xiejin77 发表于 3 天前

xiejin77 发表于 2026-6-13 13:54
# 2026 世界杯预测报告：Australia vs Türkiye

- **预测时间**: 2026-06-13 13:32:05


这个算法跑的，蒙特卡洛的土澳赢球标准很高啊。没想到结果居然对的上

xiejin77 发表于 前天 13:01

# 2026 世界杯预测报告：Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

- **预测时间**: 2026-06-15 13:00:45
- **Run ID**: 20260615_130045
- **比赛信息**: 第 13 场 · H组
- **开球时间**: 2026-06-16 06:00 北京时间（原始：2026-06-15 18:00 local）
- **场馆**: Miami Stadium · Miami
- **贝叶斯数据更新时间**: 2026-06-15T12:59:50

## Key Takeaways / 关键判断与结论

- 模型当前最倾向于“客队胜”，概率为 52.5%，领先第二选项 26.3 个百分点。
- 综合置信度为低；模型分歧为 28.4%，分歧越低代表贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛结论越一致。
- 对照 Polymarket，“客队胜”的模型概率低于市场 12.0 个百分点，可用于判断市场是否偏热或偏冷。
- 本次贝叶斯上下文来源为 audited-live，更新时间为 2026-06-15T12:59:50。
- 本次预测已使用手动/外部阵容覆盖默认首发，贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛共享同一套首发名单。

## Synthesis / 综合概率

- Saudi Arabia 胜: 26.2%
- 平局: 21.4%
- Uruguay 胜: 52.5%
- 综合置信度: 低
- 方法分歧: 28.4%

## Bayesian Analysis / 贝叶斯分析

- 后验胜平负: Saudi Arabia 17.5% / 平局 15.8% / Uruguay 66.7%
- Elo: 1450 vs 1673
- lineup: Saudi Arabia 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Abdullah Al Khaibari, Alaa ⁠Al Hejji, Ayman Yahya（幅度 6.5%）
- lineup: Uruguay 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Agustin Canobbio, Brian Rodriguez, Emiliano Martinez（幅度 6.5%）

## Bayesian Evidence Audit / 贝叶斯证据审计

- Elo available: 可用
- Lineups trusted: 不可用
- Injuries trusted: 不可用
- Recent form trusted: 可用
- Weather available: 可用
- Pitch available: 可用
- Referee available: 不可用
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.78
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.78
- 原始伤停线索 7 条仅保存审计；未匹配或低可信内容不入模。

## Monte Carlo / 蒙特卡洛模拟

- 模拟次数: 10000
- 90分钟胜平负: Saudi Arabia 34.8% / 平局 26.9% / Uruguay 38.2%
- 平均进球: 1.17 - 1.24
- 90分钟结果: Saudi Arabia 34.8% / 平局 26.9% / Uruguay 38.2%

## Simulation Parameters / 模拟参数与外部因素

- 随机种子: 1235697829
- 模拟规则: 小组赛，90分钟允许平局
- 天气: 晴朗; 温度 27.3°C; 风速 16 km/h; 湿度 78%; 来源 open-meteo
- 场地: 草皮 unknown，质量 正常
- 旅行/休息: 主队休息 7 天，客队休息 7 天，主队旅程 0 km，客队旅程 0 km
- 因素影响: 未启用明显天气/场地调制，按中性条件模拟。

## Injury Mapping / 伤停映射

- 暂无可映射伤停，Monte Carlo 阵容保持默认。

## Lineups / 阵容来源与匹配状态

- 主队 Saudi Arabia: 4-3-3 / manual / confirmed / confidence 0.78
- 首发: Ahmed Alkassar, Abdulelah Al Amri, Ali Majrashi, Hassan Kadesh, Hassan Tambakti, Abdullah Al Khaibari, Alaa ⁠Al Hejji, Ayman Yahya, Abdullah Al Hamdan, Feras Al Brikan, Saleh Al Shehri
- 客队 Uruguay: 4-3-3 / manual / confirmed / confidence 0.78
- 首发: Fernando Muslera, Guillermo Varela, Joaquin Piquerez, Jose Maria Gimenez, Mathias Olivera, Agustin Canobbio, Brian Rodriguez, Emiliano Martinez, Darwin Nunez, Facundo Pellistri, Federico Vinas

## Diagnosis / 综合诊断

- Monte Carlo is higher on home win by 17.4pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 11.1pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Bayesian is higher on away win by 28.4pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (2 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.

## Market Comparison / Polymarket 概率对照

- 市场来源: The Odds API
- 市场问题: Bookmaker h2h odds: Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay
- 市场更新时间: 2026-06-15T12:59:50
- 主队胜: 模型 26.2% / Polymarket 13.2% / 差值 +13.0pp
- 平局: 模型 21.4% / Polymarket 22.3% / 差值 -1.0pp
- 客队胜: 模型 52.5% / Polymarket 64.5% / 差值 -12.0pp

## Engine Raw Output / 引擎原始输出

# Match Prediction Report
## World Cup 2026 Group Stage: Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

- **Venue**: neutral
- **Referee**: TBD
- **Confidence**: LOW
- **Shared Baseline**: group / context quality 0.67

## Summary

| Outcome | Bayesian | Monte Carlo | Averaged |
|---------|----------|-------------|----------|
| Saudi Arabia Win | 17.5% | 34.8% | 26.2% |
| Draw | 15.8% | 26.9% | 21.4% |
| Uruguay Win | 66.7% | 38.2% | 52.5% |

## Layer 1: Bayesian Analysis

### P0 (Elo Prior)
- Saudi Arabia Elo: 1450
- Uruguay Elo: 1673
- P0: Saudi Arabia 17.4% / Draw 16.2% / Uruguay 66.4%

### Likelihood Updates
- Saudi Arabia 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Abdullah Al Khaibari, Alaa ⁠Al Hejji, Ayman Yahya (±6%) — lineup
- Uruguay 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Agustin Canobbio, Brian Rodriguez, Emiliano Martinez (±6%) — lineup

### P1 (Final Bayesian)
- Saudi Arabia: 17.5%|Draw: 15.8%|Uruguay: 66.7%

## Layer 2: Monte Carlo (FM-Style)

- Simulations: 10,000
- Avg Goals: Saudi Arabia 1.17 / Uruguay 1.24 / Total 2.41
- Avg Shots: Saudi Arabia 16.9 / Uruguay 18.4
- Conversion: Saudi Arabia 6.9% / Uruguay 6.8%
- Avg Cards: 3.6

### Top Scorelines
- Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay: 12.8%
- Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay: 10.7%
- Saudi Arabia 1-0 Uruguay: 10.5%
- Saudi Arabia 0-0 Uruguay: 8.6%
- Saudi Arabia 1-2 Uruguay: 8.5%

## Layer 3: Synthesis

**Confidence: LOW** (max divergence: 28.4%)
- Method weights: Bayesian 50% / Monte Carlo 50%
- Rationale: Methods diverge materially; averaged estimate is shown, but confidence is low and diagnostics should drive interpretation.

### Divergence Analysis
- Monte Carlo is higher on home win by 17.4pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 11.1pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Bayesian is higher on away win by 28.4pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (2 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.

### Consensus Estimate
- Saudi Arabia: 26.2%|Draw: 21.4%|Uruguay: 52.5%


## Disclaimer / 免责声明

本报告仅供数据分析和赛前讨论参考，不构成投注、交易或投资建议。请理性看待体育赛事结果，远离非法赌博。

xiejin77 发表于 前天 13:04

# 2026 世界杯预测报告：Spain vs Cabo Verde

- **预测时间**: 2026-06-15 13:03:00
- **Run ID**: 20260615_130300
- **比赛信息**: 第 14 场 · H组
- **开球时间**: 2026-06-16 00:00 北京时间（原始：2026-06-15 12:00 local）
- **场馆**: Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
- **贝叶斯数据更新时间**: 2026-06-15T13:02:23

## Key Takeaways / 关键判断与结论

- 模型当前最倾向于“主队胜”，概率为 64.7%，领先第二选项 46.3 个百分点。
- 综合置信度为低；模型分歧为 42.1%，分歧越低代表贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛结论越一致。
- 对照 Polymarket，“主队胜”的模型概率低于市场 24.5 个百分点，可用于判断市场是否偏热或偏冷。
- 本次贝叶斯上下文来源为 audited-live，更新时间为 2026-06-15T13:02:23。
- 本次预测已使用手动/外部阵容覆盖默认首发，贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛共享同一套首发名单。

## Synthesis / 综合概率

- Spain 胜: 64.7%
- 平局: 18.5%
- Cabo Verde 胜: 16.8%
- 综合置信度: 低
- 方法分歧: 42.1%

## Bayesian Analysis / 贝叶斯分析

- 后验胜平负: Spain 85.8% / 平局 9.6% / Cabo Verde 4.6%
- Elo: 1876 vs 1390
- audited recent form: Weighted recent form gap: home=0.60 vs away=0.42（幅度 2.0%）
- lineup: Spain 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Gavi, Alex Baena, Fabian Ruiz（幅度 6.5%）
- lineup: Cape Verde 4-2-3-1 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Jamiro Monteiro, Kevin Pina, Dailon Livramento（幅度 6.5%）

## Bayesian Evidence Audit / 贝叶斯证据审计

- Elo available: 可用
- Lineups trusted: 不可用
- Injuries trusted: 不可用
- Recent form trusted: 可用
- Weather available: 可用
- Pitch available: 可用
- Referee available: 不可用
- 入模: 最近五场加权状态差距达到阈值；已考虑赛事类型、时间衰减、对手强度和主客/中立场，作为低权重贝叶斯证据入模。；置信度 0.55
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.78
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.78
- 原始伤停线索 8 条仅保存审计；未匹配或低可信内容不入模。

## Monte Carlo / 蒙特卡洛模拟

- 模拟次数: 10000
- 90分钟胜平负: Spain 43.7% / 平局 27.3% / Cabo Verde 29.0%
- 平均进球: 1.31 - 1.00
- 90分钟结果: Spain 43.7% / 平局 27.3% / Cabo Verde 29.0%

## Simulation Parameters / 模拟参数与外部因素

- 随机种子: 1235697829
- 模拟规则: 小组赛，90分钟允许平局
- 天气: 晴朗; 温度 25.9°C; 风速 16 km/h; 湿度 57%; 来源 open-meteo
- 场地: 草皮 unknown，质量 正常
- 旅行/休息: 主队休息 7 天，客队休息 7 天，主队旅程 0 km，客队旅程 0 km
- 因素影响: 未启用明显天气/场地调制，按中性条件模拟。

## Injury Mapping / 伤停映射

- 暂无可映射伤停，Monte Carlo 阵容保持默认。

## Lineups / 阵容来源与匹配状态

- 主队 Spain: 4-3-3 / manual / confirmed / confidence 0.78
- 首发: David Raya, Alejandro Grimaldo, Aymeric Laporte, Eric Garcia, Marc Cucurella, Alex Baena, Fabian Ruiz, Gavi, Borja Iglesias, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres
- 客队 Cape Verde: 4-2-3-1 / manual / confirmed / confidence 0.78
- 首发: Carlos Santos, Edilson Borges “Diney”, Ianique Tavares “Stopira”, Joao Paulo Fernandes, Kelvin Pires, Deroy Duarte, Jamiro Monteiro, Dailon Livramento, Kevin Pina, Garry Rodrigues, Gilson Benchimol

## Diagnosis / 综合诊断

- Bayesian is higher on home win by 42.1pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (3 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 17.7pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Monte Carlo is higher on away win by 24.4pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).

## Market Comparison / Polymarket 概率对照

- 市场来源: The Odds API
- 市场问题: Bookmaker h2h odds: Spain vs Cabo Verde
- 市场更新时间: 2026-06-15T13:02:23
- 主队胜: 模型 64.7% / Polymarket 89.2% / 差值 -24.5pp
- 平局: 模型 18.5% / Polymarket 7.6% / 差值 +10.8pp
- 客队胜: 模型 16.8% / Polymarket 3.1% / 差值 +13.7pp

## Engine Raw Output / 引擎原始输出

# Match Prediction Report
## World Cup 2026 Group Stage: Spain vs Cape Verde

- **Venue**: neutral
- **Referee**: TBD
- **Confidence**: LOW
- **Shared Baseline**: group / context quality 0.67

## Summary

| Outcome | Bayesian | Monte Carlo | Averaged |
|---------|----------|-------------|----------|
| Spain Win | 85.8% | 43.7% | 64.7% |
| Draw | 9.6% | 27.3% | 18.5% |
| Cape Verde Win | 4.6% | 29.0% | 16.8% |

## Layer 1: Bayesian Analysis

### P0 (Elo Prior)
- Spain Elo: 1876
- Cape Verde Elo: 1390
- P0: Spain 85.5% / Draw 9.9% / Cape Verde 4.6%

### Likelihood Updates
- Weighted recent form gap: home=0.60 vs away=0.42 (±2%) — audited recent form
- Spain 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Gavi, Alex Baena, Fabian Ruiz (±6%) — lineup
- Cape Verde 4-2-3-1 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Jamiro Monteiro, Kevin Pina, Dailon Livramento (±6%) — lineup

### P1 (Final Bayesian)
- Spain: 85.8%|Draw: 9.6%|Cape Verde: 4.6%

## Layer 2: Monte Carlo (FM-Style)

- Simulations: 10,000
- Avg Goals: Spain 1.31 / Cape Verde 1.00 / Total 2.31
- Avg Shots: Spain 19.3 / Cape Verde 14.7
- Conversion: Spain 6.8% / Cape Verde 6.8%
- Avg Cards: 3.7

### Top Scorelines
- Spain 1-1 Cape Verde: 13.0%
- Spain 1-0 Cape Verde: 12.6%
- Spain 0-1 Cape Verde: 10.0%
- Spain 0-0 Cape Verde: 9.6%
- Spain 2-0 Cape Verde: 9.0%

## Layer 3: Synthesis

**Confidence: LOW** (max divergence: 42.1%)
- Method weights: Bayesian 50% / Monte Carlo 50%
- Rationale: Methods diverge materially; averaged estimate is shown, but confidence is low and diagnostics should drive interpretation.

### Divergence Analysis
- Bayesian is higher on home win by 42.1pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (3 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 17.7pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Monte Carlo is higher on away win by 24.4pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).

### Consensus Estimate
- Spain: 64.7%|Draw: 18.5%|Cape Verde: 16.8%


## Disclaimer / 免责声明

本报告仅供数据分析和赛前讨论参考，不构成投注、交易或投资建议。请理性看待体育赛事结果，远离非法赌博。

xiejin77 发表于 前天 13:06

# 2026 世界杯预测报告：Belgium vs Egypt

- **预测时间**: 2026-06-15 13:06:34
- **Run ID**: 20260615_130634
- **比赛信息**: 第 16 场 · G组
- **开球时间**: 2026-06-16 03:00 北京时间（原始：2026-06-15 12:00 local）
- **场馆**: Seattle Stadium · Seattle
- **贝叶斯数据更新时间**: 2026-06-15T13:06:09

## Key Takeaways / 关键判断与结论

- 模型当前最倾向于“主队胜”，概率为 51.2%，领先第二选项 24.8 个百分点。
- 综合置信度为低；模型分歧为 18.1%，分歧越低代表贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛结论越一致。
- 对照 Polymarket，“主队胜”的模型概率低于市场 8.0 个百分点，可用于判断市场是否偏热或偏冷。
- 本次贝叶斯上下文来源为 audited-live，更新时间为 2026-06-15T13:06:09。
- 本次预测已使用手动/外部阵容覆盖默认首发，贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛共享同一套首发名单。

## Synthesis / 综合概率

- Belgium 胜: 51.2%
- 平局: 22.3%
- Egypt 胜: 26.4%
- 综合置信度: 低
- 方法分歧: 18.1%

## Bayesian Analysis / 贝叶斯分析

- 后验胜平负: Belgium 60.3% / 平局 18.1% / Egypt 21.6%
- Elo: 1735 vs 1566
- audited recent form: Weighted recent form gap: home=0.73 vs away=0.53（幅度 2.1%）
- lineup: Belgium 4-2-3-1 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, Maxim De Cuyper（幅度 6.5%）
- lineup: Egypt 4-2-3-1 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Ahmed Zizo, Emam Ashour, Haissem Hassan（幅度 6.5%）

## Bayesian Evidence Audit / 贝叶斯证据审计

- Elo available: 可用
- Lineups trusted: 不可用
- Injuries trusted: 不可用
- Recent form trusted: 可用
- Weather available: 可用
- Pitch available: 可用
- Referee available: 不可用
- 入模: 最近五场加权状态差距达到阈值；已考虑赛事类型、时间衰减、对手强度和主客/中立场，作为低权重贝叶斯证据入模。；置信度 0.55
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.78
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.78
- 原始伤停线索 6 条仅保存审计；未匹配或低可信内容不入模。

## Monte Carlo / 蒙特卡洛模拟

- 模拟次数: 10000
- 90分钟胜平负: Belgium 42.2% / 平局 26.6% / Egypt 31.2%
- 平均进球: 1.33 - 1.10
- 90分钟结果: Belgium 42.2% / 平局 26.6% / Egypt 31.2%

## Simulation Parameters / 模拟参数与外部因素

- 随机种子: 1235697829
- 模拟规则: 小组赛，90分钟允许平局
- 天气: 晴朗; 温度 26.3°C; 风速 6.7 km/h; 湿度 38%; 来源 open-meteo
- 场地: 草皮 unknown，质量 正常
- 旅行/休息: 主队休息 7 天，客队休息 7 天，主队旅程 0 km，客队旅程 0 km
- 因素影响: 未启用明显天气/场地调制，按中性条件模拟。

## Injury Mapping / 伤停映射

- 暂无可映射伤停，Monte Carlo 阵容保持默认。

## Lineups / 阵容来源与匹配状态

- 主队 Belgium: 4-2-3-1 / manual / confirmed / confidence 0.78
- 首发: Thibaut Courtois, Timothy Castagne, Zeno Debast, Arthur Theate, Maxim De Cuyper, Youri Tielemans, Amadou Onana, Jeremy Doku, Kevin De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard, Charles De Ketelaere
- 客队 Egypt: 4-2-3-1 / manual / confirmed / confidence 0.78
- 首发: Mohamed Alaa, Ahmed Fotouh, Hamdy Fathy, Hossam Abdelmaguid, Karim Hafez, Ahmed Zizo, Emam Ashour, Aqtay Abdallah, Haissem Hassan, Hamza Abdelkarim, Mohamed Salah

## Diagnosis / 综合诊断

- Bayesian is higher on home win by 18.1pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (3 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 8.5pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).

## Market Comparison / Polymarket 概率对照

- 市场来源: The Odds API
- 市场问题: Bookmaker h2h odds: Belgium vs Egypt
- 市场更新时间: 2026-06-15T13:06:09
- 主队胜: 模型 51.2% / Polymarket 59.2% / 差值 -8.0pp
- 平局: 模型 22.3% / Polymarket 24.2% / 差值 -1.9pp
- 客队胜: 模型 26.4% / Polymarket 16.5% / 差值 +9.9pp

## Engine Raw Output / 引擎原始输出

# Match Prediction Report
## World Cup 2026 Group Stage: Belgium vs Egypt

- **Venue**: neutral
- **Referee**: TBD
- **Confidence**: LOW
- **Shared Baseline**: group / context quality 0.67

## Summary

| Outcome | Bayesian | Monte Carlo | Averaged |
|---------|----------|-------------|----------|
| Belgium Win | 60.3% | 42.2% | 51.2% |
| Draw | 18.1% | 26.6% | 22.3% |
| Egypt Win | 21.6% | 31.2% | 26.4% |

## Layer 1: Bayesian Analysis

### P0 (Elo Prior)
- Belgium Elo: 1735
- Egypt Elo: 1566
- P0: Belgium 59.8% / Draw 18.6% / Egypt 21.7%

### Likelihood Updates
- Weighted recent form gap: home=0.73 vs away=0.53 (±2%) — audited recent form
- Belgium 4-2-3-1 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, Maxim De Cuyper (±6%) — lineup
- Egypt 4-2-3-1 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Ahmed Zizo, Emam Ashour, Haissem Hassan (±6%) — lineup

### P1 (Final Bayesian)
- Belgium: 60.3%|Draw: 18.1%|Egypt: 21.6%

## Layer 2: Monte Carlo (FM-Style)

- Simulations: 10,000
- Avg Goals: Belgium 1.33 / Egypt 1.10 / Total 2.44
- Avg Shots: Belgium 18.3 / Egypt 16.6
- Conversion: Belgium 7.3% / Egypt 6.7%
- Avg Cards: 3.6

### Top Scorelines
- Belgium 1-1 Egypt: 12.5%
- Belgium 1-0 Egypt: 11.5%
- Belgium 0-1 Egypt: 9.9%
- Belgium 2-1 Egypt: 8.9%
- Belgium 0-0 Egypt: 8.5%

## Layer 3: Synthesis

**Confidence: LOW** (max divergence: 18.1%)
- Method weights: Bayesian 50% / Monte Carlo 50%
- Rationale: Methods diverge materially; averaged estimate is shown, but confidence is low and diagnostics should drive interpretation.

### Divergence Analysis
- Bayesian is higher on home win by 18.1pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (3 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 8.5pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).

### Consensus Estimate
- Belgium: 51.2%|Draw: 22.3%|Egypt: 26.4%


## Disclaimer / 免责声明

本报告仅供数据分析和赛前讨论参考，不构成投注、交易或投资建议。请理性看待体育赛事结果，远离非法赌博。

xiejin77 发表于 昨天 08:26

伊朗对新西兰的这一场，不知道为什么很多数据源的数据都不齐，我也懒得手工检索填入。只能作罢。

xiejin77 发表于 昨天 09:30

# 2026 世界杯预测报告：France vs Senegal

- **预测时间**: 2026-06-16 09:29:36
- **Run ID**: 20260616_092936
- **比赛信息**: 第 17 场 · I组
- **开球时间**: 2026-06-16 15:00 local（原始：2026-06-16 15:00 local）
- **场馆**: New York/New Jersey Stadium · New Jersey
- **贝叶斯数据更新时间**: 2026-06-16T09:26:22

## Key Takeaways / 关键判断与结论

- 模型当前最倾向于“主队胜”，概率为 50.2%，领先第二选项 22.8 个百分点。
- 综合置信度为低；模型分歧为 23.9%，分歧越低代表贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛结论越一致。
- 对照 Polymarket，“主队胜”的模型概率低于市场 13.8 个百分点，可用于判断市场是否偏热或偏冷。
- 本次贝叶斯上下文来源为 audited-live，更新时间为 2026-06-16T09:26:22。
- 本次预测已使用手动/外部阵容覆盖默认首发，贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛共享同一套首发名单。

## Synthesis / 综合概率

- France 胜: 50.2%
- 平局: 27.4%
- Senegal 胜: 22.5%
- 综合置信度: 低
- 方法分歧: 23.9%

## Bayesian Analysis / 贝叶斯分析

- 后验胜平负: France 62.1% / 平局 17.8% / Senegal 20.1%
- Elo: 1877 vs 1689
- lineup: France 4-2-3-1 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Adrien Rabiot, Aurelien Tchouameni, Manu Kone（幅度 6.5%）
- lineup: Senegal 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Ilay Camara, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye, Habib Diarra（幅度 6.5%）
- simulation factors: Weather condition: rain（幅度 6.0%）

## Bayesian Evidence Audit / 贝叶斯证据审计

- Elo available: 可用
- Lineups trusted: 不可用
- Injuries trusted: 不可用
- Recent form trusted: 可用
- Weather available: 可用
- Pitch available: 可用
- Referee available: 不可用
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.78
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.78
- 入模: 雨雪会降低传控和推进稳定性，贝叶斯侧只轻微提高平局/低比分倾向。；置信度 0.55
- 原始伤停线索 2 条仅保存审计；未匹配或低可信内容不入模。

## Monte Carlo / 蒙特卡洛模拟

- 模拟次数: 10000
- 90分钟胜平负: France 38.2% / 平局 37.0% / Senegal 24.8%
- 平均进球: 0.84 - 0.60
- 90分钟结果: France 38.2% / 平局 37.0% / Senegal 24.8%

## Simulation Parameters / 模拟参数与外部因素

- 随机种子: 1309429543
- 模拟规则: 小组赛，90分钟允许平局
- 天气: 雨天; 温度 26.2°C; 风速 15.9 km/h; 湿度 94%; 来源 open-meteo
- 场地: 草皮 unknown，质量 正常
- 旅行/休息: 主队休息 7 天，客队休息 7 天，主队旅程 0 km，客队旅程 0 km
- 因素影响: 雨雪天气：传球、盘带和射门稳定性下降，比赛节奏降低。

## Injury Mapping / 伤停映射

- 暂无可映射伤停，Monte Carlo 阵容保持默认。

## Lineups / 阵容来源与匹配状态

- 主队 France: 4-2-3-1 / manual / confirmed / confidence 0.78
- 首发: Brice Samba, Dayot Upamecano, Ibrahima Konate, Jules Kounde, Lucas Digne, Adrien Rabiot, Aurelien Tchouameni, Bradley Barcola, Manu Kone, Desire Doue, Jean-Philippe Mateta
- 客队 Senegal: 4-3-3 / manual / confirmed / confidence 0.78
- 首发: Edouard Mendy, Abdoulaye Seck, Antoine Mendy, El Hadji Malick Diouf, Ilay Camara, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye, Habib Diarra, Idrissa Gana Gueye, Assane Diao, Bamba Dieng, Cherif Ndiaye

## Diagnosis / 综合诊断

- Bayesian is higher on home win by 23.9pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (3 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 19.2pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (1 factor effects).

## Market Comparison / Polymarket 概率对照

- 市场来源: The Odds API
- 市场问题: Bookmaker h2h odds: France vs Senegal
- 市场更新时间: 2026-06-16T09:26:22
- 主队胜: 模型 50.2% / Polymarket 64.0% / 差值 -13.8pp
- 平局: 模型 27.4% / Polymarket 21.6% / 差值 +5.7pp
- 客队胜: 模型 22.5% / Polymarket 14.4% / 差值 +8.1pp

## Engine Raw Output / 引擎原始输出

# Match Prediction Report
## World Cup 2026 Group Stage: France vs Senegal

- **Venue**: neutral
- **Referee**: TBD
- **Confidence**: LOW
- **Shared Baseline**: group / context quality 0.67

## Summary

| Outcome | Bayesian | Monte Carlo | Averaged |
|---------|----------|-------------|----------|
| France Win | 62.1% | 38.2% | 50.2% |
| Draw | 17.8% | 37.0% | 27.4% |
| Senegal Win | 20.1% | 24.8% | 22.5% |

## Layer 1: Bayesian Analysis

### P0 (Elo Prior)
- France Elo: 1877
- Senegal Elo: 1689
- P0: France 62.2% / Draw 17.7% / Senegal 20.1%

### Likelihood Updates
- France 4-2-3-1 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Adrien Rabiot, Aurelien Tchouameni, Manu Kone (±6%) — lineup
- Senegal 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from manual; key starters: Ilay Camara, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye, Habib Diarra (±6%) — lineup
- Weather condition: rain (±6%) — simulation factors

### P1 (Final Bayesian)
- France: 62.1%|Draw: 17.8%|Senegal: 20.1%

## Layer 2: Monte Carlo (FM-Style)

- Simulations: 10,000
- Avg Goals: France 0.84 / Senegal 0.60 / Total 1.44
- Avg Shots: France 16.1 / Senegal 12.2
- Conversion: France 5.2% / Senegal 4.9%
- Avg Cards: 3.6

### Top Scorelines
- France 0-0 Senegal: 23.6%
- France 1-0 Senegal: 19.4%
- France 0-1 Senegal: 14.4%
- France 1-1 Senegal: 12.0%
- France 2-0 Senegal: 8.6%

## Layer 3: Synthesis

**Confidence: LOW** (max divergence: 23.9%)
- Method weights: Bayesian 50% / Monte Carlo 50%
- Rationale: Methods diverge materially; averaged estimate is shown, but confidence is low and diagnostics should drive interpretation.

### Divergence Analysis
- Bayesian is higher on home win by 23.9pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (3 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 19.2pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (1 factor effects).

### Consensus Estimate
- France: 50.2%|Draw: 27.4%|Senegal: 22.5%


## Disclaimer / 免责声明

本报告仅供数据分析和赛前讨论参考，不构成投注、交易或投资建议。请理性看待体育赛事结果，远离非法赌博。

xiejin77 发表于 昨天 09:44

# 2026 世界杯预测报告：Iraq vs Norway

- **预测时间**: 2026-06-16 09:44:18
- **Run ID**: 20260616_094418
- **比赛信息**: 第 18 场 · I组
- **开球时间**: 2026-06-17 06:00 北京时间（原始：2026-06-16 18:00 local）
- **场馆**: Boston Stadium · Boston
- **贝叶斯数据更新时间**: 2026-06-16T09:43:35

## Key Takeaways / 关键判断与结论

- 模型当前最倾向于“客队胜”，概率为 44.5%，领先第二选项 14.2 个百分点。
- 综合置信度为中；模型分歧为 12.1%，分歧越低代表贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛结论越一致。
- 对照 Polymarket，“客队胜”的模型概率低于市场 35.2 个百分点，可用于判断市场是否偏热或偏冷。
- 本次贝叶斯上下文来源为 audited-live，更新时间为 2026-06-16T09:43:35。
- 阵容数据存在未确认或未匹配项，建议先在阵容弹窗中手动修正首发名单。

## Synthesis / 综合概率

- Iraq 胜: 30.3%
- 平局: 25.2%
- Norway 胜: 44.5%
- 综合置信度: 中
- 方法分歧: 12.1%

## Bayesian Analysis / 贝叶斯分析

- 后验胜平负: Iraq 27.4% / 平局 22.1% / Norway 50.5%
- Elo: 1455 vs 1551
- audited recent form: Weighted recent form gap: home=0.51 vs away=0.72（幅度 2.4%）
- lineup: Norway 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from expert; key starters: Kristian Thorstvedt, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge（幅度 3.8%）

## Bayesian Evidence Audit / 贝叶斯证据审计

- Elo available: 可用
- Lineups trusted: 不可用
- Injuries trusted: 不可用
- Recent form trusted: 可用
- Weather available: 可用
- Pitch available: 可用
- Referee available: 不可用
- 入模: 最近五场加权状态差距达到阈值；已考虑赛事类型、时间衰减、对手强度和主客/中立场，作为低权重贝叶斯证据入模。；置信度 0.55
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.62
- 原始伤停线索 4 条仅保存审计；未匹配或低可信内容不入模。

## Monte Carlo / 蒙特卡洛模拟

- 模拟次数: 10000
- 90分钟胜平负: Iraq 33.2% / 平局 28.3% / Norway 38.5%
- 平均进球: 1.12 - 1.22
- 90分钟结果: Iraq 33.2% / 平局 28.3% / Norway 38.5%

## Simulation Parameters / 模拟参数与外部因素

- 随机种子: 1309429543
- 模拟规则: 小组赛，90分钟允许平局
- 天气: 晴朗; 温度 23.8°C; 风速 13 km/h; 湿度 40%; 来源 open-meteo
- 场地: 草皮 unknown，质量 正常
- 旅行/休息: 主队休息 7 天，客队休息 7 天，主队旅程 0 km，客队旅程 0 km
- 因素影响: 未启用明显天气/场地调制，按中性条件模拟。

## Injury Mapping / 伤停映射

- 暂无可映射伤停，Monte Carlo 阵容保持默认。

## Lineups / 阵容来源与匹配状态

- 主队 Iraq: 4-2-3-1 / expert / predicted / confidence 0.74
- 首发: Jalal Hassan, Hussein Ali, Rebin Sulaka, Zaid Tahseen, Merchas Doski, Amir Al-Ammari, Ibrahim Bayesh, Ali Jassim, Zidane Iqbal, Youssef Amyn, Aymen Hussein
- 客队 Norway: 4-3-3 / expert / predicted / confidence 0.74
- 首发: Orjan Nyland, Julian Ryerson, Torbjorn Heggem, Leo Skiri Ostigard, David Møller Wolfe, Kristian Thorstvedt, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Alexander Sorloth, Erling Haaland, Antonio Nusa
- 阵容提醒: Iraq: Al-Ammari fuzzy matched to Amir Al-Ammari; please review.；Iraq lineup needs manual review.

## Diagnosis / 综合诊断

- Bayesian is higher on away win by 12.1pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (2 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.

## Market Comparison / Polymarket 概率对照

- 市场来源: The Odds API
- 市场问题: Bookmaker h2h odds: Iraq vs Norway
- 市场更新时间: 2026-06-16T09:43:35
- 主队胜: 模型 30.3% / Polymarket 6.6% / 差值 +23.7pp
- 平局: 模型 25.2% / Polymarket 13.7% / 差值 +11.5pp
- 客队胜: 模型 44.5% / Polymarket 79.7% / 差值 -35.2pp

## Engine Raw Output / 引擎原始输出

# Match Prediction Report
## World Cup 2026 Group Stage: Iraq vs Norway

- **Venue**: neutral
- **Referee**: TBD
- **Confidence**: MEDIUM
- **Shared Baseline**: group / context quality 0.67

## Summary

| Outcome | Bayesian | Monte Carlo | Averaged |
|---------|----------|-------------|----------|
| Iraq Win | 27.4% | 33.2% | 30.3% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 28.3% | 25.2% |
| Norway Win | 50.5% | 38.5% | 44.5% |

## Layer 1: Bayesian Analysis

### P0 (Elo Prior)
- Iraq Elo: 1455
- Norway Elo: 1551
- P0: Iraq 27.9% / Draw 22.3% / Norway 49.7%

### Likelihood Updates
- Weighted recent form gap: home=0.51 vs away=0.72 (±2%) — audited recent form
- Norway 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from expert; key starters: Kristian Thorstvedt, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge (±4%) — lineup

### P1 (Final Bayesian)
- Iraq: 27.4%|Draw: 22.1%|Norway: 50.5%

## Layer 2: Monte Carlo (FM-Style)

- Simulations: 10,000
- Avg Goals: Iraq 1.12 / Norway 1.22 / Total 2.34
- Avg Shots: Iraq 16.8 / Norway 17.9
- Conversion: Iraq 6.7% / Norway 6.8%
- Avg Cards: 3.6

### Top Scorelines
- Iraq 1-1 Norway: 13.3%
- Iraq 0-1 Norway: 11.6%
- Iraq 1-0 Norway: 11.1%
- Iraq 0-0 Norway: 9.3%
- Iraq 1-2 Norway: 8.3%

## Layer 3: Synthesis

**Confidence: MEDIUM** (max divergence: 12.1%)
- Method weights: Bayesian 50% / Monte Carlo 50%
- Rationale: Bayesian evidence posterior and Monte Carlo simulation share the same baseline; equal weights are used by default.

### Divergence Analysis
- Bayesian is higher on away win by 12.1pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (2 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.

### Consensus Estimate
- Iraq: 30.3%|Draw: 25.2%|Norway: 44.5%


## Disclaimer / 免责声明

本报告仅供数据分析和赛前讨论参考，不构成投注、交易或投资建议。请理性看待体育赛事结果，远离非法赌博。

xiejin77 发表于 昨天 09:47

# 2026 世界杯预测报告：Argentina vs Algeria

- **预测时间**: 2026-06-16 09:46:46
- **Run ID**: 20260616_094646
- **比赛信息**: 第 19 场 · J组
- **开球时间**: 2026-06-17 09:00 北京时间（原始：2026-06-16 20:00 local）
- **场馆**: Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
- **贝叶斯数据更新时间**: 2026-06-16T09:46:05

## Key Takeaways / 关键判断与结论

- 模型当前最倾向于“主队胜”，概率为 57.6%，领先第二选项 36.0 个百分点。
- 综合置信度为低；模型分歧为 36.4%，分歧越低代表贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛结论越一致。
- 当前没有可标准化的 Polymarket 胜平负对照，市场概率不进入模型，只作为外部参考。
- 本次贝叶斯上下文来源为 audited-live，更新时间为 2026-06-16T09:46:05。
- 阵容数据存在未确认或未匹配项，建议先在阵容弹窗中手动修正首发名单。

## Synthesis / 综合概率

- Argentina 胜: 57.6%
- 平局: 20.8%
- Algeria 胜: 21.6%
- 综合置信度: 低
- 方法分歧: 36.4%

## Bayesian Analysis / 贝叶斯分析

- 后验胜平负: Argentina 75.8% / 平局 12.9% / Algeria 11.2%
- Elo: 1875 vs 1564
- audited recent form: Weighted recent form gap: home=1.00 vs away=0.66（幅度 3.7%）
- lineup: Argentina 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from expert; key starters: Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Leandro Paredes（幅度 3.8%）

## Bayesian Evidence Audit / 贝叶斯证据审计

- Elo available: 可用
- Lineups trusted: 不可用
- Injuries trusted: 不可用
- Recent form trusted: 可用
- Weather available: 可用
- Pitch available: 可用
- Referee available: 不可用
- 入模: 最近五场加权状态差距达到阈值；已考虑赛事类型、时间衰减、对手强度和主客/中立场，作为低权重贝叶斯证据入模。；置信度 0.55
- 入模: 首发阵容已通过大名单匹配；官方/手动确认权重较高，专家预测首发仅低权重入模。；置信度 0.62
- 原始伤停线索 7 条仅保存审计；未匹配或低可信内容不入模。

## Monte Carlo / 蒙特卡洛模拟

- 模拟次数: 10000
- 90分钟胜平负: Argentina 39.4% / 平局 28.6% / Algeria 32.0%
- 平均进球: 1.20 - 1.04
- 90分钟结果: Argentina 39.4% / 平局 28.6% / Algeria 32.0%

## Simulation Parameters / 模拟参数与外部因素

- 随机种子: 1309429543
- 模拟规则: 小组赛，90分钟允许平局
- 天气: 晴朗; 温度 26.2°C; 风速 3.5 km/h; 湿度 29%; 来源 open-meteo
- 场地: 草皮 unknown，质量 正常
- 旅行/休息: 主队休息 7 天，客队休息 7 天，主队旅程 0 km，客队旅程 0 km
- 因素影响: 未启用明显天气/场地调制，按中性条件模拟。

## Injury Mapping / 伤停映射

- 暂无可映射伤停，Monte Carlo 阵容保持默认。

## Lineups / 阵容来源与匹配状态

- 主队 Argentina: 4-3-3 / expert / predicted / confidence 0.74
- 首发: Emiliano Martinez, Nahuel Molina, Nicolas Otamendi, Cristian Romero, Nicolas Tagliafico, Alexis Mac Allister, Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernandez, Lionel Messi, Julian Alvarez, Thiago Almada
- 客队 Algeria: 4-2-3-1 / expert / predicted / confidence 0.74
- 首发: Luca Zidane, Rafik Belghali, Zinedine Belaid, Ramy Bensebaini, Rayan Ait-Nouri, Ramiz Zerrouki, Hicham Boudaoui, Riyad Mahrez, Houssem Aouar, Fares Chaibi, Amine Gouiri
- 阵容提醒: Algeria: Ait-Nouri fuzzy matched to Rayan Ait-Nouri; please review.；Algeria lineup needs manual review.

## Diagnosis / 综合诊断

- Bayesian is higher on home win by 36.4pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (2 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 15.7pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Monte Carlo is higher on away win by 20.8pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).

## Market Comparison / Polymarket 概率对照

暂无 Polymarket 对照。

## Engine Raw Output / 引擎原始输出

# Match Prediction Report
## World Cup 2026 Group Stage: Argentina vs Algeria

- **Venue**: neutral
- **Referee**: TBD
- **Confidence**: LOW
- **Shared Baseline**: group / context quality 0.67

## Summary

| Outcome | Bayesian | Monte Carlo | Averaged |
|---------|----------|-------------|----------|
| Argentina Win | 75.8% | 39.4% | 57.6% |
| Draw | 12.9% | 28.6% | 20.8% |
| Algeria Win | 11.2% | 32.0% | 21.6% |

## Layer 1: Bayesian Analysis

### P0 (Elo Prior)
- Argentina Elo: 1875
- Algeria Elo: 1564
- P0: Argentina 75.1% / Draw 13.2% / Algeria 11.6%

### Likelihood Updates
- Weighted recent form gap: home=1.00 vs away=0.66 (±4%) — audited recent form
- Argentina 4-3-3 lineup confirmed from expert; key starters: Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Leandro Paredes (±4%) — lineup

### P1 (Final Bayesian)
- Argentina: 75.8%|Draw: 12.9%|Algeria: 11.2%

## Layer 2: Monte Carlo (FM-Style)

- Simulations: 10,000
- Avg Goals: Argentina 1.20 / Algeria 1.04 / Total 2.24
- Avg Shots: Argentina 18.3 / Algeria 16.0
- Conversion: Argentina 6.6% / Algeria 6.5%
- Avg Cards: 3.6

### Top Scorelines
- Argentina 1-1 Algeria: 13.4%
- Argentina 1-0 Algeria: 12.4%
- Argentina 0-1 Algeria: 11.5%
- Argentina 0-0 Algeria: 10.2%
- Argentina 2-1 Algeria: 8.2%

## Layer 3: Synthesis

**Confidence: LOW** (max divergence: 36.4%)
- Method weights: Bayesian 50% / Monte Carlo 50%
- Rationale: Methods diverge materially; averaged estimate is shown, but confidence is low and diagnostics should drive interpretation.

### Divergence Analysis
- Bayesian is higher on home win by 36.4pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (2 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 15.7pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Monte Carlo is higher on away win by 20.8pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).

### Consensus Estimate
- Argentina: 57.6%|Draw: 20.8%|Algeria: 21.6%


## Disclaimer / 免责声明

本报告仅供数据分析和赛前讨论参考，不构成投注、交易或投资建议。请理性看待体育赛事结果，远离非法赌博。

xiejin77 发表于 昨天 09:53

# 2026 世界杯预测报告：Austria vs Jordan

- **预测时间**: 2026-06-16 09:52:47
- **Run ID**: 20260616_095247
- **比赛信息**: 第 20 场 · J组
- **开球时间**: 2026-06-17 12:00 北京时间（原始：2026-06-16 21:00 local）
- **场馆**: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · San Francisco Bay Area
- **贝叶斯数据更新时间**: 2026-06-16T09:52:26

## Key Takeaways / 关键判断与结论

- 模型当前最倾向于“主队胜”，概率为 49.9%，领先第二选项 22.5 个百分点。
- 综合置信度为低；模型分歧为 21.9%，分歧越低代表贝叶斯与蒙特卡洛结论越一致。
- 当前没有可标准化的 Polymarket 胜平负对照，市场概率不进入模型，只作为外部参考。
- 本次贝叶斯上下文来源为 audited-live，更新时间为 2026-06-16T09:52:26。
- 阵容数据存在未确认或未匹配项，建议先在阵容弹窗中手动修正首发名单。

## Synthesis / 综合概率

- Austria 胜: 49.9%
- 平局: 22.7%
- Jordan 胜: 27.4%
- 综合置信度: 低
- 方法分歧: 21.9%

## Bayesian Analysis / 贝叶斯分析

- 后验胜平负: Austria 60.9% / 平局 18.2% / Jordan 20.9%
- Elo: 1593 vs 1420
- audited recent form: Weighted recent form gap: home=0.83 vs away=0.32（幅度 5.7%）

## Bayesian Evidence Audit / 贝叶斯证据审计

- Elo available: 可用
- Lineups trusted: 不可用
- Injuries trusted: 不可用
- Recent form trusted: 可用
- Weather available: 可用
- Pitch available: 可用
- Referee available: 不可用
- 入模: 最近五场加权状态差距达到阈值；已考虑赛事类型、时间衰减、对手强度和主客/中立场，作为低权重贝叶斯证据入模。；置信度 0.55
- 原始伤停线索 5 条仅保存审计；未匹配或低可信内容不入模。

## Monte Carlo / 蒙特卡洛模拟

- 模拟次数: 10000
- 90分钟胜平负: Austria 38.9% / 平局 27.3% / Jordan 33.8%
- 平均进球: 1.24 - 1.14
- 90分钟结果: Austria 38.9% / 平局 27.3% / Jordan 33.8%

## Simulation Parameters / 模拟参数与外部因素

- 随机种子: 1309429543
- 模拟规则: 小组赛，90分钟允许平局
- 天气: 晴朗; 温度 16°C; 风速 10.4 km/h; 湿度 82%; 来源 open-meteo
- 场地: 草皮 unknown，质量 正常
- 旅行/休息: 主队休息 7 天，客队休息 7 天，主队旅程 0 km，客队旅程 0 km
- 因素影响: 未启用明显天气/场地调制，按中性条件模拟。

## Injury Mapping / 伤停映射

- 暂无可映射伤停，Monte Carlo 阵容保持默认。

## Lineups / 阵容来源与匹配状态

- 主队 Austria: 4-2-3-1 / roster-default / needs-confirmation / confidence 0.28
- 首发: Alexander Schlager, Alexander Prass, David Affengruber, David Alaba, Kevin Danso, Alessandro Schöpf, Carney Chukwuemeka, Christoph Baumgartner, Florian Grillitsch, Konrad Laimer, Marko Arnautovic
- 客队 Jordan: 5-3-2 / roster-default / needs-confirmation / confidence 0.28
- 首发: Abdallah Al Fakhouri, Abdallah Nasib, Anas Banawi, Ehsan Haddad, Husam Abu Dahab, Mohammad Abu Hashish, Amer Jamous, Ibrahim Sadeh, Mahmoud Al-Mardi ., Ali Azaizeh, Ali Olwan
- 阵容提醒: Austria: no reliable predicted/recent XI available; using roster-default starters by formation slots. Please confirm manually.；External formation source was not parsed; using local tactical profile fallback.；Austria lineup needs manual review.；Jordan: no reliable predicted/recent XI available; using roster-default starters by formation slots. Please confirm manually.；External formation source was not parsed; using local tactical profile fallback.；Jordan lineup needs manual review.

## Diagnosis / 综合诊断

- Bayesian is higher on home win by 21.9pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (1 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 9.1pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Monte Carlo is higher on away win by 12.9pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).

## Market Comparison / Polymarket 概率对照

暂无 Polymarket 对照。

## Engine Raw Output / 引擎原始输出

# Match Prediction Report
## World Cup 2026 Group Stage: Austria vs Jordan

- **Venue**: neutral
- **Referee**: TBD
- **Confidence**: LOW
- **Shared Baseline**: group / context quality 0.67

## Summary

| Outcome | Bayesian | Monte Carlo | Averaged |
|---------|----------|-------------|----------|
| Austria Win | 60.9% | 38.9% | 49.9% |
| Draw | 18.2% | 27.3% | 22.7% |
| Jordan Win | 20.9% | 33.8% | 27.4% |

## Layer 1: Bayesian Analysis

### P0 (Elo Prior)
- Austria Elo: 1593
- Jordan Elo: 1420
- P0: Austria 60.3% / Draw 18.4% / Jordan 21.3%

### Likelihood Updates
- Weighted recent form gap: home=0.83 vs away=0.32 (±6%) — audited recent form

### P1 (Final Bayesian)
- Austria: 60.9%|Draw: 18.2%|Jordan: 20.9%

## Layer 2: Monte Carlo (FM-Style)

- Simulations: 10,000
- Avg Goals: Austria 1.24 / Jordan 1.14 / Total 2.38
- Avg Shots: Austria 18.2 / Jordan 16.9
- Conversion: Austria 6.8% / Jordan 6.7%
- Avg Cards: 3.6

### Top Scorelines
- Austria 1-1 Jordan: 13.5%
- Austria 1-0 Jordan: 11.8%
- Austria 0-1 Jordan: 10.6%
- Austria 0-0 Jordan: 8.5%
- Austria 2-1 Jordan: 8.4%

## Layer 3: Synthesis

**Confidence: LOW** (max divergence: 21.9%)
- Method weights: Bayesian 50% / Monte Carlo 50%
- Rationale: Methods diverge materially; averaged estimate is shown, but confidence is low and diagnostics should drive interpretation.

### Divergence Analysis
- Bayesian is higher on home win by 21.9pp. Likely evidence-layer effect (1 evidence items) rather than player-chain simulation.
- Monte Carlo is higher on draw by 9.1pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).
- Monte Carlo is higher on away win by 12.9pp. Likely generative simulation effect from squad duels, tempo, or factors (0 factor effects).

### Consensus Estimate
- Austria: 49.9%|Draw: 22.7%|Jordan: 27.4%


## Disclaimer / 免责声明

本报告仅供数据分析和赛前讨论参考，不构成投注、交易或投资建议。请理性看待体育赛事结果，远离非法赌博。
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