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标题: 这贸易战还打吗？ [打印本页]

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2018-4-13 12:39
标题: 这贸易战还打吗？
博鳌上老大发话了，世界一片欣慰，这贸易战看来打不起来了。且慢，人民日报说了，挥舞保护主义大棒的国家不在中国开放政策的受惠国范围内；中国商业部也申明，中美之间没有就关税问题有任何谈判。当然，特朗普说，真真是在谈判了。

谈判是要两方的。个人相信中方的话：没有谈判。

那问题来了：美方的500亿清单、中方的30亿加500亿清单怎么办？是双方让火车继续对开，不拉闸，看谁先闪？还是已经内定这事就算悄悄完了？

个人感觉：双方都在等对方先拉闸，但谁都不愿成为先“让步”的一方。

火车还在“相向而行”。

作者: huma 时间: 2018-4-13 12:46
打，打，不打是小狗

作者: 燕庐敕 时间: 2018-4-13 12:46
想起老萨写的，铁路老大们要靠撞车考验，路权归谁的段子了。

作者: colin1992 时间: 2018-4-13 12:47
继续嘴炮好了，不要落地

作者: holycow 时间: 2018-4-13 12:55
本帖最后由 holycow 于 2018-4-12 22:11 编辑

White House Plans to Escalate Trade Pressure on China

U.S. soon will detail which products are on $100 billion list of goods subject to tariffs; Treasury seeks to block Chinese tech investment in U.S.

WASHINGTON—The Trump White House, confident that its hard-line strategy is succeeding, is planning to ratchet up the pressure on China by focusing on new tariffs and threatening to block Chinese technology investment in the U.S., according to officials familiar with the strategy.

The additional moves come as President Donald Trump has told his senior aides to investigate the possibility of joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a move that would reverse a Trump campaign promise and further challenge China, which isn’t part of the trade pact.

For its part, China is looking to line up other countries against the U.S., Chinese officials said—especially in Europe, whose companies could benefit should China react to the stepped up pressure by retaliating against the U.S. Beijing has already responded to early volleys from Washington in the trade conflict with retaliatory tariffs of its own.

Administration officials familiar with the U.S. strategy say that the U.S. trade representative, as early as next week, will detail which products are on the list of $100 billion in Chinese goods subject to 25% import tariffs. The initial hit list of $50 billion in Chinese imports didn’t include some consumer staples such as clothing, mobile phones or shoes, to minimize consumer impact and limit domestic criticism. But trade experts say the sheer size of the expansion of the hit list makes the inclusion of consumer goods inevitable.

At the same time, the Treasury Department is crafting sharp prohibitions on Chinese investment in advanced U.S. technology, whether by acquisition, joint ventures, licensing or any other arrangement, according to a senior administration official. The agency is targeting China’s subsidization of domestic industries to turn them into so-called technology national champions, the official said.

The administration is debating whether to make the investment restrictions permanent, even if China changes its industrial policies, the official said. The restrictions then could be used to make sure China carries out pledges and would warn other countries not to mimic Chinese behavior. The Treasury is expected to devise a plan by early June.

The actions come as administration officials argue the Chinese are already bending to the U.S.’s will. They point to a speech on Tuesday by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who promised to roll out measures this year to lower tariffs on imported cars and to ease foreign ownership restrictions on auto makers in China.

“It was the most conciliatory thing we’ve heard since the whole discussion began,” said a White House official. “Up to then, it was mean, nasty, cruel name-calling.”

Business groups in Washington, D.C., have been lobbying hard, telling the White House that tariffs are counterproductive. But administration officials have come to the opposite conclusion: They believe the threats are working. “China basically surrendered [with the Xi speech] and he [Trump] is probably going to put even more pressure on them before he accepts whatever their bottom line becomes,” said a person familiar with White House views.

Publicly, Chinese officials deny they are bending to Washington’s pressure, but privately, they acknowledge that the trade threats are leading them to accelerate their plans to liberalize.

Currently Beijing levies a 25% import tariff on vehicles, compared with the U.S. 2.5% tariff—an imbalance President Trump has repeatedly attacked, even though the U.S. has its own 25% tariffs on pickup trucks.

Beijing also requires foreign car makers to enter into a 50%-50% partnership with Chinese companies to set up plants. Chinese officials said the auto tariff would be reduced and the ownership cap would be lifted gradually, adding they might lift the cap within three to five years.

While that might seem slow to U.S. officials, such a timetable would require Beijing to take on powerful local interests, including state-owned firms. “Pressure from the U.S. is providing an impetus to the need for change,” said a Chinese official.

Resistance to such change was on display at a closed-door panel discussion Tuesday at the high-level Boao Forum, where politicians mingle with business leaders. China’s former commerce minister, Chen Deming, said at one panel that if Beijing were to make concessions in the auto sector, it should ask Washington for similar concessions in return, said people familiar with the discussions.

China’s new central banker Yi Gang, for instance, announced that foreign ownership caps on securities and life-insurance companies, which are currently being raised to 51% from 49%, would be abolished in three years. But the Trump administration and foreign companies don’t think that would help much because Chinese institutions now dominate the domestic securities and insurance markets. They seek immediate elimination of ownership caps.

Mr. Yi wouldn’t go that far. “The Chinese philosophy is gradualism,” he said.

Both sides are gearing up for a lengthy fight. When Mr. Trump announced the additional tariffs on $100 billion in goods on April 5, many trade experts dismissed it as simply talk. But officials said that it had been discussed earlier with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, among others.

According to the Trump White House, the U.S. had been judicious in its initial threat of tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods, which equals about 10% of Chinese merchandise exports to the U.S. of $506 billion. China quickly retaliated with its own $50 billion threat, but that equals 38% of the U.S.’s $130 billion in exports to China. The additional $100 billion in goods targeted for retaliation was meant to even the score—about 30% of China’s goods exports would be subject to tariffs, U.S. officials said. China said it would retaliate for these levies too but wasn’t specific.

To try to limit domestic opposition to its tough line, the administration now is working on a program, which could cost billions of dollars, to compensate farmers suffering from Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crops. Mr. Trump also said he would consider joining a reconstituted Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade group of 11 Pacific Rim nations, including Japan, which could give the U.S. additional leverage in any talks with China.

For its part, China is looking to line up other countries against the U.S. An editorial in the official People’s Daily after President Xi’s speech noted that new openings wouldn’t be applicable to countries that “wage trade wars.” Mr. Yi, the central banker, also said on Wednesday that a stock-trading link between Shanghai and London would be launched by the end of this year.

作者: holycow 时间: 2018-4-13 12:55
本帖最后由 holycow 于 2018-4-12 22:10 编辑

DELDELDELDEL

作者: 边寒剑 时间: 2018-4-13 13:20

作者: chnaus 时间: 2018-4-13 13:22
好像夫妻打架啊

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2018-4-13 13:27

holycow 发表于 2018-4-12 22:55
White House Plans to Escalate Trade Pressure on China

U.S. soon will detail which products are on $ ...

也就是说，白宫严重误判中国立场了。那就是要打了。要是中国推出针对性对策，优惠对美国之外，不知道美国会如何反应？

作者: ymorries 时间: 2018-4-13 13:33

晨枫发表于 2018-4-13 13:27
也就是说，白宫严重误判中国立场了。那就是要打了。要是中国推出针对性对策，优惠对美国之外，不知道美国 ...

T是先打再拉，X是先拉再说。那么谁是那只狐狸？

作者: lorry 时间: 2018-4-13 14:01
联储的加息是装腔作势的，如果市场给美债加息，就天下大乱了。川普看来真的楞。

作者: youyouyuyu 时间: 2018-4-13 14:27
当然要打了，这事没完。
川大大在下一对多的国际象棋。现在只是走到了叙利亚的跟前，别急，等这一圈转回来的时候。。。。

作者: xiejin77 时间: 2018-4-13 16:12
晨大，俺给你贡献点干货吧。

个人观察，自从贸易战的风声起来之后。每天早上上海外环的几个著名的集卡堆场下口就长时间处于拥堵状态。以往每个礼拜是一天堵，这几天是天天堵了。反过来说明，贸易战未停，所以都在抢着出货。

作者: 笔笔 时间: 2018-4-13 17:15

燕庐敕发表于 2018-4-13 12:46
想起老萨写的，铁路老大们要靠撞车考验，路权归谁的段子了。

真的吗？

作者: 燕庐敕 时间: 2018-4-13 17:30

笔笔发表于 2018-4-13 17:15
真的吗？

去问老萨呀。

作者: 莱茵河 时间: 2018-4-13 17:34
川总要去叙利亚打真炮了，没有时间跟中国打嘴炮

作者: pea 时间: 2018-4-13 18:55

xiejin77 发表于 2018-4-13 16:12
晨大，俺给你贡献点干货吧。

个人观察，自从贸易战的风声起来之后。每天早上上海外环的几个著名的集卡堆场 ...

集卡堆场是啥东东？

换美元的？

作者: 江城如画里 时间: 2018-4-13 20:53
感觉双方的政策都是明牌了，美方是两手，一方面抑制中方的未来发展，另一方面希望讹诈成功。中方则是不想打，但不怕打。
现在的平静是，中方是在等美方出牌后再决定升级不升级，而美方呢，刚刚还在幻想中国会在讹诈后屈服，这也是为啥博鳌讲话后，人民日报马上澄清说不遵行规则的国家无法享受开放待遇，并且一再否认美方放出的双方在谈的说法——也就是说不找台阶下。
就未来几天，美国恐怕还不会放弃讹诈的想法，比如再打台海牌；而中方也许会先发制人，利用军演自己把台海问题引爆了，不给美国讹诈的机会。
总之感觉吧，中方这边是不打无准备之仗，这仗应该是有所准备了。美方怎么样，还真是感觉控制不了。

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2018-4-13 21:45

江城如画里发表于 2018-4-13 06:53
感觉双方的政策都是明牌了，美方是两手，一方面抑制中方的未来发展，另一方面希望讹诈成功。中方则是不想打 ...

是的。特朗普本来就业余，现在更有到处捅一下，试试哪里你会痛。这等大事不是这样测试的。

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2018-4-13 21:46

xiejin77 发表于 2018-4-13 02:12
晨大，俺给你贡献点干货吧。

个人观察，自从贸易战的风声起来之后。每天早上上海外环的几个著名的集卡堆场 ...

难怪“开战”以来，中国对美顺差又加了20%。

作者: pcb 时间: 2018-4-13 22:23

pea 发表于 2018-4-13 18:55
集卡堆场是啥东东？

换美元的？

集装箱堆场

作者: jellobean 时间: 2018-4-13 23:13
火车同轨吗

作者: 龙血树 时间: 2018-4-13 23:26

晨枫发表于 2018-4-13 21:46
难怪“开战”以来，中国对美顺差又加了20%。

O(∩_∩)O哈哈~

作者: 四处乱晃 时间: 2018-4-14 00:19
闯总真是天生的网红啊，连发推的逻辑都一样。挑起贸易战话题A，碰瓷大咖，聚集一堆吃瓜群众，大打嘴炮，一旦嘴炮不占上风，转移话题B到叙利亚，如果再不占上风，再转战到话题C，比如伊朗伊拉克，等围观群众眼花缭乱之际，再回贸易战话题。不过这种小把戏网上玩玩可以，拿到国际政治上不够看。

作者: 常挨揍 时间: 2018-4-14 08:55

四处乱晃发表于 2018-4-14 00:19
闯总真是天生的网红啊，连发推的逻辑都一样。挑起贸易战话题A，碰瓷大咖，聚集一堆吃瓜群众，大打嘴炮，一 ...

王顾左右而言他

目前是打算重回TPP，鬼子居然说不打算重新谈判，要是再“言他”。。。

作者: martian 时间: 2018-4-14 10:28
热身运动都还没做完捏

作者: ccqi 时间: 2018-4-14 11:22
还得看最新的推特呀

作者: martian 时间: 2018-4-14 15:42

lorry 发表于 2018-4-13 14:01
联储的加息是装腔作势的，如果市场给美债加息，就天下大乱了。川普看来真的楞。 ...

会加息的

作者: 燕庐敕 时间: 2018-4-14 15:55

pcb 发表于 2018-4-13 22:23
集装箱堆场

可以反映实物的物流吧？

作者: 燕庐敕 时间: 2018-4-14 15:56

jellobean 发表于 2018-4-13 23:13
火车同轨吗

看似不是写给司机的。

是同轨，要对撞，谁先扛不住跳车谁输。

作者: lorry 时间: 2018-4-14 17:38

燕庐敕发表于 2018-4-14 15:56
看似不是写给司机的。

是同轨，要对撞，谁先扛不住跳车谁输。

The game of chicken.

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