TSLA神马时候倒闭

李根

特斯拉TSLA神马时候倒闭，这是一个问题。

特斯拉一直是在赔本赚吆喝，季报一次比一次难看，靠着始终能忽悠到投资才撑下来。最便宜的Model3预订量三四十万台，结果去年一整年所有车型一共才造出来十万辆，上个季度Model3仅仅生产1550辆，可见很多问题都没有理顺。

特斯拉能撑下去继续烧钱，俺觉得取决于宏观经济形势。如果真的由牛转熊，投资不再便宜易得了，下订单的拥趸们自己也缺钱了，特斯拉垮台是大概率事件。

当然这仅仅是俺的两分钱。

刚用SpaceX的超级火箭“猎鹰重型”把特斯拉跑车送上太空的马斯克，公布了一份史上亏损额最大的季报。

2月7日，特斯拉公布了2017年第四季度财报，当季特斯拉亏损6.75亿美元，即每股亏损4.01美元，比上一年的1.21亿美元亏损额大幅增加。不过，特斯拉调整后每股亏损为3.04美元，低于分析师预期的每股亏损3.12美元。同时，该季度特斯拉收入为33亿美元，与前一年同比增长10亿美元，超过分析师预计的29亿美元。

这多少缓解了投资者的担忧。

截至2月7日收盘，在当日美国三大股指齐跌的趋势下，特斯拉股价逆势上扬，涨幅达3.3%，报收345.00美元，市值达到564亿美元。

同时，特斯拉也重申了公司仍在朝着Model 3的既定的量产目标前进。但特斯拉同时提醒投资者，2018年公司支出还会“轻微增加”。

据华尔街日报2月7日报道，特斯拉该季度的现金流有所改善，仅烧掉了2.77亿美元的现金，这主要是由于Model 3生产延迟导致需要持续追加投资。此外，Model S轿车和Model X SUV销量比去年同期增加了35%，令客户的定金比3个月前增加了24%。多亏了这两款价格昂贵的车型，特斯拉2017年的销售量创下记录，达到了10.3万辆。

据路透社2月8日报道，特斯拉接下来能否取得成功，取决于Model 3车型的销售收入。特斯拉称，Model 3该季度的网上预订量保持稳定。

但由于电池问题导致的生产延迟让Model 3无法按时递交消费者。财报中显示，2017年第四季度只有1550辆车生产并递交，远低于分析师4100辆的预期，也导致收Model 3从最受期待的收入来源，变成了特斯拉所有车型中的垫底。

Model 3售价35000美元起，是特斯拉给予厚望的平价电动汽车车型。

特斯拉CEO埃隆˙马斯克在电话会议中对投资者表示，公司会在2018年扭亏为盈，“在2018年，我们希望能开启正面、稳定的营业收入，每周生产5000辆Model 3。”

路透社报道中称，马斯克维持了原先设立的目标：截至2020年，生产100万台Model 3，并希望能在2018年年底之前，为Model Y SUV车型追加投资。约两年前，马斯克为特斯拉产量做出的目标是，2018年年产量50万辆，但Model 3遇到的麻烦让这个目标难以实现。

特斯拉还表示，2018年，由于要扩大生产，资本花销将会比2017年“轻微增加”。

除了生产延迟的Model 3之外持续需要资金投入之外，特斯拉另外要求大额投资的新项目包括，最近刚揭晓的Tesla Semi半挂式卡车、未来需要生产的高端运动轿车Model Y SUV和一家中国工厂。

https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/ ... -model-3-production

冰蚁

天晓得那个电池组装什么时候能搞定，如果确实是电池问题的话。

李根

冰蚁 发表于 2018-2-19 22:19
天晓得那个电池组装什么时候能搞定，如果确实是电池问题的话。

据说特斯拉的钱都被日本电池厂商赚走了，一辆车四成的售价是电池钱

冰蚁

李根 发表于 2018-2-19 22:23
据说特斯拉的钱都被日本电池厂商赚走了，一辆车四成的售价是电池钱

...

反正说什么电池生产的某环节不能自动化生产，要手工，所以这么慢。真是这个问题的话，这么多年搞不定，也是服了。

martian

特斯拉是否能活下去取决于资金成本。不只是特斯拉，还有兲朝的共享单车。08年金融危机后各国央行轮番宽松，造就了极低的资金成本。随着货币政策正常化，未能实现盈利的项目会遭投资方撤资。

补充一个，美国的页岩油也是。

小米粒

廉价资金赌产业新突破！
石油价格会被床破搞上去滴。多高，不知道，看博弈。

糊里糊涂

现在大家都是搞些扯淡研究，没有真正的科技大突破，所以这样看来，马应龙还算不错的了。

不过马应龙记录不好，搞什么什么不赚钱，也就美国这个环境下这种大忽悠还能继续忽悠，假药停忽悠了一下现在就没法再忽悠了。

indy

Anton Wahlman
Will Tesla Have To Pre-Announce A 42% Q1 Sales Miss?

Mar. 4, 2018 3:07 PM•TSLA

Summary

We now have sales numbers for January and February for Tesla’s biggest countries, including the US and Europe.

For some, we have only January as of yet, but they are remarkably consistent with the ones from whom we also have February numbers.

Adding it all up, it’s looking like a 42% shortfall for Tesla.

Adding up all geographies, it looks like Tesla sold an estimated 11,548 cars in January and February combined.  Can Tesla deliver a similar number - 11,548 - in March alone?

If so, the quarter would end at 23,096 units - a 42% shortfall from a 40,000 unit consensus (25,000 Model S and X combined, plus 15,000 Model 3).

indy

没有下限

lorry

现在老美的新能源车补贴政策怎么样？

indy

不妙

indy

无底

indy

http://redbullmoneytalk.blogspot.com/2018/03/the-end-is-coming.html?m=1

RedBull Money Talk
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Friday, March 30, 2018
The end is coming?

It has been the Street darling for many years and it can keep alluring people to get in regardless how fundamentally not justifiable. But the big question right now is if the company is on the verge of crash or even ending? I’m talking about Tesla (TSLA). I may be offending many Tesla lovers here by talking about the end of it but I have to be honest with you regarding what I’m thinking. Fundamentally Tesla is indeed in a big trouble as each day passing.

You may recall that not long ago, I was even making a technical bullish case for Tesla for a potential bull flag breakout although I have never been a fan of Tesla from the fundamental perspective. As I said, it was trading within a very large flag range between $300 to $360 and purely from the technical point of view, it could be very bullish if breaking out through its up end beyond $360 and if so, it could easily shoot up another 100 points in the following weeks or months. But if it breaks down through the support around $300, then the bull flag game is negated and it would be ugly for Tesla. Right now we are definitely seeing the worst case scenario for Tesla, which has been trading as low as $250. Technically it is an ugly outlook but what should really concern all the Tesla bulls about is its fundamental challenges that may kill Tesla. There are two major fundamental issues Tesla is facing:

While Tesla has been in the leadership role in the EV market, the reality is that almost all the major car makers are developing their EVs. So the competition is becoming more and more ferocious and intensifying each day. This of course is not good news for Tesla when it desperately needs to maintain its market shares to generate enough money for survival.  
More problematic is its current financial situation that is really dire and dangerous. As I said before, Tesla has no way to make enough money to run its business and it has to burn money continuously. The key for its life is having access to solid financing. Right now, Tesla is burning $3.5 billion each year and currently only has $3.4 billion cash on hand. It has another close to $1 Billion debt that is coming due soon. When a company is generating healthy cash flow from its business, it usually has no problems to get loans even if its business is losing money overall, as long as there is no risk for the company to service the loan by paying the interests on time. But if this prospect is under question, the creditors will get nervous and will first request for higher interests for the increased risk or even run away by refusing to provide the loan. So tell you one important trick in investing: if a company’s stock is crashing but its bond price is still doing well, it is usually indicative of a short-term temporary issue for the company, not a fundamental problem. But if a company’s bond price starts to fall sharply, it often means there are some significant fundamental problems for the company that may not be fixed easily, especially in a short term. Tesla is facing such a dangerous reality: Moody has just downgraded Tesla’s overall rating to B3, six levels below investment-grade – and gave the company a negative outlook. In addition, Moody recently slashed the rating for a Tesla’s debt worth $1.8 Billion to Caa1, which is the junkiest of the junk-bonds. In other words, Tesla is really facing a life or death situation and the bond market has already reflected this danger. See this Forbes’ report:  Tesla's Bonds Are In Freefall As The Financial Noose Tightens; Musk Needs To Sell Stock Now.
So what choices Musk has for now? Only two that I can think about: he either pays higher interests to renew his loan which he can hardly afford now or he has to issue new shares to get more money from dumb investors. The latter is probably more likely at the moment and it will mean a significant dilution of the existing shares that will dampen the stock price further when this happens. I personally will definitely not put my money into Tesla for any long term purposes as I think there is a real likelihood that Tesla may not even survive this year. Of course, I could be totally wrong as Musk has demonstrated that he indeed has some unique magic that can always calm down the fears of investors during crisis and can still walk away with the money he wants to kick the can further down the road. But I don’t want to bet on this for myself! Technically Tesla is quite oversold short term and it won’t surprise me to see it bounce back towards the overhead resistance around $290. But I think we may start to see another freefall if it gets there and good luck for Tesla and Musk regarding how low it can go.
深山老林Deep Woods at 7:43 PM
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