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标题: 习特会，谈什么呢？ [打印本页]

作者: 五月 时间: 2017-4-3 09:33
标题: 习特会，谈什么呢？
本帖最后由五月于 2017-4-3 09:58 编辑

习特会，谈什么呢？

估计两个议题少不了，一是台湾，二是北韩。

蔡总上台，台独已经走出隐形台独，进入实操阶段。TG一直引而不发，就是要等中美元首会晤。会上要交好底，虽然斗争是不可避免的，但是交了底，能达成deal更好，即使达不成deal，斗起来也不至于像抗美援朝那样两国被拖进一场你死我活的血战。

TG一直死乞白赖地想建立“新型大国关系”。TG表白多次，人家美帝一直不接茬，TG只好悻悻地改口。谁知道这次帝勒森在北京的时候破天荒地重复了“不冲突不对抗相互尊重”的TG新型口头禅，这是好事，说明美帝还是准备做个deal的。

北韩本来不在TG的小本子上，但是小鑫不停地闹。换一个思路来想，美帝轰炸小鑫，难道是什么大不了的打脸大事吗？其实也不是。现在TG把自己撕掳清楚了，你小鑫不听话，被美帝打屁屁，TG站干岸看热闹，不死人不花钱，有何不可？如果美帝急着炸小鑫立威，拿小鑫来换台湾，那TG真是爽得不要不要的。

很多人被小鑫的大炮导弹唬住了，以为小鑫随时能“把汉城炸成火海”（汉城就是汉城，为毛听南棒的话叫什么首尔？）。在现代战争的侦查和打击技术手段下，小鑫的老式大炮没什么机会开炮，更不用说把谁谁谁“炸成火海”。火炮阵地即使全部洞库化，也需要火炮在阵地上展开，人员就位，弹药准备，最快十几分钟，慢得要几十分钟，这个时间足够美帝的精确武器打击几遍的了。如果美帝不用顾忌TG的威慑，那么一劳永逸地消除小鑫在核武和常规武器上对南棒的威胁显然是划算的事情，代价也许是几发落到汉城的炮弹而已。这个代价美帝和南棒都承受地起。

对北棒的军事打击很可能刺激小鑫进一步疯狂，疯狂带来嗜杀，嗜杀最终带来群臣反噬。这种案例在我朝史书上有无数的例子。主少国疑，少帝嗜杀。少帝嗜杀，权臣反噬。北棒权臣拥立新主，四面楚歌之际，还是要求天朝册封。借美帝的手打击小鑫，比TG自己在北棒策划政变不知道要好几倍，本身就是划算的买卖。

用小鑫换小蔡，这个deal对中美双方都划算。何乐而不为？

天佑中华。

作者: 逸龙哥 时间: 2017-4-3 10:31
和北京的直线距离决定后清宁可放弃台湾也不可能放弃朝鲜的。

作者: 馒头笼子 时间: 2017-4-3 15:39
中朝之间还有一个友好互助条约框着呢，2021年才到期
一旦朝鲜被攻击，按照条约，中国方面应该全力给予军事及其他援助
不过如果是斩首行动，中国怎么反应还真难说

作者: hellotojinge 时间: 2017-4-3 16:18
有人敢对拥核国家动手？就不怕它自爆么？核污染韩国就受不了。特朗普也就叫得凶，所谓叫的狗不咬人。
特朗普和习大大谈得更多的应该是制裁。只要坚持制裁，三胖军事设备随着风吹雨打都生了锈，无力更换，就只能抱着核弹吃饭了。但是如果让中国继续制裁，萨德啥的怎么处理？总得换点东西吧，比如把台湾的铺路爪撤了，或者南海如何处理？
另外就是经济。经济就是冷战中相互摧毁的核武装，美国中国互为依赖，谁也离不了谁。多谈几个deal，促进一下经济交往是正事。

作者: zilewang 时间: 2017-4-3 16:45

逸龙哥发表于 2017-4-3 10:31
和北京的直线距离决定后清宁可放弃台湾也不可能放弃朝鲜的。

总算有人说了一句大逆不道的实话。
有时候发现，洗脑还是蛮有用的。

作者: yoshiro 时间: 2017-4-3 16:52
北京有那么重要吗，大不了迁都呗，别把大佬想的跟炒房客是的，北京买了几套房就舍不得动窝了，大佬就是真代表了什么幕后利益集团，那也是全国甚至全世界布局的，北京真算不了什么。

能收回台湾，那倒是千古留名的。

作者: zilewang 时间: 2017-4-3 16:58

yoshiro 发表于 2017-4-3 16:52
北京有那么重要吗，大不了迁都呗，别把大佬想的跟炒房客是的，北京买了几套房就舍不得动窝了，大佬就是真代 ...

在古代中国，中国守不住北京，就意味着黄河以北不得为中国所有。而守不信台湾，也就台湾不复不为中国所有。

你说谁的价值大？

作者: yoshiro 时间: 2017-4-3 17:05

zilewang 发表于 2017-4-3 16:58
在古代中国，中国守不住北京，就意味着黄河以北不得为中国所有。而守不信台湾，也就台湾不复不为中国所有 ...

都啥年代了，还拿游牧民族南下的时候来说事，古代中国也没有东北啊。

如果真信北京不是首都，黄河以北就不为中国所有，我觉得可能真需要点脑白金了。

作者: 方恨少 时间: 2017-4-3 17:10
丢台湾和丢朝鲜都是千古骂名，没什么可换的。

作者: yoshiro 时间: 2017-4-3 17:43
朝鲜可从来不是中国领土，中国现在对北韩影响控制能力也很有限。

如果南北韩由南韩来统一，驻韩美军撤出来换台湾，我觉得土共没什么不愿意的。换个角度来想，如果北韩现在突然内部政变，上来一派要求和南部统一，你觉得土共能怎么办，直接派出军队到38线维持南北韩事实分裂？我看还真不一定有这个魄力。

当年法国也很不愿意两德统一，最后不一样要接受，而且现在法德关系还铁的很。现在还拿古代地缘政治和领土观念那套来思考，过时了。

作者: Dracula 时间: 2017-4-3 19:02
可能会谈Trump品牌怎么在中国发展，未来建设Trump酒店、高尔夫球场乃至赌场的规划。Ivanka的品牌可能也会涉及到。包括现在美国实际的国务卿Jared Kushner在666 Fifth Avenue的那栋楼可能会卖个更好的价钱。

Trump政府不能以常理度之。比如你说的Rex Tillerson在北京的时候破天荒地重复了“不冲突不对抗相互尊重”。Tillerson很可能根本就不知道这是TG的新型口头禅，觉得挺好听就接受了。从这里读不出什么深意。另外Tillerson就是个摆设，一点实权也没有，美国现在真正掌管外交政策尤其是对华关系的是Jared Kushner。他和中国尤其是安邦有不少商业联系的，只要中国在商业上给Trump和他足够的好处的话，中美关系不会出现大问题。

关于朝鲜，Trump昨天在金融时报采访时放出的狠话听听就行了，不必多么当真。他就是个纸老虎，最近医疗改革问题上连Freedom Caucus都搞不定，朝鲜问题要比医疗改革还要复杂很多，估计他可能会要求中国加强对朝鲜的制裁，但也就是那样了。

作者: rebos 时间: 2017-4-3 21:16
应该还有欧洲和中东,而且沙特和以色列都来访问, 美帝估计也会谈到中东以后的发展. 在欧洲,英国脱欧也是这两年的大戏,估计欧盟有求中国的地方会很多.

对于朝鲜,小打估计不起作用,大打美帝的政治成本太高,中俄都不会答应.

作者: 五月 时间: 2017-4-3 21:55

馒头笼子发表于 2017-4-3 15:39
中朝之间还有一个友好互助条约框着呢，2021年才到期
一旦朝鲜被攻击，按照条约，中国方面应该全力给予军事 ...

友好互助条约又不是美日安保条约, 总理那一辈革命家应该不会搞个军事同盟性质的条约给自己找个爹供起来.

抛弃小鑫跟抛弃北韩完全是两回事. 自家侄子欠揍, 自己不好动手, 请隔壁老王来揣几脚, 没啥打不了的. 北韩又飞不走. 小鑫被推翻了, 小鑫的下一任还得找天朝册封.

那小鑫换台湾, 太值了.

闯王现在内外交困, 如果能跟TG谈个deal, 打击小鑫显一把肌肉, 应该对他帮助很大, 说不定这笔买卖闯王就干了呢. 那样的话天朝就赚大发了.

作者: 五月 时间: 2017-4-3 22:05

hellotojinge 发表于 2017-4-3 16:18
有人敢对拥核国家动手？就不怕它自爆么？核污染韩国就受不了。特朗普也就叫得凶，所谓叫的狗不咬人。
特朗 ...

北韩是不是核国家还两说呢.

所谓的核试验到目前为止还仅仅是北韩自己宣布的, 几个大国并没有正式确认过.

作者: Dracula 时间: 2017-4-3 22:15
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-4-3 22:19 编辑

五月发表于 2017-4-3 21:55
友好互助条约又不是美日安保条约, 总理那一辈革命家应该不会搞个军事同盟性质的条约给自己找个爹供起来. ...

Trump这个人经商最拿手的就是赖账。不管是银行和供应商，从他那儿要钱都是比登天难。中国要是和他做交易需要极其的小心。以美国现在国内的舆论、共和民主两党的共识，抛弃台湾几乎是不可能的。Trump目前的地位挺弱，回旋的余地很小，比如他一直说联俄，但现在看解除对俄罗斯的制裁已经不太可能。因此就是中国和Trump能达成你说的秘密协议，但美国在朝鲜问题上先得利，中国后来要求Trump在台湾问题上兑现承诺的话，那个秘密协议对Trump来说很可能就会是废纸一张，不会认账的。

作者: cloudian 时间: 2017-4-4 01:29
不大可能有这种惊天变局的吧……

我能想象的最夸张的交易是：朝鲜给韩国，美帝不在38线以北驻军；台湾给大陆，特首直选。

——唉，都不大可能，最后还是呵呵呵呵，维持现状。邓小平说得好，目前的问题解决不了，我们可以先不解决，我们的后代一定比我么有智慧，留待他们解决吧。把锅甩了算了。

作者: 五月 时间: 2017-4-4 07:37

Dracula 发表于 2017-4-3 22:15
Trump这个人经商最拿手的就是赖账。不管是银行和供应商，从他那儿要钱都是比登天难。中国要是和他做交易 ...

小鑫不听话，现在开来我朝也非常不爽。但是直接插手北韩搞政变，一是违反TG的原则，二是成本太高。自己亲戚的熊孩子打不得，隔壁老王突然过来扇了熊孩子一顿，我朝当然开心。

Trump如果打击北韩而又不引发中俄的反弹，将是美国外交上的重大突破。能和世界上最难打交道的两个国家达成一个deal，显然能充分体现Trump一天到晚吹嘘的deal maker的形象。现在Trump内外交困，急需一个突破口。这个勾说不定他会咬。

打小鑫本来就符合我朝的利益，这是deal的bottom line。而如果Trump反悔，TG还是有很大反制措施，并不怕他反悔。

作者: 雨的节奏 时间: 2017-4-4 08:43
一看"北韩"俩字就知道是被洗脑者，写的东西也处处透露着美分键盘局气息

作者: hellotojinge 时间: 2017-4-4 15:31

五月发表于 2017-4-3 22:05
北韩是不是核国家还两说呢.

所谓的核试验到目前为止还仅仅是北韩自己宣布的, 几个大国并没有正式确认 ...

这还有人质疑？朝鲜的核试验已经被中美韩三国确认了，然后美国就是以这个名义要求部署萨德的。

作者: cloudian 时间: 2017-4-5 01:39
原子弹应该是有了的，氢弹没有

作者: Dracula 时间: 2017-4-5 02:30
刚看到的

CAN TRUMP MATCH XI JINPING’S GAME?

http://www.newyorker.com/news/ev ... ch-xi-jinpings-game

The General Secretary does not golf. When Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, assumed control of the Communist Party, in 2012, golf was a popular pastime for wealthy dealmakers. But in an effort to restore the image of public servants, which had been damaged by reports of corruption, Xi closed hundreds of courses and barred members of the Party from playing the game using public money. So, on Thursday, when the Chinese leader pays his first call on President Trump, at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s members-only club in Palm Beach, he will not be replicating the experience of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who gave Trump a putter as a gift and recently played a round with him at Trump International, his nearby course.

Xi might be doing Trump a favor: taking some time away from the golf course, to consider the global economy and the threat of nuclear weapons, might be wise. As late-night comedians have noticed, our new President is golfing, on average, every five and a half days—twice as frequently as President Obama, whose love of the links Trump often mocked. (“Can you believe that, with all of the problems and difficulties facing the U.S., President Obama spent the day playing golf. Worse than Carter,” he tweeted in 2014.)

But Trump’s first China summit may well push the White House off its game in more complicated ways. China occupies a prominent, but loosely defined, place in Trump’s world view. As a candidate, Trump rarely delivered a speech without accusing China of abusing the United States with unfair trade practices and by depressing the value of its currency. “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country,” he told a crowd in Indiana. Although many experts can cite cases of unfair Chinese trade and investment practices, Trump’s portrait of systematic exploitation was misleading. Between 2003 and 2012, for example, the state of Iowa nearly quintupled its exports to China. Its exports to the rest of the world grew barely a quarter as fast. Like Trump’s rhetoric on immigration and refugees, his campaign statements about China succeeded because they conveniently claimed that the struggles of hardworking Americans had vague, foreign origins.

Last summer, Dan DiMicco, a trade adviser to Trump, told me that, to deal with China, the United States should behave like an aggressive patient at a dentist’s office: “Here’s how the patient deals with the dentist: sits down in the chair, grabs the dentist by the nuts, and says, ‘You don’t hurt me, I won’t hurt you.’ ” (If that’s the activity on offer at Mar-a-Lago, Xi might actually sign up for golf.) But Trump’s posturing as a candidate on China was always a case of theatre over substance, and his advisers occasionally admitted as much. Sure enough, once he was in office, Trump began acting like a pliable counterpart. He has not put tariffs on imports or branded China as a currency manipulator, as he threatened. When Trump briefly showered attention on Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province, Xi stonewalled him—and Trump’s resolve liquefied, just as foreign-policy hands in China had predicted it would. When Rex Tillerson, the Secretary of State, visited Beijing last month, Tillerson even recited Beijing’s chosen phrases about “mutual respect” and “win-win solutions.” Why does that matter? It’s roughly the geostrategic equivalent of trying to haggle over the price of a car in a foreign language that you haven’t mastered.

Beijing did not forget the lesson. In anticipation of the summit, Evan Medeiros, an Asia expert at the Eurasia Group, observed that “many in China believe Trump is a ‘paper tiger’ whose focus on short-term gains can be manipulated.” Having concluded that Trump cannot back up his rhetoric, Xi has little reason to accede to Trump’s demands, which include getting China to put more pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear program. The visitors from Beijing also know that, at some point, Trump will attempt a splashy display of confrontation. But Beijing is not overly concerned. Let Trump tweet; Xi is playing a longer game.

Having sent Tillerson home from Beijing spouting Communist Party mantras, Xi’s envoys have turned their attention to the representative they really care about: Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. From a Chinese perspective, Kushner’s role in the White House is a clannish arrangement that they know well. Many of Trump’s current courtiers may be gone in a year of two, but the members of his family will remain. For a while, China appeared to be preparing to endear itself to Kushner in a way that only it can: Anbang, a financial conglomerate with close ties to the Party leadership, was nearing a deal that would have unlocked billions of dollars to help Kushner save a troubled investment in a skyscraper on Fifth Avenue. Last week, the Kushner family announced that talks had broken off, for reasons that were not clear. It’s certainly possible that a surge of negative publicity was making one side or the other uncomfortable.

Not in Beijing’s wildest dreams did they imagine a counterpart with Kushner’s characteristics: trusted by the President, overworked, and undertrained. In addition to his China portfolio, Kushner’s assignments include brokering peace in the Middle East and revamping the United States government. His range of responsibility has become a Washington laugh line. (“Gutter clogged? That’s Kushner’s job. Pants chafing you? Kushner’s on it! Dog need a bath? Call Kush!”) China has not assigned a novice to handle the world’s most complex bilateral relationship, but it will not object if America is inclined to do so.

There is a pattern emerging in the Trump White House. After months of promising to repeal and replace Obamacare overnight, the President took his first sustained look at the issue and pronounced it “an unbelievably complex subject,” telling a roomful of governors, “Nobody knew health care could be so complicated.” He would not be the first President to think that he might successfully wing it on China. In the early days of George W. Bush’s Administration, a reporter asked Bush if the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack. When Bush replied, “Of course,” the reporter looked astonished, and Bush later asked his national-security aide, Stephen Hadley, “Did I say something wrong?” Hadley was polite. “Well, you’ve blown away twenty years of strategic ambiguity,” he said. Dennis Wilder, a former C.I.A. analyst on China and special assistant to the President, told that story recently at the Brookings Institution, in order to illuminate early moves by the Trump Administration. “There are these problems at the beginning of an administration where you come in, you have some views, but they’re not terribly well-founded, and we may be seeing some of this at this point,” Wilder said.

Xi has yet one more reason to arrive at Mar-a-Lago with confidence. As recently as four years ago, Xi and other Chinese leaders fretted, publicly and explicitly, that their people were being seduced by the moral glamour of American democracy—by the openhearted confidence of the “shining city on a hill” and by the ability of a nation founded on slavery to elect its first African-American President. Xi worried that the American example of competence, generosity, and contempt for authoritarianism would, someday, drive his own people to challenge the rule of the Communist Party. Xi has less reason to worry about that today.

作者: concat 时间: 2017-4-5 06:13
没啥好谈...主要是不知道某人开的支票能不能兑现。

作者: 衣香楚楚2 时间: 2017-4-5 08:57
无论是朝鲜还是台湾，按照现在的架势都不能丢。谁要是敢丢那就只能下台了......除非不要挂共产D这个名字了.

作者: 五月 时间: 2017-4-5 09:18

Dracula 发表于 2017-4-5 02:30
刚看到的

好像还是把闯王骂了一通, 没有什么新东西啊

作者: chunfengzhou 时间: 2017-4-5 10:49
互相聊聊天，给各个盟友看看猜猜就可以了。

作者: hellotojinge 时间: 2018-4-30 16:30

五月发表于 2017-4-3 22:05
北韩是不是核国家还两说呢.

所谓的核试验到目前为止还仅仅是北韩自己宣布的, 几个大国并没有正式确认 ...

没确认？

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