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标题: 石油价格 [打印本页]

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2015-4-15 01:15
标题: 石油价格
本帖最后由晨枫于 2015-4-17 07:04 编辑

石油价格继续低迷，产油国都一筹莫展，包括美国的页岩油和加拿大的油砂油。伊朗谈判之后，伊朗禁运解禁在即，油价预期进一步走低，普京也宣布准许向伊朗出口S-300防空导弹，迎来美国的关注。普京要是不知道美国会关注，那就不是普京了。这不是看点。看点在于：伊朗的支付是用原油。如果这是中国出口导弹换取伊朗原油，能够理解。但俄罗斯要这伊朗原油干什么？他们自己的原油都卖不动，再要伊朗原油，不能吃，不能喝，普京在动什么脑筋？转手卖给中国，在理论上可以，在实际上也有问题。据报道，今年中国破天荒大量出口石油，而且达到近十几年的创纪录水平，估计也是石油储藏设施满了，需求又降低了，长期协议的石油没有地方，只好转手投入短期市场。俄罗斯向中国转手这批石油都难。

他当然可以是“牺牲自我，换取大我”，但普京不是那样的“好人”。俄罗斯也没有囤积原油的必要。普京要来伊朗原油，只能认为是他看好出口前景，也就是说石油价格在不远的将来就会上涨，原油马上就要卖得动。莫非他知道什么，而全世界都蒙在鼓里？挠头中。

作者: 冰蚁 时间: 2015-4-15 01:40
普京从来不算这种小账吧。只要能抓紧伊朗就行。普京要在乎这些钱，那他四处放火干什么呢。

作者: fcboliver 时间: 2015-4-15 01:41
中国3月的用电量比去年同期降12%.油价往哪儿涨?

作者: 洗心 时间: 2015-4-15 01:58
借晨大的帖子，大家都来讨论一下油价的中长期趋势吧。

@不爱吱声 @橡树村等专业人士，你们认为油价还会涨回100美元以上吗？
如果会，最早什么时候？

作者: 洗心 时间: 2015-4-15 02:06
抛砖引玉，贴一篇FT的文章

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Oil market’s small fry become big fish

Gregory Meyer in New York
A school of sea bream swim in a sea pen at a fish farm in Limassol, Cyprus, on Thursday, March 27 2014
©Bloomberg

Like the old cartoon showing a school of small fish organised to form a big one, retail investors have become a whale in the oil market.

Uniting as buyers of exchange traded funds, these investors held 180m barrels equivalent of West Texas Intermediate crude futures last week — 30 per cent of the most active futures market.

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The resurfacing of oil ETFs is a sign some investors are again warming to commodities as an asset class after years of poor performance.

But analysts and some fund managers warn that the fat returns of the previous decade are over and the “supercycle”, the long period of tightness in markets from oil to copper that drove these returns, has rumbled to a halt.

“We had the supercycle. And then a couple of years ago the supercycle died,” says Mihir Worah, chief investment officer of real return and asset allocation at Pimco, which manages about $19bn in commodities.

After withdrawing $50bn from commodities in 2013 and another $28bn in 2014, passive investors pumped a net $9.5bn into commodities through mid-March, according to Citigroup.

A big recipient of these inflows has been ETFs tracking oil as prices slumped towards $40 a barrel. The biggest, the US Oil Fund, has absorbed a net $2bn this year.

Investors adding commodities to their portfolios are bucking mainstream opinion. Goldman Sachs, once a prominent commodities bull, says “the trough is yet to come” and favours equities over commodities. Barclays, which has long tracked commodity investment, does not expect a return to consistent inflows this year.

“The environment for investing in commodities has changed. Things are different,” says Kevin Norrish, Barclays’ head of commodities research. “We’ve not got the strong Chinese demand growth we’ve had in the last decade; we’ve not got the supply constraints; we’ve not got the trend of dollar weakening” which tends to support dollar-denominated commodities.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index returned more than 10 per cent in several of the boom years. In each of the past four years it has recorded losses. In 2015 the index is down another 3.9 per cent.

Mr Worah of Pimco says the double-digit returns of years past are “not sustainable”. Instead, he sees “modestly positive” real returns that keep up with inflation and provide insurance against a price shock — say, from oil in the Middle East or wheat from Russia.

Commodities traders once enhanced returns by trading around the money flows that accompanied the monthly rolling of futures-based index products such as ETFs.

“During the days it was being rolled, it was clear the spreads were moving. Everyone knew it was coming. It was a big source of revenue for the banks — massive,” says a former Wall Street commodities executive.

Now that easy money has been arbitraged away, fund managers say.

A commodities selling point was that they generated equity-like returns but moved out of step with stock markets, while keeping up with inflation. This proposition was tarnished during the financial crisis, when all asset classes plunged together. And inflation is not a worry in developed economies.
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The $36.4bn Harvard university endowment, a cynosure of the fund management world, this year cut commodities’ piece of its target portfolio to zero, down from 8 per cent in 2008.

“In prior years, this asset class served as a diversifier in our portfolio, given its negative correlation to publicly traded equity and significant market inefficiencies,” the endowment says in its annual report. “In recent years, we have seen publicly traded commodities become more correlated to emerging markets equity and more populated with speculative investors. As a result, we now consider this area less valuable as a method of diversification.”

The exit of Harvard comes just as correlations between commodities and equities and among commodities themselves again break down.
More video

That does not mean commodities will necessarily bring strong returns again. Oil inventories are bulging in the US and global grain stocks are the highest in more than a decade. China’s growth is slowing. While other countries and regions such as India and the Middle East will need more energy, food and materials, “no large emerging market is likely to rise up to the point where China has now come to a landing”, Citi argues.

One barometer of the commodity doldrums is the lack of public outcry over the “speculative investors” Harvard describes. During the supercycle, consumers and their political allies blamed speculators and commodity index investors for rising prices. Now producers such as Rosneft, the Russian oil company, and Saudi Arabia say speculators are moving the market.

“I believe the price fall can be put down to expectation and speculation. It was not about fundamentals,” Ibrahim Al-Muhanna, a top Saudi oil adviser, said in a recent speech.

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2015-4-15 02:13

fcboliver 发表于 2015-4-14 11:41
中国3月的用电量比去年同期降12%.油价往哪儿涨?

说起来好玩：前两年中国经济火爆的时候，西方媒体一片酸溜溜，都想看着中国经济冷却；现在中国经济冷却了，西方媒体又是一片忧心忡忡，希望中国帮忙把全世界经济拉动起来。

作者: 橡树村 时间: 2015-4-15 02:35

洗心发表于 2015-4-15 01:58
借晨大的帖子，大家都来讨论一下油价的中长期趋势吧。

@不爱吱声 @橡树村等专业人士，你们认为油价还会 ...

今年上一百可能性很低了。

作者: tanis 时间: 2015-4-15 02:36

晨枫发表于 2015-4-15 02:13
说起来好玩：前两年中国经济火爆的时候，西方媒体一片酸溜溜，都想看着中国经济冷却；现在中国经济冷却了 ...

西媒正儿八经的没节操小市民心态~~~

ps， @草蜢

巴西妹纸快来~~

作者: 洗心 时间: 2015-4-15 02:38

橡树村发表于 2015-4-15 02:35
今年上一百可能性很低了。

今年我也觉得不会了。
但两三年内你觉得可能吗？

作者: 橡树村 时间: 2015-4-15 02:44

洗心发表于 2015-4-15 02:38
今年我也觉得不会了。
但两三年内你觉得可能吗？

石油市场，两三年的事情谁都说不好的。影响因素太多了。

作者: 三力思 时间: 2015-4-15 04:13

洗心发表于 2015-4-15 02:38
今年我也觉得不会了。
但两三年内你觉得可能吗？

看这次价格低潮，被收购的小公司数量。光小公司被收购，说明还要掉，等中大公司也有被收购的了，就差不多要到底了。只剩几家寡头时，就是反弹的前期了。产油国私有化国营油井，也是指标。

作者: 孟词宗 时间: 2015-4-15 04:13
石油价格下跌一个很大原因是由于美国大选在即。每次要大选了，油价都会走低。这次因为是大换届所以奥巴马要给民主党更多的支持罢了。

普京拿到石油估计转手就会卖给中国。这没啥卖不动的问题，只有价格问题。

作者: 草蜢 时间: 2015-4-15 04:23

tanis 发表于 2015-4-15 02:36
西媒正儿八经的没节操小市民心态~~~

今天为止，俺的俄罗斯ETF股票终于盈利了。不过巴西妹纸更给力。

俺先后投入了8万美金，以平均每股$5.5价格买进的巴西石油。

今天闭市时，巴西石油每股$8.22

作者: tanis 时间: 2015-4-15 04:27

草蜢发表于 2015-4-15 04:23
今天为止，俺的俄罗斯ETF股票终于盈利了。不过巴西妹纸更给力。

俺先后投入了8万美金，以平均每股$5.5 ...

真给力~！

作者: MacArthur 时间: 2015-4-15 04:31
俄罗斯地大物博，多建两个原油存储罐不是什么难事儿。。。

作者: 草蜢 时间: 2015-4-15 06:17
本帖最后由草蜢于 2015-4-15 06:23 编辑

再次印证了晨大反指的一贯正确。

In Putin, I Trust!

俺相信普京大帝！

哦，不，应该是 in 晨大反指， I Trust！

不管你信不信，反正俺是信了！

俺的俄罗斯ETF股票： RSX已经开始赚了。

俄罗斯股市的斯大林格勒已经过去，胜利在望！

作者: 燕庐敕 时间: 2015-4-15 06:45

草蜢发表于 2015-4-15 06:17
再次印证了晨大反指的一贯正确。

In Putin, I Trust!

这是罗刹国妹纸？

作者: 燕庐敕 时间: 2015-4-15 06:45

草蜢发表于 2015-4-15 06:17
再次印证了晨大反指的一贯正确。

In Putin, I Trust!

这是罗刹国妹纸？

作者: 老兵帅客 时间: 2015-4-15 07:14

燕庐敕发表于 2015-4-14 17:45
这是罗刹国妹纸？

瞧瞧楼上，一看见美女都结巴了。

作者: 青原漫步 时间: 2015-4-15 07:38
普京可以把油转卖给中国

作者: 鳕鱼邪恶 时间: 2015-4-15 08:40
如果中东产油国由于某种不可抗原因全部或大部停产，会怎样？

作者: lorry 时间: 2015-4-15 09:27
需求不足。新闻里常见savings glut，这其实就是需求不足。

作者: 鳕鱼邪恶 时间: 2015-4-15 11:02
万一，沙特倒下了，伊朗的产量能顶上吗？

话说，不记得沙特跟谁打过面对面的战争，万一被揍爬下，也不是不可能的。

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2015-4-15 11:11

鳕鱼邪恶发表于 2015-4-14 21:02
万一，沙特倒下了，伊朗的产量能顶上吗？

话说，不记得沙特跟谁打过面对面的战争，万一被揍爬下，也不是不 ...

谁能把沙特揍趴下？

作者: 大卫 时间: 2015-4-15 11:41
被制裁了这么多年波斯猫身上也实在多少油水可以榨取，还得留着备用。

估计伊朗易货油价足够低，毛子倒手就能赚个差价，就像前些年强买强卖中亚几国的天然气一样

作者: 空气精灵 时间: 2015-4-15 11:57

鳕鱼邪恶发表于 2015-4-15 11:02
万一，沙特倒下了，伊朗的产量能顶上吗？

话说，不记得沙特跟谁打过面对面的战争，万一被揍爬下，也不是不 ...

记得伊朗的油品质量一般，不能和沙特比

作者: 鳕鱼邪恶 时间: 2015-4-15 12:16

晨枫发表于 2015-4-15 11:11
谁能把沙特揍趴下？

IS啥的。。。打非正规战，发现这些王爷国都没戏；其实王爷国连正规战都没正经打过，牵入战火，后果难料。

作者: Salmon 时间: 2015-4-15 13:36
估计是三角易货贸易，最后出钱买油的是中国。牵头的是俄国，投机倒把，利润最肥。

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2015-4-15 21:01

Salmon 发表于 2015-4-14 23:36
估计是三角易货贸易，最后出钱买油的是中国。牵头的是俄国，投机倒把，利润最肥。 ...

今年中国出口油了！没想到吧？这还是2006年以来出口量最大的一次，外界估计中国的储油设施也满了，长期协议购买的油只能转手出口了。由于世界油价低迷，未必赚钱。但是吃不下了，只能这样，流入短期市场。

作者: 中华如龙 时间: 2015-4-15 21:13

晨枫发表于 2015-4-15 21:01
今年中国出口油了！没想到吧？这还是2006年以来出口量最大的一次，外界估计中国的储油设施也满了，长期协 ...

看美国佬的战略要求
油价从来服从美国目标的大局

这个是当今的现实
改变在眼前
但新格局没稳定之前
这个就还是按美国的剧本来唱

作者: 草蜢 时间: 2015-4-16 02:04
晨大反指，料事如神！

@tanis

昨天俺就说了

本帖最后由草蜢于 2015-4-15 06:23 编辑

再次印证了晨大反指的一贯正确。

In Putin, I Trust!

俺相信普京大帝！

哦，不，应该是 in 晨大反指， I Trust！

不管你信不信，反正俺是信了！

俺的俄罗斯ETF股票： RSX已经开始赚了。

俄罗斯股市的斯大林格勒已经过去，胜利在望！