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标题: 波音和英特尔的危机是国家紧急状态 [打印本页]

作者: 四角池 时间: 2024-10-21 21:10
标题: 波音和英特尔的危机是国家紧急状态
A generation ago, any list of America’s most admired manufacturers would have had Intel and Boeing near the top.
上一代人，任何美国最受尊敬的制造商名单中，英特尔和波音都位居榜首。
Today, both are on the ropes. Intel has suspended its dividend, slashed jobs and capital spending, and is a takeover target. Boeing has been hobbled by investigations into crashes and a midair mishap, production delays and a strike. A breakup or bankruptcy areno longer unthinkable.
如今，两人都陷入了困境。英特尔已暂停派息、削减岗位和资本支出，并成为收购目标。波音公司因坠机事故、空中事故、生产延误和罢工的调查而陷入困境。分手或破产不再是不可想象的。
In the past five years the combined market value of the two has fallen by half. More than just an ordeal for shareholders, this is a potential disaster for the nation.
过去五年里，两者的总市值下降了一半。这不仅是对股东的考验，对国家来说也是一场潜在的灾难。
The U.S. is in a geopolitical contest with China defined not just by military power but economic and technological prowess. Leaders from both U.S. political parties say they are on the case, pushing for tariffs and subsidies.
美国与中国的地缘政治竞争不仅在于军事实力，还在于经济和技术实力。美国两党领导人均表示，他们正在处理此案，推动征收关税和补贴。
Whatever their merits, these measures don’t address the fundamental problem that Boeing and Intel represent. The U.S. still designs the world’s most innovative products, but is losing the knack for making them.
无论其优点如何，这些措施都没有解决波音和英特尔所代表的根本问题。美国仍然设计着世界上最具创新性的产品，但正在失去制造这些产品的诀窍。
At the end of 1999, four of the 10 most valuable U.S. companies were manufacturers. Today, none are. The lone rising star: Tesla, which ranked 11th.
1999 年底，美国 10 家最有价值的公司中有 4 家是制造商。今天，没有一个是。唯一的后起之秀：特斯拉，排名第 11 位。
Intel and Boeing were once the gold standard in manufacturing groundbreaking products to demanding specifications with consistently high quality. Not any longer.
英特尔和波音曾经是制造突破性产品的黄金标准，这些产品符合严格的规格和始终如一的高品质。不再是了。
Neither fell prey to cheap foreign competition, but their own mistakes. Their culture evolved to prioritize financial performance over engineering excellence, which also brought down another manufacturing icon, General Electric.
两者都不是廉价外国竞争的牺牲品，而是他们自己的错误。他们的文化演变为优先考虑财务绩效而不是卓越的工程，这也导致了另一个制造业偶像通用电气的垮台。
Intel passed on making the chips for Apple’s first iPhone, thinking it wouldn’t be profitable enough. It was late to adopt the latest technology for etching the tiniest circuits, and it missed the boom in artificial intelligence.
英特尔放弃了为苹果首款 iPhone 生产芯片，因为认为这不会带来足够的利润。采用最新技术蚀刻最微小的电路为时已晚，错过了人工智能的繁荣时期。
Boeing thought it would be cheaper and faster to add more efficient engines to its bestselling 737 with the help of software rather than completely redesign or replace the plane. That contributed to two fatal crashes. Outsourcing of its supply chain and an exodus of experienced machinists during the pandemic contributed to quality problems and delays.
波音公司认为，借助软件为其最畅销的 737 飞机添加更高效的发动机会更便宜、更快捷，而不是完全重新设计或更换飞机。这导致了两起致命事故。疫情期间供应链的外包和经验丰富的机械师的外流导致了质量问题和延误。
Since their problems are of their own making, it is tempting to leave them to their fates. Investors would likely shrug: Intel is worth less than $100 billion while Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia are together worth $10 trillion.
由于他们的问题是他们自己造成的，所以很容易让他们听天由命。投资者可能会耸耸肩：英特尔的市值还不到 1000 亿美元，而微软、苹果和英伟达的市值合计为 10 万亿美元。
The problem: Those tech giants’ software and devices are useless without the advanced semiconductors whose fabrication they contract out, especially to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.If China makes good on its threat to subjugate Taiwan in the coming years, the entire U.S. tech sector could be at Beijing’s mercy.
问题是：如果没有先进半导体的制造，这些科技巨头的软件和设备就毫无用处，尤其是台积电。如果中国在未来几年兑现征服台湾的威胁，整个美国科技行业可能会任由北京摆布。

Intel is the only U.S.-based company capable of competing with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and it is struggling to do so.
英特尔是唯一一家有能力与台积电竞争的美国公司，而且它正在努力这样做。

TSMC is building fabrication plants in the U.S. with the help of $6.6 billion in subsidies from the Chips Act. But it will be years, if ever, before U.S. tech companies are no longer reliant on Taiwan.
借助《芯片法案》 66 亿美元的补贴，台积电正在美国建设制造工厂。但美国科技公司要不再依赖台湾，甚至还需要数年时间。
Intel is the only U.S.-based company capable of competing with TSMC, and it is struggling to do so.
英特尔是唯一一家有能力与台积电竞争的美国公司，而且它正在努力这样做。
While Elon Musk’s SpaceX has outclassed Boeing when it comes to space transport, there are no homegrown alternative suppliers of large commercial airliners. Without Boeing, that business would go to Airbus and, eventually, China’s state-owned Comac, which is now delivering its own competitor to the 737 and Airbus’ A320, the C919.
虽然埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 的 SpaceX 在太空运输方面超越了波音 (Boeing)，但大型商用客机没有本土的替代供应商。如果没有波音，该业务将落入空中客车公司手中，并最终落入中国国有企业商飞公司手中，该公司目前正在推出自己的 737 和空中客车 A320 的竞争对手 C919。
The loss of either company would have industrywide repercussions. Each supports a multilayered ecosystem of designers, workers, managers and suppliers. Once that ecosystem moves offshore, it is almost impossible to bring back.
任何一家公司的损失都会对整个行业产生影响。每一个都支持设计师、工人、经理和供应商的多层生态系统。一旦生态系统移至海外，就几乎不可能恢复。
Rob Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, notes Boeing is the largest U.S. manufacturing exporter, and “is also one of the most engineering-intensive companies in the world, so it is a large R&D spender.” Intel’s failure would deal a body blow to U.S. efforts to shore up the semiconductor ecosystem and reclaim market share from East Asia.
信息技术与创新基金会主席罗布·阿特金森 (Rob Atkinson) 指出，波音公司是美国最大的制造业出口商，“也是世界上工程最密集的公司之一，因此它的研发支出很大。”英特尔的失败将对美国支撑半导体生态系统和从东亚夺回市场份额的努力造成沉重打击。
So, much as national leaders would like to ignore these companies’ woes, they can’t. National security dictates the U.S. maintain some know-how in making aircraft and semiconductors.
因此，尽管国家领导人很想忽视这些公司的困境，但他们却做不到。国家安全要求美国保留一些制造飞机和半导体的专有技术。
Certainly other countries feel that way: European governments heavily subsidized Airbus. China is pursuing dominance in key technologies regardless of the cost. Its so-called Big Fund has sank roughly $100 billion into semiconductors while aid to Comac had reached $72 billion in 2020, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
当然其他国家也有同样的感觉：欧洲政府为空客提供了大量补贴。中国不惜一切代价追求关键技术的主导地位。据战略与国际研究中心称，其所谓的“大基金”已向半导体领域投入了约 1000 亿美元，而 2020 年对中国商飞的援助已达到 720 亿美元。
“Until Comac succeeds in gaining significant global market share, it will continue to run big losses and be bailed out by the Chinese government,” said Atkinson, whose organization gets support from Boeing.
阿特金森表示：“在中国商飞成功获得重要的全球市场份额之前，它将继续遭受巨额亏损，并需要中国政府的救助。”阿特金森的组织得到了波音公司的支持。
Both political parties have bought into the idea that manufacturing is special and thus deserving of public support. That raises the question: which manufacturing, and what kind of support?
两个政党都相信制造业是特殊的，因此值得公众支持。这就提出了一个问题：哪种制造以及什么样的支持？
The goal of manufacturing strategy shouldn’t be just producing jobs but great, world-beating products. Washington can help by encouraging the world’s best manufacturers to put down roots in the U.S. That forces American companies to raise their game and nurtures the workforce and supplier network that serves all companies. The Chips Act, by encouraging TSMC and Samsungto build or expand fabs in the U.S., indirectly helps U.S.-based Intel, GlobalFoundries and Micron (all of which have received subsidies).
制造战略的目标不应该只是创造就业机会，而应该是生产一流的、世界一流的产品。华盛顿可以通过鼓励世界上最好的制造商在美国扎根来提供帮助，这迫使美国公司提高竞争力并培养为所有公司服务的劳动力和供应商网络。《芯片法案》通过鼓励台积电和三星在美国建设或扩建晶圆厂，间接帮助了美国的英特尔、格罗方德和美光（它们都获得了补贴）。
Both presidential candidates oppose Nippon Steel’s bid for U.S. Steel out of deference to the United Steelworkers, who question the Japanese behemoth’s commitment to unionized plants. Yet Nippon’s deep pockets and expertise in specialized steel would arguably make U.S. Steel a stronger, more secure employer.
两位总统候选人都反对新日铁收购美国钢铁公司，这是出于对美国钢铁工人联合会的尊重，美国钢铁工人联合会质疑这家日本巨头对工会工厂的承诺。然而，新日铁在特种钢铁领域的雄厚财力和专业知识无疑将使美国钢铁公司成为更强大、更安全的雇主。
In the early 1980s, with domestic automakers reeling from Japanese imports, President Reagan negotiated export restraints on automakers such as Toyota who went on to set up assembly plants in the U.S. The benefits went beyond the workers they hired and the consumers they served; Detroit was forced to adopt Toyota’s lean manufacturing and continuous improvement system.
20 世纪 80 年代初，国内汽车制造商因日本进口汽车而陷入困境，里根总统就对丰田等汽车制造商实施出口限制进行了谈判，这些汽车制造商随后在美国设立了组装厂。这样做的好处不仅仅是他们雇用的工人和他们服务的消费者；底特律被迫采用丰田的精益制造和持续改进体系。
In 2010, Toyota sold one of its plants to an American startup. It didn’t just provide Tesla with its first factory: It supplied seed capital, a veteran production executive to oversee Tesla’s manufacturing, and, as Musk put it at the time, “Toyota’s legendary engineering, manufacturing and production expertise.”
2010 年，丰田将其一家工厂出售给一家美国初创公司。它不仅为特斯拉提供了第一家工厂：它还提供了种子资金、一位负责监督特斯拉制造的资深生产主管，以及正如马斯克当时所说的“丰田传奇的工程、制造和生产专业知识”。
In the final analysis, manufacturing greatness is foremost a mission for the companies’ leaders and shareholders. They could learn from Musk’s willingness to sleep on factory floors and give priority to product development over earnings per share. When Boeing said last week it would sell new shares to shore up its finances, the stock rallied—a sign that investors understand its future is at stake.
归根结底，制造卓越首先是公司领导者和股东的使命。他们可以向马斯克学习，他愿意睡在工厂车间，并优先考虑产品开发而不是每股收益。当波音公司上周表示将出售新股以支撑其财务状况时，该公司股价上涨，这表明投资者明白该公司的未来岌岌可危。
Labor has a role here, too. Boeing’s union, whose leaders reached a new, enriched deal this past weekend, blamed the company’s woes on management—as did the auto workers who struck Detroit last year. But they are all in this together. Workers should weigh not just what Boeing pays in the next few years, but whether it will be around a generation from now.
工党在这里也发挥着作用。波音公司的工会领导人上周末达成了一项新的、内容丰富的协议，该工会将公司的困境归咎于管理层——去年底特律罢工的汽车工人也是如此。但他们都在一起。工人们不仅应该权衡波音公司在未来几年支付的费用，还应该权衡它是否会在一代人之后继续存在。

作者: 四角池 时间: 2024-10-21 21:11
本帖最后由四角池于 2024-10-21 21:14 编辑

• MV
Marko Vide 马尔科·韦德
38 minutes ago 38 分钟前
Socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor; the taxpayer will pay for the bailout and the management will walk away from the mess with their pockets full.
富人的社会主义，穷人的资本主义；纳税人将支付救助费用，而管理层将满载而归。
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• SB
Scooter Brown 斯库特布朗
39 minutes ago 39 分钟前
Government support for Boeing with high fixed costs and militant unions?
政府以高昂的固定成本和激进的工会支持波音？
What could go wrong? 可能会出什么问题？
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• JB 柔佛州
James Britell 詹姆斯·布里特尔
1 hour ago 1 小时前
Please explain how financialization destroys these large companies, hospitals, and other formerly productive and important entities. How does it do harm on a day to day basis. Apparently a search for increasing profits now destroys companies where before it didn't. Could we at least shun the equity vultures that are weakening our country. Do they have names?
请解释金融化如何摧毁这些大公司、医院和其他以前富有成效的重要实体。它如何在日常基础上造成伤害。显然，现在对增加利润的追求正在摧毁以前没有摧毁过的公司。我们至少可以避开正在削弱我们国家的股票秃鹫吗？他们有名字吗？
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• DK
daniel kaye 丹尼尔·凯
1 hour ago 1 小时前
Great article and an important issue
很棒的文章和一个重要的问题
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• TK Wallace TK华莱士
1 hour ago 1 小时前
You forgot to mention the downgrading of talent through the hiring of the unqualified candidates who check the boxes.
您忘了提及通过雇用勾选复选框的不合格候选人来降低人才级别。I just realized that my two brothers who have passed away both worked at one of these companies. And saw the drawdown in talent as the candidate pool was artificially expanded.
我刚刚意识到我去世的两个兄弟都在其中一家公司工作。随着候选人库的人为扩大，人才出现了减少。And as senior management was forced into a pool of those same unqualified box checkers.
而高级管理层则被迫加入同样不合格的检查员队伍。
(Edited) （已编辑）
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• CD 光盘
Christopher Dennis 克里斯托弗·丹尼斯
1 hour ago 1 小时前
Once the "Bean Counters" have CEO before their name especially for Tech Companies with Engineers, dump the stock ASAP.
一旦“精算师”的名字前面出现了首席执行官，特别是对于拥有工程师的科技公司，请尽快抛售股票。
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• ET
Eric T 埃里克·T
1 hour ago 1 小时前
2 arrogant companies need to eat humble pies. I do hope they survive but they need to change their attitudes. They do lot more than making stuff, they also set a lot of industry standards and protocols which you don't want to be driven by the commies.
2 傲慢的公司需要吃卑微的馅饼。我确实希望他们能够生存，但他们需要改变态度。他们所做的不仅仅是制造东西，他们还制定了许多行业标准和协议，你不希望这些标准和协议被共产主义所驱动。
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• DD
donald e dunbar 唐纳德·邓巴
1 hour ago 1 小时前
The fundamental problem is that the C suite folks [and their minions] looted the company for their own financial benefit with zero thought to the future once they left. Their fidelity was not to the company, the shareholders, or the common good, their fidelity was to their wallets.
根本问题在于，高管们（及其下属）为了自己的经济利益而掠夺了公司，一旦离开，他们对未来的想法为零。他们的忠诚不是对公司、股东或公共利益，而是对自己的钱包的忠诚。
They used the rubric shareholder value as a fig leaf to loot the company for their personal gain. They did massive share buy backs instead of investing in the next generation of products.
他们利用股东价值作为遮羞布，掠夺公司以谋取个人利益。他们进行了大量股票回购，而不是投资下一代产品。
They ran Boeing like the product was hamburgers & fries, not extremely complex machines i.e. cut costs [regardless of future consequences], milked existing products, and put off real future investment until they got their severance packages.
他们经营波音公司就像产品是汉堡包和薯条，而不是极其复杂的机器，即削减成本（无论未来的后果），榨取现有产品，并推迟真正的未来投资，直到他们得到遣散费。
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• GH 生长激素
Gerard Hekker 杰拉德·赫克
1 hour ago 1 小时前
Short-term business and financial management planning in key industry sectors is a "national emergency"?.
重点行业部门的短期经营和财务管理规划是“国家紧急状态”？Gee, who would have thought....?

作者: 大黑蚊子 时间: 2024-10-21 23:55
今天的WSJ文章吧
我也看到了这篇

作者: semtex 时间: 2024-10-22 00:03
很多年前，我在WSJ读过一篇文章。主要是比较高盛和丰田。意思说两个利润差不多，而高盛干的活高级多了。我当时就被这神论震了。这是纯SB啊。可是这是当年的主流观点。

作者: 征久仁 时间: 2024-10-22 01:24

semtex 发表于 2024-10-22 00:03
很多年前，我在WSJ读过一篇文章。主要是比较高盛和丰田。意思说两个利润差不多，而高盛干的活高级多了。我 ...

传闻高盛要收购因特尔了。
如果成真，我预估高盛会第一时间出售因特尔亏钱的生产工厂。
轻资产才是我大美利坚的核心。

作者: semtex 时间: 2024-10-22 02:04

征久仁发表于 2024-10-22 01:24
传闻高盛要收购因特尔了。
如果成真，我预估高盛会第一时间出售因特尔亏钱的生产工厂。
轻资产才是我大美 ...

那就真完蛋了。高盛知道啥，就是拆拆，变现。

作者: togo 时间: 2024-10-22 02:40

semtex 发表于 2024-10-21 10:04
那就真完蛋了。高盛知道啥，就是拆拆，变现。

同意，这帮人就是看报表，买卖资产，根本不是经营企业。我们公司去年来了两个部门总裁，从boston consulting, McKinsey来的。开始折腾。第一件事是合并了内部的若干部门，开了几百人。又说公司Cash Flow好，就买了两个垃圾级公司。

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2024-10-22 03:02

semtex 发表于 2024-10-21 10:03
很多年前，我在WSJ读过一篇文章。主要是比较高盛和丰田。意思说两个利润差不多，而高盛干的活高级多了。我 ...

20年前我还在无线电上听到一个美国母亲的高论：我孩子为什么需要辛苦读书？让中国人、印度人去读书好了，只需要确保他们为我孩子干活就行。

作者: yanei 时间: 2024-10-22 04:49
本帖最后由 yanei 于 2024-10-22 04:52 编辑

晨枫发表于 2024-10-22 03:02
20年前我还在无线电上听到一个美国母亲的高论：我孩子为什么需要辛苦读书？让中国人、印度人去读书好了， ...

那时就是这种想法。干活挣钱低级，玩钱生钱才高级。其实就是劳心者治人，劳力者（现代社会这个包括蓝领和所有干理工农医的）治于人。作为每个个体这么想可以，问题是全社会都劳心，没人劳力就要出大问题。

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2024-10-22 04:54

yanei 发表于 2024-10-21 14:49
那时就是这种想法。干活挣钱低级，玩钱生钱才高级。其实就是劳心者治人，劳力者（现代社会这个包括蓝领 ...

而且事实上有那么多人劳不了心，只能劳力。

作者: yanei 时间: 2024-10-22 05:01
本帖最后由 yanei 于 2024-10-22 05:20 编辑

晨枫发表于 2024-10-22 04:54
而且事实上有那么多人劳不了心，只能劳力。

要命的是现在好多人劳不了心也不去劳力。而且那时劳心者们发现世界上劳力者们取之不尽用之不竭。然后建设出了一个超级大国的美国劳力者们从三四十年前就开始凋零了。

作者: 天狼星 时间: 2024-10-22 07:52

晨枫发表于 2024-10-22 03:02
20年前我还在无线电上听到一个美国母亲的高论：我孩子为什么需要辛苦读书？让中国人、印度人去读书好了， ...

呵呵，那时候确实是你们刀快，现在是谁的刀快？

作者: 史节 时间: 2024-10-22 08:49

semtex 发表于 2024-10-22 00:03
很多年前，我在WSJ读过一篇文章。主要是比较高盛和丰田。意思说两个利润差不多，而高盛干的活高级多了。我 ...

说到底这还是国家缺乏历史沉淀。如果他们历史上有过几次底层翻天杀光公卿，天下大乱沸反盈天的历史，估计就不会有自己永远高人一等的思维了。而是要老老实实的琢磨如何将刀把子握在自己手里了。

作者: drknight 时间: 2024-10-22 10:06

征久仁发表于 2024-10-22 01:24
传闻高盛要收购因特尔了。
如果成真，我预估高盛会第一时间出售因特尔亏钱的生产工厂。
轻资产才是我大美 ...

听到高通想收购因特尔，高盛没法想象

作者: 四角池 时间: 2024-10-22 10:15

drknight 发表于 2024-10-22 10:06
听到高通想收购因特尔，高盛没法想象

高通是想收购分拆后的英特尔，把优质资产拿走， fab还是让intel折腾。。。
Intel要是同意才sb了

所以有人就赤裸裸的呼吁国家补助了

作者: 五月 时间: 2024-10-22 11:51

史节发表于 2024-10-22 08:49
说到底这还是国家缺乏历史沉淀。如果他们历史上有过几次底层翻天杀光公卿，天下大乱沸反盈天的历史，估计 ...

属实。

揽镜可以正衣冠，读史可以知兴衰。

燃鹅美帝只经历过兴，还没经历过衰，因此读史除了“兴”啥也不知道。

作者: 晨枫 时间: 2024-10-22 13:19

五月发表于 2024-10-21 21:51
属实。

揽镜可以正衣冠，读史可以知兴衰。

也不全是。美国毕竟是英国和老欧洲的延续，欧洲历史还是读的。

作者: 孟词宗 时间: 2024-10-23 06:37

晨枫发表于 2024-10-22 13:19
也不全是。美国毕竟是英国和老欧洲的延续，欧洲历史还是读的。

问题是欧洲除了古罗马时代失败的斯巴达克斯起义，真没有啥大起义，更没有成功的像刘邦，朱元璋那样平民推翻了皇帝自己当皇帝的起义。即使是英国革命和法国革命，虽然砍了国王的脑袋，但英国本来就是两帮贵族互斗，不论是克伦威尔还是后来复辟的查理二世都是贵族。而法国虽然搞了一段平民政治，但上台的基本还是前贵族。就算拿破仑也是贵族，更何况他最后还当了皇帝。

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