2015 global leak of financial information of powerful people, seemed to largely target US enemies like Russia and Syria and China.  
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In 2016, Wikileaks pointed out that the journalism group behind it was funded by USAID and units controlled by George Soros, a billionaire known for using his money to spread anti-east media narratives.
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2024
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It was revealed that USAID was a major supporter of BBC Media Action.
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This is a “charity” that goes around the world preaching to journalists that western standards of moderation are “correct” and the rest of the world’s standards of moderation are “wrong”.
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For example, trainers disregard claims by Singapore and China that their tighter standards of moderation created enough stability to lift their populations out of poverty, even though the evidence shows that this was exactly what happened.
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2025
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To sum up: yes, USAID ran a great many charity projects. You cannot give away $40 billion to $50 billion a year without some positive effects.
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But from its earliest days, it has been infected by the CIA and wedded to the larger goals of US foreign policy. In many cases, the methods used by USAID and its offshoots have been highly problematic to say the least. The list above is just a tiny fraction of the projects with which USAID has been involved. Some might be entirely innocent. Many, clearly were not.
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Yet it cannot be denied that its key goal, overall, was to push US dominance on the world. And let’s not forget: even if USAID does go through a dramatic restructuring, the ultimate aim of US foreign policy has not yet been publicly abandoned.
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1214#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-7 13:12:32 | 只看该作者
隨著美國資金凍結,中國非營利組織面臨滅絕。他們需要緊急援助

「整個與中國有關的重要工作生態系統現在正陷入危機。上週,川普政府凍結了外國資金和美國國際開發署的項目,香港、台灣和美國的數十家非營利組織立即受到影響。員工正在失去工作;一些組織因缺乏資金而面臨關閉的危險;其他人則在削減他們的計畫。

在很多情況下,這些組織為我們了解中國實際情況提供了最後的窗口。他們從事著艱苦且常常冒著個人風險的工作,追蹤中國媒體審查制度、統計當地抗議活動、揭露侵犯人權行為、記錄維吾爾族種族滅絕以及支持中國剩餘的公民社會。他們為中國人提供了自由發言的平台;他們幫助中國實現民主的夢想。我現在不會列出任何特定組織的名稱,因為有些組織不願意透露他們接受外國資助。北京認為支持言論自由和人權的資金是「外國敵對勢力」的干涉。

由於中國國家主席習近平壓制中國公民社會並驅逐記者,中國內部的資訊變得越來越難以取得。 2017年中國推出的《境外非政府組織管理法》嚴厲打擊了駐華的美國和其他外國非營利組織。有些人移居到了香港或其他地方。支出凍結可能會給他們帶來致命的打擊。

這些非營利組織所做的研究和其他工作是無價的。智庫、大學、私人公司或記者基本上不會複製這一點。如果它消失,就沒有任何東西可以取代它,北京粉碎它的任務就完成了。

身為一名報道中國十餘年的記者,當我需要某些資訊時,我可以向眾多機構求助,這是理所當然的。但唐納德·川普的對外支出凍結暴露了這些組織對單一政府的生存依賴程度,以及我們有關中國的資訊來源有多脆弱。

美國必須立即向專注於中國的非營利組織提供緊急豁免。如果美國做不到這一點,那麼世界各國珍惜民主、人權和真理的其他政府必須立即介入,找到恢復對這些組織的資助的方法。不需要花太多功夫;只需幾個捐助國提供數百萬美元就足以維護這些組織所代表的研究、專業知識和網路。

無論美國是否繼續資助這項工作,這場危機都應成為世界各地民主國家的警鐘。單一政府的資金不應該成為我們避免對中國公民社會進行資訊封鎖的唯一障礙。這並不是國際民主復原力的典範。

為在中國境外運作的中國非營利組織提供資金與民主國家的核心利益直接相關。我們的安全基礎是這樣的理念:民主制度是​​保障長期穩定、繁榮和公民福祉的最佳途徑。政府預算的存在是為了維護實現這些目標的民主制度;我們不會為了削減預算而犧牲這些理想。

中國議程的關鍵部分是透過欺騙和脅迫等手段,讓本國公民和世界相信民主制度並不更好。北京聲稱其體制是保證經濟繁榮和穩定的最佳方式,聲稱其一黨制是精英統治。

要證明北京在說謊、他所提供的只是障眼法,雖然花費不多,但卻十分困難,而且費時。這些工具使我們能夠揭露中國自身體制的缺陷和中國人民面臨的實際鬥爭,直接支持民主政府的目標、安全和韌性。

如果沒有中國非營利組織所做的努力,要揭露中國國內的經濟和政治治理模式存在嚴重缺陷就會困難得多。如果我們不再能證明這一點,那就很難理解為什麼民主值得我們為此奮鬥。」

這篇的作者Bethany 貝書穎,標註自己所在的位置是台灣.台北。

現在Neocom 苦心經營了幾十年的網路,正在因為潮水退了而慢慢浮出水面。

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赞川建国  发表于 2025-2-9 12:12
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1215#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-7 13:16:13 | 只看该作者
“超级战狼”卢沙野,就任新岗位欧洲道大总管;欧洲小可爱失魂落魄,集体破防,鸡飞狗跳。一起破防的还有台湾叛乱政权的蔡正元博士,蔡博士假小编之名语言最近越发粗鲁,不忍卒视。

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油菜: 5.0 给力: 5.0
涨姿势: 5.0 油墨: 5.0
油墨: 5 油菜: 5 给力: 5 涨姿势: 5
哈哈哈哈  发表于 2025-2-9 12:12
油菜: 5 给力: 5 涨姿势: 5
  发表于 2025-2-7 23:59

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参与人数 2爱元 +20 收起 理由
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1216#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-8 00:22:17 | 只看该作者
川普下令制裁國際刑事法院(ICC),因為根據《羅馬規約》設立的國際刑事法院(ICC)對美國及其親密盟友以色列採取了非法和毫無根據的行動。
美國認定國際刑事法院在毫無正當依據的情況下,對美國及包括以色列在內的部分盟友的人員行使管轄權並展開初步調查,並進一步濫用職權,對以色列總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡和前國防部長約阿夫·加蘭特發出毫無根據的逮捕令。
這種惡意行為威脅並侵犯美國的主權,破壞了美國政府及其包括以色列在內的盟友的重要國家安全和外交政策工作。
國際刑事法院的法官們將受到總計12章的制裁,其中包括「在美國境內、今後進入美國境內,現在或今後由任何美國人佔有或控制的所有財產和財產權益均被凍結,不得轉讓、支付、出口、提取或以其他方式處理。」
「禁止任何逃避或避免、旨在逃避或避免、導致違反或試圖違反本命令規定的任何禁令的交易。」
我記得,當初國際刑事法院發出逮捕令,許多人稱讚國際刑事法院敢對抗俄羅斯,希望他們現在也能繼續支持ICC 對抗美國
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1217#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-8 14:25:44 | 只看该作者
轉摘微博「戰刀007」

烏克蘭背後大金主被幹掉,川普此舉令俄感激涕零:給全世界除了一害!

近期,美國國際開發署(USAID)官網被無預警關閉,該機構也面臨被解散的危險。川普告訴議員稱,他準備將這個獨立的機構併入美國國務院。要知道,這家機構實在是大名鼎鼎,一手遮天,甚至把全世界局勢攪得天翻地覆。

當初烏克蘭之所以爆發騷亂,就是這個國際開發署的傑作。不僅提供了大批的資金,甚至派遣具體的狙擊手,射殺基輔維持治安的警察,激發烏克蘭全面動盪。除了在烏克蘭,非洲大陸乃至中東地區,也都可以看到這個國際開發署的身影。

俄羅斯人可謂是做夢都想把這個機構給幹掉,雙方可謂是苦大仇深。但是俄羅斯的夢想如今被川普和馬斯克聯手實現了。目前這個機構已經被凍結,數千人被強制休假、裁員,很多項目也已經被停止。
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1218#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-8 15:22:39 | 只看该作者
德國總理舒茲提議在格陵蘭增加北約軍隊駐紮的數量,其理由是需要防止「邊界改變」。

他說:「俄羅斯和中國對格陵蘭島構成威脅」。

問題是,說要兼併格陵蘭的是美國啊 !! 直接說歐洲要對抗美國有這麼難嗎?

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1219#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-8 15:30:39 | 只看该作者
https://dszh.xyz/show.php?f=1&t=2190175&m=19358037

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1220#
 楼主| 发表于 2025-2-8 15:33:34 | 只看该作者
論語言的藝術

烏克蘭並不會「放棄」國家的任何資源,而是採取主動提出互利合作開發,但烏克蘭領土內50% 的資源現在由俄羅斯控制——澤連斯基接受路透社採訪時表示:

▪️俄羅斯佔領了烏克蘭約一半的稀土礦藏;
▪️有必要阻止俄羅斯人並保護烏克蘭中部非常富饒的第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克地區;
▪️川普可以告訴普丁:「聽著,你剛剛拿走了數兆美元,這樣做事情是行不通的。 你必須交還屬於另一個國家的東西」;
▪️重要的是人們要明白,烏克蘭正在談判,但不會接受俄羅斯的最後通牒;
▪️安全保障是我想要與川普總統討論的主要問題;
▪️那些保護我們的人將會重建烏克蘭;
▪️ 美國人幫助最多,因此美國人應該賺得最多。他們必須享有這個優先權,而且也會如此;
▪️烏克蘭可以利用龐大的地下儲氣設施來購買並儲存美國液化天然氣。
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