The neocons above all seem unable to process that the days of US hegemony are over. It boggles the mind that they are not just eyepoking but escalating greatly with China via the still-planned Pelosi visit to Taiwan in August. As we’ll explain, China is fully cognizant of the fact that Pelosi is number two in line after Harris should something happen to the increasingly addle-brained Biden. And they don’t buy for a second that Pelosi is operating without the explicit approval of the Administration.Note that it’s entirely possible that Pelosi revived her Taiwan trip plan (recall she put it off after coming down with Covid) all on her own. The Pentagon gave her a face-saving out by saying they didn’t recommend it.Pelosi is not only number two in line but has been hostile to the Chinese government for more than 30 years. In 1991 she and two other members of Congress made a stunt on the Tiananmen square where two years before protests had taken place.
China, which is routinely screechy when it is upset about what it perceives to be foreign transgressions, has managed to find new registers in its objections the proposed Pelosi visit.
If the Chinese level of ire is any guide, having Chinese fighter jets deny Pelosi a landing in Taiwan is on the mild end of possible responses. If that were to happen and the plane was escorted to land in mainland China, I could see the Chinese rubbing salt in the wound by not letting anyone in the aircraft deplane.China is considering how to use a Pelosi visit to set far more important precedents. Hu in the Global Times clip above mentioned declaring a no-fly zone or having PLA jets fly with Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan airspace. As the Global Times noted: “That would set a great precedent for the PLA to patrol above the island, which would be far more meaningful than Pelosi’s visit.”There is more incompetence and arrogance to come. Pelosi has now asked other lawmakers to join her on the trip:
As with provoking Russia, the US may be about to get what it sought with Taiwan and find out that the results are not to its advantage. And as an American, it’s depressing to see so much incompetence and arrogance on display.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has invited other members of Congress to join her in a visit to Taiwan next month, signaling that she still plans to make the trip despite the fact that the US military thinks it risks provoking China.Rep. Michael McFaul (R-TX), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Wednesday that Pelosi invited him and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), who chairs the committee.The Pentagon had warned that the trip could mean serious trouble but it is now increasing that trouble potential by moving more forces into the area:
McFaul said he couldn’t go to Taiwan due to a prior engagement but expressed support for the trip. “Any member that wants to go, should. It shows political deterrence to President Xi,” he said. “But she should also pay attention to the military if it’s going to cause a blowback and escalate things.”
Officials told The Associated Press that if Pelosi goes to Taiwan — still an uncertainty — the military would increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region. They declined to provide details, but said that fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would likely be used to provide overlapping rings of protection for her flight to Taiwan and any time on the ground there.That is indeed the dumbest thing the Pentagon could do. More forces in the region means more potential for a screw up where one thing goes wrong and everything escalates into a bloody war:
The biggest risk during Pelosi’s trip is of some Chinese show of force “gone awry, or some type of accident that comes out of a demonstration of provocative action,” said Mark Cozad, acting associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corp. “So it could be an air collision. It could be some sort of missile test, and, again, when you’re doing those types of things, you know, there is always the possibility that something could go wrong.”Yesterday China's foreign ministry spokesperson made it clear that China will not back down:
...
“It is very possible that ... our attempts to deter actually send a much different signal than the one we intend to send,” Cozad said. “And so you get into ... some sort of an escalatory spiral, where our attempts to deter are actually seen as increasingly provocative and vice versa. And that can be a very dangerous dynamic.”
AFP: A US official said that if Pelosi goes to Taiwan, the military would increase its movement of forces in the Asia-Pacific, including fighter jets. What is your comment?Zhao Lijian: Perhaps you missed our briefings in the past few days. We have repeatedly made clear our our firm opposition to Speaker Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan. If the US side insists on making the visit and challenges China’s red line, it will be met with resolute countermeasures. The US must bear all consequences arising thereof.President Joe Biden has refrained from stopping Pelosi's trip plans. Today he is supposed to call president Xi. The Chinese have not confirmed a call so it may not happen. Will Biden ask that Pelosi be allowed to visit Taiwan? If he does he surely will get a quite harsh response.
If anyone tries to separate the island of Taiwan from the country, if anyone wants to challenge China's bottom line, Chinese military will take forceful measures to firmly safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, Qin Gang, the Chinese Ambassador to the US told at a recent event.
The tensions over the question have been escalating in recent days as China has issued six warnings in the past few days on the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's unconfirmed plan of a trip to the island. The Chinese Defense Ministry on Tuesday vowed that if the US insists on interfering, the Chinese military will by no means sit by idly and strong measures will be taken to thwart any external interference and "Taiwan independence" separatist attempts.
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